Penguins vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: NYR Jarred by Pens Penalty Kill

The Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers will meet for just the second time this season tonight at MSG after the Pens blanked the Blue Shirts, 1-0 a month ago. Pittsburgh leads New York by three points in the Metro but tonight’s home team has a game in hand.

Can Tristan Jarry shut down this New York offense for a second straight time? Will Igor Shesterkin bounce back after getting pulled in his last game versus the Devils? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Rangers.

Penguins vs Rangers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The visiting Penguins opened as -120 ML favorites Thursday night and have stayed put at that price heading into Friday afternoon. The total sits at 6 and leans to the Under. These two met in Pittsburgh last month with the Pens winning 1-0 in a game they closed as -150 favorites and a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Penguins vs Rangers predictions

• Prediction: Penguins ML (-120)
• Prediction: Under 6 (-120)
• Best bet: Under 6 (-120)

Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penguins vs Rangers game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NHL Network

Penguins vs Rangers betting preview

Key injuries

Penguins: Nathan Beaulieu D (Out).
Rangers: Kaapo Kakko F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Rangers head-to-head record since 2019-20

Penguins: 7-3 SU, 34 goals for.
Rangers: 3-7 SU, 28 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 9-1 in the Rangers’ last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Rangers.

Penguins vs Rangers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

We were really high on the Rangers heading into their Tuesday matchup with the Devils but New York made us look silly as they got dusted by New Jersey, 7-4, and Igor Shesterkin was pulled after allowing five second-period goals. The Rags rebuilt their bottom six at the deadline but this team melted Tuesday in what could have been their worst five minutes of hockey this season. Shesterkin and the Rangers will have to have short memories to catch the Pens in the Metro standings, as there’s a great chance this could be a first-round playoff matchup.

It’s surprising that these two clubs have only met once this season, but it’s the truth. Pittsburgh and Tristan Jarry blanked the Rangers at home 30 days ago as -150 favorites with the only goal being a third-period Geno Malkin power-play marker. 

Since that win over the Rangers, the Pens have gone 8-2-2, which equates to the third-best point percentage in the league over that stretch. The offense has been slightly better than average with a 3.17 goals-per-game mark, but defensively and in net, this team has been tough to beat, with a 2.08 GAA across its last 12 games. No team has allowed fewer goals over the last 30 days than the Pens.

Tristan Jarry is not confirmed as of Friday morning, but will likely get the nod. He has won five straight starts and is 7-1 SU since blanking the Rangers a month ago. Jarry hasn’t been bailed out by his offense over this strong stretch — he's single-handedly been winning games. Over those last eight starts, Jarry has allowed more than two goals just once and has surrendered one or fewer goals in four of those games. 

With Jarry holding things down on the backend, this suddenly-deep forward group has become formidable with the addition of Rickard Rakell to the third line. The power play is also heating up with three goals over its last two games and faces a New York penalty kill that has allowed a goal in seven of its last nine.

The Rangers live and die by Shesterkin’s play and it’s the reason why he's in the Hart Trophy odds conversation. However, Igor was chased in his last game after allowing five goals in a five-minute stretch versus the Devils. Over his last eight games, he is 5-3 SU but owns a 3.01 GAA. He’s allowed four or more goals in three of his last five starts and although he can certainly steal this game, Jarry comes into this matchup in better form.

New York relies heavily on its power play to score, as the Rangers own the league’s No. 2 power play. On the season, the Rangers have scored 49 power-play goals and 189 total goals, which works out to a 26% PP goal share — the highest in the league. Pittsburgh has the league’s second-best penalty kill, which makes this a bad special teams matchup for the home side. 

This line should likely be closer to a pick ‘em than Pittsburgh -120, but 10 points aren’t going to push us off the team in better form. Pittsburgh proves a tough matchup for the Rangers and their reliance on the power play. The Pens have already shown that they can beat the Rangers when Shesterkin is on.

Prediction: Penguins ML (-120)

Over/Under analysis

With these two clubs possibly meeting in the first round of the playoffs, this game is going to be real tight and could look an awful lot like their first meeting last month, where the game’s first goal didn’t come until the third period.

That game closed with a total of 5.5, but we’re getting a 6 for tonight’s meeting. 

Jarry stole the show in the last meeting, posting a 27-save shutout. Shesterkin was also on in that game and was beaten just once by a Malkin power-play goal. The game featured just four total power plays as the two clubs have not played each other much this season.

Jarry has been phenomenal of late and has surrendered just 13 goals over his last eight games including the shutout vs. New York. He’ll likely go toe-to-toe versus Shesterkin again, and although he was pulled in his last start, we’d expect the New York goalie to bounce back, as he's still the league leader in save percentage and is likely to win his first Vezina award at season's end.

As we mentioned above, no team is more reliant on the power play for scoring than the Rangers, but facing the Penguins’ No. 2 penalty kill won’t do them any favors. Pittsburgh has killed 22 of its last 23 penalties over its last seven games. 

Pittsburgh comes into the meeting 4-1 to the Under over its last five games while the Rangers are 1-3 O/U in their last four games. This total will likely start to fall closer to the 5.5 with some books already hanging that number. The Rangers have seen a closing total of 5.5 in five of their last nine games and are 3-2 to the Under in them.

With two solid goalies and a Pittsburgh PK that can eliminate the Rangers’ strength, we’re expecting this game to look like the previous meeting that finished 1-0. This total could close at 5.5.

Prediction: Under 6 (-120)

Best bet

With so much on the line and the Rangers getting embarrassed in their last meeting, this game is going to be tight. Both offenses sit outside the Top 10 in goals per game this month while the Penguins and Jarry have the best GAA in the league in March.

The last meeting featured two incredible performances from Jarry and Shesterkin and we’d like to assume that Igor bounces back after the abbreviated performance in Newark. 

The Rangers are reliant on the power play while the Pens have one of the best penalty kills in hockey. The Rangers have scored the seventh-fewest 5-on-5 goals this season, while the Pens sit outside the Top 10 themselves. Both teams also sit in the Top 13 in even-strength goals against.

This total also closed at 5.5 in the last meeting one month ago in a game that finished with just one total goal scored. 

Pick: Under 6 (-120)

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