5 NHL Player Prop Bets You Need to Make Before the 2023-24 Season Begins

The puck finally drops on the 2023-24 NHL campaign this Tuesday, October 10 and all signs point to yet another electric chase for the Stanley Cup coming on the heels of a historically high-scoring year in hockey. The league’s rate of 6.36 goals per game was the highest mark since the early 1990s, while Connor McDavid’s 151 points in 2022-23 were the highest total by any player in 27 years.

McDavid will obviously be a key player to watch this season, eyeing his sixth Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s top point scorer, but plenty of fresh faces will also enter the NHL futures fray in 2023-24, including the Chicago Blackhawks’ first-overall pick draft, Connor Bedard — and their NHL odds are sure to tempt bettors.

Will McDavid put up another monumental season? Will Bedard live up to the hype? Can Auston Matthews reclaim his 60-goal form? We’ll dig into all those questions and more in my best NHL picks for the upcoming season.

Best NHL player prop bets for 2023-24

Odds as of October 6, 2023.

1. Connoring the market

All eyes will be on Connor McDavid odds, as usual, entering the 2023-24 season after his historic performance last year. The Edmonton Oilers captain scored 64 goals and 153 points en route to the Rocket Richard Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, and Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s best offensive player in every category. McDavid has now won three straight Art Ross Trophies (and five overall) as the league’s top scorer, as well as three Hart Trophies as the NHL’s most valuable player.

The obvious question, then, is will McDavid be able to keep up the pace this season? I’m not fully sold on another 150-point campaign, but I think he’ll hit the Over on 135.5 points in cruise control.

McDavid is 26 years old and still improving, as evidenced by his career-best 153 points last season — a 30-point improvement over his 123 points in 2021-22, which was his previous personal best. The year before that, the Oilers star established another personal high for points per game with 105 points in 56 contests during the shortened 2020-21 season (1.88 PPG) — pretty much the same clip he scored at last year.

The one factor that should really help McDavid maintain his insanely productive rate is his improved goal scoring. He established another personal high with 352 shots on net last season while riding a career-best 18.2 shooting percentage. It wasn’t necessarily luck, though, as that shooting rate is only 2.6% above his career average, and the underlying numbers like scoring chances, high danger chances, and expected goals were also all career-bests.

Simply put, I expect at least another 50-goal season from McDavid, and with that an easy 135-plus points.

Connor McDavid prop: Over 135.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

2. Put the kid to Bed

There will be another Connor in town this season, as Connor Bedard takes the spotlight in Chicago as one of the NHL’s most anticipated rookies in a long time. From McDavid, to Auston Matthews, to Sidney Crosby, Bedard has already drawn comparisons to pretty much every phenom in recent memory — and with good reason. The Blackhawks’ No.1 pick tallied an incredible 71 goals and 143 points in 57 regular-season games for the Regina Pats of the WHL last season — the highest point total in that league since 1995-96.

We know he’s good, but will Connor Bedard odds to post at least 70 points in his rookie season be worth chasing? That’s the question.

Looking back through recent seasons, the 70-point mark has been a surprisingly rare feat among rookies. Mathew Barzal of the New York Islanders was the last player to do so in his first season, posting 85 points in 2017-18. Before him, Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs came close with 69 points in 2016-17, while 24-year-old Artemi Panarin put up 77 points in his first season back in 2015-16 with the Blackhawks.

It’s a high mark for sure, but I think Bedard will reach it for a couple reasons. For starters, he’ll be given all the opportunity in the world on a rebuilding Blackhawks team that doesn’t have a ton of options. Bedard will likely be playing alongside former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, while being spoon-fed tons of power play time.

The other factor to consider is how high-scoring the NHL has become in recent years. The NHL featured 11 100-point scorers in 2022-23, and eight in 2021-22 after seeing just one 100-point player in four of the previous six seasons. That’s not to say Bedard will join the 100-point club as a rookie, but it does mean that points are much easier to come by these days than five or six years ago.

Connor Bedard prop: Over 69.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

3. Reason to be-Leaf

The Toronto Maple Leafs had an interesting 2022-23 season as they claimed their first playoff series victory in nearly 20 years, but did so with star scorer Matthews performing well below his peak. The sniper scored 60 goals in 2021-22 to claim awards as the NHL’s top goal scorer and most valuable player, but fell back down to earth last year with just 40 tallies — his lowest mark in five seasons.

Are Auston Matthews odds to reclaim the crown as the NHL’s top scorer a wise investment? I believe so, and here’s why.

It’s well-documented that Matthews played through significant injury issues last season as he spoke about a hand injury towards the end of the season. Surgery was even on the table this offseason, but fortunately Matthews was able to make a full recovery without going under the knife and should be primed for a healthy start to the 2023-24 campaign.

When healthy, Matthews has been the NHL’s undisputed top scorer for a while now. The Maple Leafs star leads the league with 299 goals in 481 games since his debut in 2015-16, just edging out Alex Ovechkin (297) for top spot over that span while skating in 27 fewer contests. Matthews has also been a puck-shooting machine throughout his career, with his 1,904 shots ranking four among all skaters since his first game as he averages just under four shots per contest.

Going back to his award-winning 2021-22 season, Matthews led the NHL in goals (60) and shots (348), and scoring chances (407) while ranking second in shot attempts (599) and expected goals (38). If he can manage to stay healthy and keep generating shots and chances at his usual rate, there’s no reason why Matthews shouldn’t be able to rebound with another 60-goal campaign in 2023-24.

Auston Matthews prop: Regular season top goal scorer (+550 at DraftKings)

4. Ovi's Overs

Moving onto another prolific scorer, Alex Ovechkin has his eyes set on an even bigger achievement. The Washington Capitals captain enters 2023-24 with 822 career goals, just 72 shy of tying Wayne Gretzky (894) for the most in NHL history. It was a feat that looked out of reach just a few years ago, but Ovechkin’s unbelievable durability and consistency has basically confirmed that he will soon become the greatest goal scorer in NHL history.

Ovechkin just turned 38, but you would never have guessed based on his form over the past few seasons. The sniper tallied 42 goals in just 73 games last season and had 50 goals in 77 contests the year prior. In fact, since his disappointing 2016-17 campaign where he scored just 33 times, Ovechkin ranks first in goals with 264 in 426 contests — a pace of 51 goals per 82 games. The sniper has hit the 40-goal mark in five of the last six seasons and scored at a 44-goal pace in the shortened 2020-21 seasons (so he’s really more like six for six).

He may be getting up there in age, but I don’t see Ovi slowing down significantly just yet. Bank on Alex Ovechkin odds to put up another 40-goal season and edge the Over on 40.5 goals.

Alex Ovechkin prop: Over 40.5 goals (-115 at DraftKings)

5. Tage against the machine

We’ll close things out by looking at one of the NHL’s most interesting up-and-coming stars: Buffalo Sabres forward Tage Thompson odds. The 6-foot-6 sniper broke out with 38 goals and 68 points in 2021-22 and took another huge step forward in 2022-23 with 47 goals and 94 points, establishing himself as one of the league’s premier scorers and most unique players. Entering just his fourth full NHL season, I suspect that Thompson has another gear as he looks poised to become one of the league’s 100-point players.

There’s tons of hype surrounding not only Thompson but also the Sabres heading into this season, with Buffalo looking to clinch its first playoff berth since 2010-11. The Sabres showed significant improvement last year with 91 points — the club’s highest total since that 2010-11 season — while finishing just one point back of the Florida Panthers for the final playoff spot. Buffalo is expected to be even better this season as young forwards Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Casey Middelstadt, and Jack Quinn should all take steps forward, while Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin provide plenty of firepower from the blueline. Even if Thompson himself doesn’t improve a ton, he should have more help around him to generate more chances and goals which should organically improve his point totals.

Thompson should also see a boost in his usage as he averaged just 18:35 of ice time per game last season, ranking him 70th among all forwards. The fact that he managed to finish 15th in points while playing in relatively limited minutes is a testament to his dominance, and Thompson should easily clear the 100-point mark with a little more opportunity and a better team around him this season.

Tage Thompson prop: 100+ Points (+300 at DraftKings)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic