Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: All Hail Cale

Prop bet #1: Strome slips on third line

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the best defensive teams at five-on-five. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in Corsi For percentage (52.3%) while allowing just 2.18 goals per 60 minutes – sixth fewest.

It’s just the opposite for the Washington Capitals. They’ve scored the third-fewest goals per 60 (2.0) at 5-on-5 while ranking 28th in CF% (46.3%).

Additionally, I also value Pittsburgh only surrendering three goals across three consecutive wins following the holiday break.

So, with Washington center Dylan Strome projected to skate on the third line between inexperienced forwards Matthew Phillips and Hendrix Lapierre, I’m expecting the elder statesman to have difficulty generating quality scoring chances on Tuesday. The trio has only spent 13 seconds of ice time together, and neither Phillips nor Lapierre drives 5-on-5 possession, shot share, or goals-for percentage.

The Dylan Strome odds aren’t baking in the drop to the third line enough.

Finally, while Strome should stick with the No. 1 power-play unit, the Penguins have taken the ninth-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 and sport a ninth-ranked 82.9 penalty-kill percentage.

Dylan Strome prop: Under 0.5 points (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Geekie gives Jackets the blues

The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to give up goals in bunches, so I’m expecting Boston Bruins center Morgan Geekie to mark the scoresheet on Tuesday. Columbus has surrendered the third-most goals per 60 and second-most expected goals per 60 minutes. Additionally, the Blue Jackets have been even worse of late with three or more goals allowed in nine straight games and 12 of their past 13.

Geekie has settled in on Boston’s No. 1 line and registered a point in seven of his latest 10 contests totalling four goals and four assists. I’m also particularly encouraged with the positive regression ahead at five-on-five for Geekie and linemates David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha. The trio has only scored a single even-strength goal for an unsustainably low 5.0 shooting percentage across the past seven games.

It’s important to note that Geekie’s power-play time dropped to just 55 seconds in Sunday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. He had previously been a lock on the No. 1 unit, so the unknown PP role is the only knock here.

Still, I value the Morgan Geekie odds in this market because DraftKings has the total at 1.5 points and not 0.5.

Morgan Geekie prop: Over 0.5 points (+100 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Makar stars against Isles

There’s been a huge uptick in shot volume from Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar since he returned from a lower-body injury against the Ottawa Senators on December 21. The power-play quarterback has registered 23 shots on 38 attempts to skyrocket his per-60 minutes metrics up from 6.53 shots and 16.83 attempts per 60 to 7.23 and 17.01 marks.

Of course, the sweetener Tuesday is the New York Islanders continue to allow oodles of shots and attempts to opponents. The Isles have surrendered the second-most shots (34.86) and attempts (70.98) per 60 for the year, and they dip to league-worst 36.6 and 76.02 marks on the highway. 

Add Colorado checking out with a sixth-ranked 53.0 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, and New York being caved in with a third-last 45.6 CF%, and I’m anticipating the Avalanche putting plenty of pucks on net.

I also value the Cale Makar odds in this market because he’s cleared this 3.5-shot total in five straight and eight of his past 11 contests.

Cale Makar prop: Over 3.5 shots (+125 at Bet99)