A couple of Atlantic Division clubs meet tonight when the sixth-place Montreal Canadiens host the seventh-place Buffalo Sabres. There have now been seven or more total goals scored in seven of Buffalo’s last 10 games and in six of Montreal’s last 10.
Will this game feature another high-scoring onslaught, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sabres vs. Canadiens on Tuesday, November 22.
Sabres vs Canadiens best odds
Sabres vs Canadiens picks and predictions
These two teams play at a fast pace that often leads to high-scoring first periods. There have been two or more total first-period goals in six of Buffalo’s last eight games and in six of Montreal’s last eight.
Those trends should continue in this matchup between two weak defenses. At 5v5, each team ranks 20th or lower in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
This poor defensive play is not shocking from Montreal considering they start three rookie defensemen alongside Mike Matheson, David Savard, and Joel Edmundson. Meanwhile, the Sabres’ blue line tends to be offensive-minded. The absence of defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (on IR with a knee injury) certainly does not help.
Speaking of the Sabres offense, they currently rank in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5. Backing up this offensive-minded team is veteran goaltender Craig Anderson.
Through seven appearances, Anderson owns a .910 SV% and 2.82 GAA. While those surface-level stats are solid, a reality check could be looming for Buffalo’s netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Anderson ranks in the bottom half of the league in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
Across the ice, goaltender Jake Allen is slated to start between the pipes for the Habs. Through 12 starts this year, he is 6-6 with a .898 SV% and 3.33 GAA. At 5v5, Allen ranks just 24th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60.
With plenty of offensive firepower, two fade-worthy defenses, and two below-average goaltenders, the first-period Over should cash yet again.
My best bet: First period Over 1.5 (-155 at DraftKings)
Looking to do some NHL betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
Sabres vs Canadiens moneyline analysis
I would lean towards Buffalo in this contest as a road underdog, although its eight-game losing streak is certainly a major concern. On paper, I trust its goaltending and depth in this contest more, which should be enough to tilt the axis in their favor in what will likely be a coin-flip.
However, the Sabres just cannot seem to buy a win right now, and the end of a three-game divisional road swing will be another tough spot to snap the slide. While their offense has looked strong, the Sabres defense bleeds high-danger scoring chances, which could be detrimental against an opportunistic offense like the Habs.
The game likely goes either way, and there is more value in the Sabres at plus money, although I do not trust this spot considering their losing streak and the fact that this is a third straight road game against a divisional opponent.
Sabres vs Canadiens Over/Under analysis
The Over is a great play in this game, and if you want to go that route, it is just as strong as taking the first period Over (while laying less juice). Quite simply, I am taking the first period Over instead of the game Over because of the trends.
There have been two or more total first-period goals in six of Buffalo’s last eight games and in six of Montreal’s last eight. I expect the Sabres to come out firing in this game as they look to snap a long losing streak on the road against a divisional opponent.
Meanwhile, the one bright spot the Habs possess is their talented young core of forwards. Since head coach Martin St. Louis moved Kirby Dach up to the first line to skate alongside Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, the Canadiens offense has not struggled to find the back of the net.
Sabres vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The first period Over has cashed in six of the last eight games for each of these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs Canadiens.
Sabres vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Centre Bell, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 22, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG-Buffalo, TSN2 |
Sabres vs Canadiens key injuries
