Sabres vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Toronto Hands Out a Buffalo Beatdown

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s home meeting with the Buffalo Sabres riding high after Monday’s dramatic 5-3 win over Washington. The Leafs are big NHL betting favorites but are dealing with issues in net — yet are still in contention for the top spot in the East and sit two points back from the divisional lead.

Are the Leafs a better team with Petr Mrazek between the pipes? Is there any value on the visitors, who come in as the biggest underdog versus Toronto all season? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sabres vs. Maple Leafs.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Maple Leafs opened as massive -400 favorites and have since moved to -425 at the time of writing with a total of 6.5. This is the biggest favorite Toronto has been all season. The Leafs played in Buffalo back in November, which was the second game of a back-to-back, and won 5-4 as -200 favorites with a closing total of 6.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs -2.5 (+110)
• Prediction: Under 6.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Maple Leafs TT Over 4.5 (+110)

Predictions made on 3/02/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, MSG-Buffalo

Sabres vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Key injuries

Sabres: Will Butcher D (Out), Henri Jokiharju D (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ondrej Kase F (Doubtful), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Travis Dermott D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2018-19)

Sabres: 2-7 SU, 28 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 7-2 SU, 39 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Sabres are 2-8 SU in the last 10 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Maple Leafs.

Sabres vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Puck line analysis

The Leafs are possibly coming off their biggest win of the season Monday versus the Capitals. They got some massive play from some struggling skaters and are hoping that production carries over into a game where the Leafs have an 80% implied probability of winning.

Toronto turned two possible embarrassing collapses to the Wings and Caps into a possible point of motivation. That’s bad news for a Sabres team that comes into a packed Scotiabank Arena as +325 underdogs. 

There is an argument that Buffalo is now the worst team in the East with how the Sens and Habs are playing. The Sabres have dropped six straight games and have just five wins over their last 18 games... and those five wins came against some of the worst teams in the league: Ottawa, Montreal, Philadelphia, New York Islanders, and Arizona.

Buffalo has been relying heavily on top-line production which isn’t great news for an underdog on the road with the last change. The Jeff Skinner-Tage Thompson-Alex Tuch line has six goals over the last five games, which might not be too impressive but Buffalo has scored just 11 goals over that stretch. It will see a heavy dose of the Pierre Engvall-David Kampf-Ilya Mikheyev line that's starting to become an elite checking unit, which can also win the possession game.

Limiting the primary scoring is going to make things awfully difficult for the visitors but is there any value on the home side with such a steep ML price?

The Leafs are paying -250 to win in regulation and -170 on the puck line. Their team total is a steep 4.5. They’re starting Petr Mrazek in net, which might scare some bettors who are taking heavy these lines but Mrazek has been the better Toronto goalie of late and has won three straight games.

He hasn’t been elite, but he’s being supported by an offense that is scoring 4.25 goals per game since February 1 and has 15 goals over its last two games. The Leafs can still cover if Mrazek gives up two or three goals, as Buffalo has allowed five goals in its last three games against elite teams in Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas. The Buffalo schedule has been insanely easy over the last 30-40 days.

We know when the price is right to fade the Leafs — and that isn’t tonight. They’ll have a packed arena, momentum from the win over Washington, and an opponent that is one of the three worst teams in hockey. We aren’t reading too much into the previous meeting but the Leafs played poorly in that game and still won 5-4 with Joseph Woll in net.

There isn’t a lot of meat on this bone and this isn’t the same situation as the recent Montreal game, where the Leafs were -395 favorites. However, the Leafs on the PL is the move on a side here but at -2.5 for plus money. If the Leafs have a late two-goal lead, they will almost certainly get a crack to cover with an empty-netter.

Prediction: Maple Leafs -2.5 (+110)

Over/Under analysis

The last meeting had a closing total of 6.0 and we’re seeing a 6.5 for tonight’s match. That meeting saw nine goals in a sloppy battle that Toronto had to score late to get the win. The thing that worries us here is the Sabres’ ability to score two goals. Mrazek and the Leafs held the Wild to a single goal in the team’s last home game and now they’ll have a packed barn to keep them moving.

Buffalo averages 2.39 goals per game on the road and although the Leafs have been more than leaky, a lot of that is on Jack Campbell, who will be a spectator tonight. The Leafs’ recent 3-1 home win over the Wild was a snoozefest and we might not see any empty-net chances with how one-sided we’re expecting this game.

With totals of 6.5, we want two-way scoring and we aren’t likely to see that here. With the last change, the Leafs should be able to match up against the one good line Buffalo has and with the new defensive pairings, Toronto will likely keep it simple with the blue line, which could mean taking fewer chances and doing the easier thing with the puck. 

Yes, we could see the Leafs scoring six goals themselves, especially with the way the top line is playing, but this has the feel of a 4-1 or 5-1 game to us. The last meeting saw a total of 6.0 and Joseph Woll was the starting goalie. The Leafs have allowed 10 goals over the last two road games and that is something Sheldon Keefe is going to want to fix. The Sabres’ anemic offense is a perfect time to clean things up. At 6.0 this is not a play but at 6.5, it’s an Under for us.

Prediction: Under 6.5 (-105)

Best bet

The Sabres have struggled of late and haven’t even had to face a difficult schedule. The good teams that they've seen have had no problem scoring four or more goals. Since January 15, the Sabres have played eight games against teams with a .500 record or better and in each of those games, Buffalo’s opponents have scored at least four goals. 

No line is hotter than the Leafs’ Mitch Marner-Auston Matthews-Michael Bunting line and after the win in Washington, perhaps the William Nylander-John Tavares-Alex Kerfoot line is getting things going. This is the No. 2 offense in hockey since December 1 and should have no problem tilting the ice on the Sabres.

We’d love more than anything to hit the visitors for some of that sweet plus money but we don’t see many advantages for Buffalo tonight. Taking the Over on a team total of 4.5 might seem aggressive, but the Leafs' offense has been a bankable side of late.

Taking the Sabres out of the equation is also something we can get behind with how inconsistent the Leafs' goaltending has been.

Pick: Maple Leafs TT Over 4.5 (+110)

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