The Ottawa Senators have topped the Boston Bruins in each of their first two meetings this season, and the Atlantic Division rivals will hit the ice at TD Garden again on Thursday, January 23.
With Boston reeling along a 3-6-2 stretch and Ottawa ripe for improved puck luck, my Senators vs. Bruins predictions and NHL picks are calling for the Sens to win again tonight in Beantown.
Senators vs Bruins prediction
My Senators pick
Senators moneyline (-123 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators topped the Boston Bruins 6-5 in a shootout on Saturday, and it was the Sens dominating the play with a 63.0 Corsi For percentage and 64.8 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 and 48 overall shots to Boston’s 28.
Ottawa has been solid in the underlying metrics all season at 5-on-5, and they’ve continued the trend out of the holiday break with a ninth-ranked 52.1 CF% and middling 51.5 xGF%. The issue for the Sens during the 6-5-2 run has been a league-low 4.9 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5.
Boston is the perfect opponent for improved puck luck to kick in because the Bruins are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set, and both No. 1 Jeremy Swayman and Joonas Korpisalo saw time during Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to the Devils.
Additionally, Boston has been the complete opposite of Ottawa out of the holiday break.
The Bruins sport a 27th-ranked 45.4 CF% and 29th-ranked 43.6 xGF% at 5-on-5, but they’ve been bailed out by tremendous puck luck reinforced by their fifth-ranked 102.0 PDO. In particular, allowing the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (3.08) and also sporting the 10th-highest team save percentage (.922) is unsustainable.
Of course, the Bruins are also without their No. 1 defenseman. The loss of Charlie McAvoy (upper body) is significant. He plays in all situations with a team-high 23:41 per night, and Boston has already been without top-four stalwart Hampus Lindholm (lower body) since mid-November.
Ottawa makes it three straight wins against Boston tonight.
Senators vs Bruins odds analysis
There has been action on the Ottawa side of this moneyline, and Pinnacle has moved the number from Sens -115 at opening to -123 as of Thursday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was additional Ottawa support based on the Boston starting goalie, too.
Both teams are trending to the Under, and it aligns with the highlighted poor team shooting percentage for Ottawa and excellent goaltending from the Bruins. There has been a small move to the Under 5.5 at Pinnacle, with the shop opening Under 5.5 -103 and the vig increasing to -109 as of Thursday morning.
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Senators vs Bruins odds
Senators vs Bruins live odds
Senators vs Bruins opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+220) | Boston +1.5 (-264)
- Moneyline: Ottawa -115 | Boston +103
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Senators vs Bruins trend
The Senators have cashed the Under in 34 of their last 49 away games (+21.25 units / 40% ROI), and the Bruins have cashed the Under in 29 of their last 50 home games (+8.90 units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Bruins.
How to watch Senators vs Bruins
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | RDS2 |
Senators vs Bruins latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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