Coming off a difficult 4-2 loss as heavy favorites to the USA on Friday night, Canada can still get a first-round bye with a big win and either Sweden or Finland winning in regulation. Despite heading into their Sunday match versus China as massive -6,667 Olympic betting favorites, there is a ton on the line for the Canucks.
How many goals will Canada win by Sunday morning is the real question, heading into the final round of games before the elimination round begins. Check out our free picks and predictions for Canada vs. China.
Canada vs China odds
| Canada | China | |
|---|---|---|
| -6,667 | Moneyline | +2,900 |
| -4.5 (-125) | Puck line | +4.5 (+100) |
| 7.5 | Total | 7.5 |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of February 12, 2022.
Canada opened as casual -6,667 favorites on the moneyline with a puck line spread at 4.5 and a game total of 7.5. China closed as +2.5 underdogs vs. the USA which was a bad line in hindsight while Germany also closed as -2.5 favorites on the puck line in their 3-2 win.
Canada vs China predictions
Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Canada vs China game info
• Location: Wukesong Sports Centre, Beijing, CHN
• Date: Sunday, February 13, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:10 a.m. ET
• TV: CBC
Canada vs China picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Canadians looked like a team on a mission in the first period of their opening game versus Germany but the good times have come to a halt following their 4-2 loss to the Americans — Canada’s first men’s Olympic hockey loss to the US in over a decade. Over the Canadians’ last five periods, they’ve been outscored five to four and were -210 favorites or better in each of those two games. But thankfully for the Canucks, Sunday’s matchup with the tournament’s worst team, China, will produce three points in the standings, but how many goals will the Canadians win by?
Canada enters their matchup with China as -4.5 favorites on the puck line. This line might look long when comparing it to the USA (-2.5) vs. China, but that line was way off. This is a better line and it makes sense that it’s leaning to the 5.5 but is there an argument to be had that it's a little short?
Through six periods, China, who are basically the Kunlun Red Stars of the KHL, have allowed 11 goals and lost 8-0 to the USA in the opener. That game is a great comparison for this matchup. Despite the Canadians being heavy favorites in their meeting with the Americans, the USA and Canada should be viewed as fairly even odds-wise. The USA managed 52 shots against the Chinese, who have given up 93 total shots across two games. China might not start No. 1 goalie Jeremy Smith as he has already played two games and they might want to rest him for the elimination round that each team advances to. If the USA can win by eight goals vs. China, so can the Canucks.
As Canada flirted with a -4.5 puck line versus Germany, perhaps this line should be somewhere around -5.5. Offensively, the Canucks are far superior. With two games under their belts and a loss to light a fire, Canada should come out swinging here in their third game. The top line of Ho-Sang-Staal-McTavish is building chemistry while their energy lines should be able to out-muscle the smaller Chinese team, much as Canada did vs. Germany.
We could easily see a 7-1 Canada win here but honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks hit double digits. The USA scored eight and that was the first game they had played together in Beijing.
We aren’t afraid to hit this big spread in a game that Canada needs to run up the score in order to get a first-round bye.
Prediction: Canada -4.5 (-125)
Over/Under analysis
With a total sitting at 7.5 but a spread of just 4.5, are the books expecting the Chinese to pot two goals? They managed zero markers versus the USA despite 29 shots and scored two goals versus Germany on 16 shots. The total and puck line don’t make much sense and we think the total is more correct than the puck line, which should be 5.5 and leaning to Canada.
Hitting this Over 7.5 is expecting the Canadians to score seven or eight goals. Although we love the Canadians to cover the 4.5 here, we aren’t going to sweat through a one-sided beatdown that likely won’t hit the Over until late in the third.
The one thing the Over has going for it is that Canada needs to score goals to improve their tiebreaker status. The more goals the better as Canada still has a chance to take the No. 4 spot heading into the playoffs, which will be determined by goal differential.
The Canadians have also rode No. 1 goalie Eddie Pasquale for two straight games and will likely turn to Matt Tomkins or Devon Levi Sunday morning. Both will be able to pick up the win but Pasquale is the best goalie on this roster.
Ultimately, there are other avenues we’d rather hit than the game total of 7.5, which include the Over on Canada’s team total or hitting China to score one goal or fewer.
With the uncertainties of goaltending for the underdogs, we’d stay off this total entirely and look at team totals instead of the full game total but lean slightly to the Over.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Canadians need goals and the Chinese are a perfect opponent as they've allowed the most goals so far in the tournament. USA's 8-0 win over China has been the biggest lopsided score so far in the tournament. The Canadians could also see backup goalie Paris O’Brien, who is just 21 years old and owns a 4.51 GAA across eight games for the Kunlun Red Stars this season.
This PL should be -5.5 and doesn’t correlate with the total of 7.5 which is more correct than the spread. Not many books have opened auxiliary markets early so knowing where the team totals are is just speculation at this point. However, if you can get Canada’s team total of 5.5 at better than even money, we’d suggest hitting that instead of the -4.5 at -125 odds.
As for now, we’re happy to lay the juice and hit this PL that's short. There is a reason China was +5,000 to win the four-team division.
Pick: Canada -4.5 (-125)
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