It’s a Group B decider on Friday as France and Germany put their unbeaten starts on the line in a star-studded Men's Olympic Basketball odds matchup.
With big NBA names on both rosters, this could be an instant classic, and my France vs. Germany predictions and free betting picks weigh up the best betting angles for this August 2 clash.
France vs Germany prediction
My best bet
Germany -3.5 (-110)
My analysis
For any of the last few remaining doubters, Germany’s hot start at these Olympics has confirmed that the team’s run to FIBA World Cup glory last year was no fluke. The Germans have looked like a well-oiled machine through two games.
This showdown with France will be their toughest test yet, but I’m still laying the points with Schroder, Franz Wagner & Co. and banking on this deep, cohesive German roster to pull away down the stretch.
Picking against Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert carries some risk, but I see Daniel Theis, Mo Wagner, and Johannes Voigtmann doing just enough on the boards against France’s length, with plenty of shot-making around them.
Setting Wemby aside, this is an aging French core, and that’s another reason for leaning away from the Olympic hosts. This is a relatively quick turnaround after games on Saturday and Tuesday, and that should suit the Germans better.
These teams’ contrasting fortunes against Japan are worth noting too. While Germany cruised to a 20-point blowout win, France labored through overtime before squeezing over the line as some subpar perimeter defense translated to 16 made 3-pointers for the Japanese.
However, it’s the Germans’ playmaking that could tilt this contest in their favor. Schroder and Franz Wagner are both skilled pick-and-roll schemers, and they should be able to pick on veteran Evan Fournier on that end of the floor. Ultimately, they should end up with plenty of high-quality shots.
With a well-balanced team — four players scored 14+ points against Brazil — and recent experience in big games, I like Germany’s chances of covering this small spread.
World-class Wemby leads the way
My Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 19.5 points (-110)
Wemby has been a steady offensive force through France’s first two games, with 19 points against Brazil and 18 points against Japan — but an even bigger contribution from the San Antonio Spurs phenom will be needed to walk away with a third straight victory here.
Wemby went 3-for-5 on triples in his last outing, and a French offense that’s short on dynamic scorers will surely lean on his ability to get a good look against anyone, especially on possessions late in the shot clock.
Sure, Germany’s team defense has been on point at this tournament, but Wembanyama will have a big athleticism edge over all of the German defenders. I like these odds for Wemby to have his best scoring performance of the Olympics and reach the 20-point mark.
France vs Germany same-game parlay (SGP)
Germany -3.5
Franz Wagner Over 2.5 assists
Under 163.5
Schroder has been Germany’s top assist man in each of its Group B outings, but I’m looking at Franz Wagner’s secondary playmaking for the second leg of my SGP as the Germans try to replicate what Japan’s offense did on the way to 90 points against France on Thursday.
Franz had three dimes against Brazil, and he’s coming off a career-high 3.7 apg with the Orlando Magic this season, with his game growing significantly. If the paint is walled off by France’s size, I trust him to make the right read and find an open shooter.
I’m also taking the Under in what feels likely to be a low-scoring scrap. The Germans have held both their opponents under 80 points in this tournament, while the French limited Brazil to just 66 points in their group opener.
Whether it’s the rim protection of Wemby and Gobert or the on-a-string team defense that Germany brings to the table, the offenses are going to have to work hard for every point on Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
France vs Germany odds
| France | Germany | |
| +4 (-110) | Spread | -4 (-110) |
| +155 | Moneyline | -185 |
| Over 162 (-110) | Total | Under 162 (-110) |
Odds as of 8-2.
France vs Germany game info
| Location: | Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France |
| Date: | Friday, 8-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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