France vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Game

The gold medal game in Olympic men’s basketball is set, and it has a lot to live up to after two incredible semifinal matchups.

France put together a gutsy performance to top reigning World Cup champion Germany. As a result, France becomes the first host nation to make the gold medal game in basketball since 1996.

Meanwhile, Team USA finally got tested. They were down double-digits against Serbia almost the entire game until a masterclass quarter by Steph Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant saw them prevail despite trailing by 13 in the fourth.

My France vs. USA predictions for the gold medal game take a look at why Victor Wembanyama hasn’t been producing on offense.

France vs USA prediction

My best bet
Victor Wembanyama Under 16.5 points (-102)

My analysis

I have been skeptical about France for two straight games, and they have proven me wrong with convincing wins over Canada and Germany.

Their offense has looked night-and-day better since they benched Rudy Gobert in favor of Victor Wembanyama, with their more offensive-minded bigs like Gerson Yabusale leveraging their size to do serious damage. Wemby, in turn, has been a defensive monster while providing spacing, allowing his teammates to attack inside.

Despite all those things trending in favor of France, Wembanyama hasn’t been producing points. His role in the offense has allowed France to thrive and score, but his own production and efficiency have not been strong. 

Wemby is down to just 37.5% shooting overall in the Olympics and a grisly 26.7% from deep. As a result, Wemby is averaging 13.8 points per game in the tournament. Despite this, his points prop has come in at 16.5 with negligible juice on the Under.

Wemby’s difficulties could be due to the taxing work that he’s being forced to do on the defensive end. While Victor entered the tournament playing as part of a rim-protecting duo with Gobert, Rudy has now been pushed out of the lineup almost entirely. The result is that France has flourished overall, but Wemby’s responsibilities — and energy expended — have massively grown on both ends.

I don’t expect it to get easier for Wemby on Saturday. Victor has been struggling to score against far inferior defenders than the ones he’ll match up with against Team USA.

Anthony Davis is an outstanding defensive option against Victor, as is Bam Adebayo. If Wembanyama is playing a traditional center role, it doesn’t get much harder to move a player on the block than trying to go through Joel Embiid.

LeBron James also showed in the game against Serbia that he still has it within himself to guard the opposing team’s best player on a switch when it’s winning time, as he took blow after blow in the chest guarding Jokic in the post. 

Guarding Wembanyama, for as skilled as he is, will be nowhere near as taxing if it comes to that, and James will have the strength and experience advantage over the French phenom.

Embiid’s pièce de résistance

My Joel Embiid prop: Over 12.5 points (-113)

While it was Steph Curry and LeBron James who carried much of the load for Team USA — and Kevin Durant who hit the dagger to end all doubt — the Americans would have been lost if not for the efforts of Joel Embiid. 

Embiid finally had his breakout game against Serbia and Nikola Jokic, his biggest rival. It was arguably — given the stakes — the biggest moment of his career, which is saying something for a perennial MVP candidate.

While past play doesn’t necessarily predict future performance, in this case, I think there will be follow through. Joel is going to be highly motivated against France, as they have been booing him relentlessly all tournament long, and Embiid has been giving it right back to the fans in turn. Embiid picked his Olympic squad like a free agent and spurned playing for France despite being fast-tracked a French passport. 

Teams this good need a rallying point, and putting Embiid in position to dominate will be front of mind for many United States players.

What makes me even more confident is that Embiid’s game against Serbia wasn’t perfect. He still got caught baiting for fouls a couple of times and calls did not go his way. But instead of hanging his head, he went about his business and dominated inside, scoring around the rim, but mostly as the elite shooter that he is. 

And it’s the jump shot that makes him so hard to guard, both overall and against defenders like Wemby or Gobert.

France vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

While it was the starters that got it done against Serbia, for most of the Olympics it has been the bench who have done the lion’s share of work building leads for Team USA. But they struggled mightily on Thursday, nobody perhaps more so than Anthony Edwards.

Edwards had been leading the team in points per game despite coming off the bench, but all of his worst tendencies emerged in the pressure cooker of a game that was the semifinal. He was shooting too much, turning the ball over, losing his man on defense, and generally looked like he was trying to win the game by himself. That’s why his points prop has dipped below double-digits here.

But Edwards has scored 11 or better in every other game in the tournament. He’s averaging 13.8 points despite his two-point dud against Serbia and I think despite the stakes, there’s every chance that he’ll sub into the game playing with a lead instead of trying to rally from down double-digits.

France doesn’t have the shooting to go toe-to-toe with USA the way that Serbia did. And while Victor might one day be a passing and scoring threat that forces teams to collapse like a dying neutron star the way Jokic does, he’s not there yet. I don’t expect France to test Team USA the same way, and that means Steve Kerr should return to his previous rotations where Ant was a featured scorer.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

France vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-9.

France vs USA game info

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