Djokovic is set to meet a familiar foe in Friday's semifinals, as Italian Lorenzo Musetti has breezed through the Men’s field; yet, he remains a huge underdog to defeat the tennis legend.
Although the Serbian legend inch is one step closer to history, I break down why an upset is looming in my Djokovic vs. Musetti predictions and free picks for August 2.
Djokovic vs Musetti prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Musetti moneyline (+175) - My best bet
Musetti moneyline (+175)
Match analysis
Lorenzo Musetti has come full circle following his fourth-round French Open loss to Novak Djokovic.
Since being served a fifth-set bagel, Musetti has beaten nearly everyone not named Djokovic. The 22-year-old Italian boasts a 65% winning percentage on the dirt during his brief career, and while those numbers aren’t nearly as lofty as Joker’s, Musetti will catch a break here.
Djokovic re-aggravated a recent knee injury during his straight-set quarterfinal victory over Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas, and he could barely run towards the end of that match. Djokovic voiced serious concerns during his post-game on-court interview, and that doesn’t lend much confidence against a big-banger like Musetti.
Musetti is the wrong guy to face on the dirt with a banged-up knee, as he hits consistently from both wings, loves the big rallies, and has always caused a fit Joker major headaches in the past. He beat Novak in Monte Carlo under similar faster playing conditions back in 2023, and he’ll prevail against a banged-up Djokovic on Friday.
Best best analysis
Djokovic was rolling through the field right up until he re-aggravated a recent right knee injury, and had Tsitsipas won the second set, the Joker may have retired.
The 37-year-old Serbian could barely move but Tsitsipas couldn’t find the court. That won’t be the case Friday afternoon when he meets the highly-accurate Musetti.
Friday marks the seventh meeting between the two, and Musetti has given the legendary Serbian fits across their previous four matches. His ability to defend and attack from both wings forces long rallies, and that’s something Joker will need to avoid.
Djokovic has had success attacking the weaker Musetti service game, but the ball is bouncing extremely high thanks to the hot Parisian weather, and his wide slice to the deuce court and heavy kicker to the ad side have already taken down healthier foes such Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz and Mariano Navone.
Look for Musetti to run Djoker into the ground and deny the Serbian his last chance at winning an Olympic gold medal.
Djokovic vs Musetti odds
| Novak Djokovic | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| -225 | Moneyline | +175 |
| -3.5 (-105) | Game spread | +3.5 (-140) |
| Over 22.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-120) |
Odds as of 8-1.
Not intended for use in MA.
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