Morocco vs Spain Semifinal Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Soccer

The U-23 squads for Morocco and Spain will battle in the 2024 Olympic semifinals, just as the senior squads did at the 2022 World Cup.

Morocco defeated the United States 4-0 in a match they controlled from start to finish. Spain defeated Japan to reach the semifinals, but their 3-0 scoreline flattered them as the match was much closer than it indicates.

Find out why I’m expecting an upset in my Morocco vs. Spain prediction and free betting picks for Monday, August 5. 

Morocco vs. Spain prediction and best bet

Atlas Lions roar into Final

Match prediction
Morocco to advance (+138)

My analysis

If you just look at the score, it is easy to think Spain dominated Japan. But the truth is they were fortunate at both ends of the pitch. 

Spain’s first two goals both came on shots outside the box by Fermin Lopez, each of which should’ve been stopped by Japan goalkeeper Leo Kokubo. Their third goal came from a corner kick where Kokubo saw a defender head the ball around him for a tap-in by Spanish forward Abel Ruiz.

At the other end of the pitch, Japan had an equalizer chalked off for a narrow offside in the first half, and they hit the post with a header just before halftime. In the second half they rang one off the crossbar as they tried to get back into the match. 

Spain’s trip through the Olympics has been filled with good fortune, starting with their group stage. They lost to Egypt, the team Morocco defeated in last year’s AFCON U-23 final and who will be playing in the other semifinal. 

Prior to that, they were tied with the Dominican Republic 1-1 before their opponents received a red card just before halftime. And they narrowly defeated an Uzbekistan side that had nowhere near their talent.

Morocco, on the other hand, has been punishing teams with their pressure and excellent counter-attacks. The Atlas Lions beat Argentina before losing in a shocker to Ukraine, but their last two matches have seen them outscore their opponents 7-0 and dominate from start to finish.

The way these teams play favors Morocco. They’re relentless and dog their opponents into turnovers, and they thrive against clubs who want to have more possession. Japan showed that Spain is vulnerable to pressure, and it can be had on the break. 

Morocco won’t waste the chances that Japan did. It might not happen in regulation, but bet on the African nation to book a place in the final when the match comes to an end.

Keepers have work cut out for them

My best bet
Over 2.5 goals & BTTS - Yes (+137)

My analysis

Morocco kept clean sheets in each of their last two matches, but that wasn’t simply because they thrived defensively. The Americans lacked a reliable goal-scoring option in attack, and Iraq posed little threat.

Spain won’t be that simple to shut out, and I’m betting on it not happening at all. Spain has multiple options in attack, led by Ruiz and Lopez. They’ve scored nine goals in the competition, with only Morocco having more with 10.

To that point, the Moroccan side boasts a striker in Soufiane Rahimi who has thriving, with five goals so far. They also have an exceptional attacking fullback in Achraf Hakimi, with the PSG man scoring against the United States.

Neither of these teams know what it means to sit back and defend, and they’re both going to go for the win from the opening whistle. Fatigue is also a real concern due to the short rest time between matches, which tends to impact the defense more than offense as it leads to mental mistakes. 

This should be one of the most entertaining matches of the entire tournament, and I’m expecting at least three goals with neither team keeping a clean sheet. At a price of +137, I love the parlay of the two and would play it as low as +125. 

Morocco vs Spain odds

• Spread: Morocco +1.5 (-460) | Spain -1.5 (+340)
• Moneyline: Morocco +138 | Spain -170
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-129)

Morocco vs Spain game info

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