One of baseball’s greatest international rivalries writes its latest chapter in the Olympic semifinals as South Korea take on Japan with a spot in the gold medal game on the line.
Japan are the only undefeated team remaining in the Tokyo Olympic baseball tournament and have home-field advantage, but the South Korean’s will provide a tough test. Is there baseball betting value in taking the underdog in this spot, or is laying the chalk with the favorite the way to go?
Check out our Olympic baseball free picks and predictions for South Korea vs. Japan and find out.
South Korea vs Japan game info
• Location: Yokohama Baseball Stadium, Yokohama, Japan
• Date: Wednesday, August 4, 2021
• Time: 6:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
South Korea vs Japan betting tips
- South Korea (+215)
- Under 8 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
South Korea vs Japan match odds
South Korea: +215
Japan: -285
Total: 8.0
Over 8.0: -110
Under 8.0: -110
South Korea vs Japan betting preview
Starting Pitchers
Young-pyo Ko (South Korea): It has been a breakout year for Ko of the KT Wiz in the KBO. The 29-year-old right-hander is having the best season of his career pitching to 3.87 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and has recorded 12 quality starts in the 14 games he has taken the ball.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Japan): Yamamoto has been one of the best starters in Nippon Professional Baseball this season. The 25-year-old right-hander owns the second-lowest ERA in the NPB at 1.82 to go along with a 0.95 WHIP over his 16 starts this season.
Key injuries
South Korea: No injuries to report.
Japan: No injuries to report.
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for baseball at Yokohama Baseball Stadium. The forecast is calling for clear skies with a temperature around 90 degrees at first pitch, and minimal wind.
South Korea vs Japan predictions
Moneyline pick
The gold medal in baseball is one of the most sought-after medals for Japan on home soil this Olympics, but the rival South Korean’s will do their best to spoil that. South Korea are the defending Olympic champions, but that gold medal was won 13 years ago in Beijing, so plenty has changed.
Japan, who are made up of NPB stars, have won all three of their games so far in this tournament. They opened with a 4-3 win over the Dominican Republic and then took out Mexico 7-4 before a thrilling walk-off 7-6 victory over the U.S. in 10 innings in the first round of the knockout stage.
South Korea, on the other hand, opened the tournament with a 6-5 win over Israel but fell 4-2 to the States in their next game. They bounced back in their first knockout stage game with a 4-3 win over the Dominican Republic and earned a spot in the semifinals by thumping Israel 11-1.
Japan have a slight edge in starters, but South Korea leads the tournament in batting average (.329) and slugging percentage (.514).
Additionally, South Korea’s dedicated relievers have pitched to a 1.92 ERA and are limiting opponents to a .146 batting average. Compare that to Japan’s bullpen, which has a 6.97 ERA and a .269 opponent batting average.
It should be noted this isn’t an elimination game, with the loser getting a second chance thanks to the craziest tournament bracket ever. But, +215 is way too much value to say no to. This is like the difference between the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox this season. This rivalry is much closer than that. Take the underdog.
PICK: South Korea (+215)
Over/Under pick
The total for this semifinal is on the board at 8.0, which at first glance looks a little low with Japan averaging 6.0 runs per game and South Korea plating 5.8 runs per game. But the old saying goes, “great pitching beats great hitting,” and that should be the same in this one.
South Korea’s Ko has allowed four runs on four hits in 4 2-3 innings of work during this Olympic tournament, but he is much better than those numbers. Plus, you know manager Kyung-moon Kim will likely have a short leash with Ko and hand the ball to a bullpen that has been outstanding this tourney.
For Japan, Yamamoto absolutely dominated the Dominican Republic in his lone start this Olympics, shutting them out on just two hits while striking out nine batters in six innings of work. South Korea have, arguably, the best lineup he’ll face this tourney, but some of their numbers are elevated thanks to their demolition of Israel.
On top of that, Yamamoto is known for working long into games, averaging more than seven innings per start in the NPB, which will allow Japan to get the ball to their best relievers quickly.
This should be hotly contested between two rivals. Bet on pitching to be the story and for the game to sneak below the total.
PICK: Under 8 (-110)
Where can I bet on Olympic Baseball?
You can bet on Olympic Baseball at most online sportsbooks and mobile apps. Find the best sportsbooks in your region to bet on Olympic Baseball odds.
