Japan has run the table at their own Olympics and need just one more victory versus the USA on Saturday to capture the gold in men's baseball on home soil.
This will be the second time both nations have met in the tournament, with Japan scoring a 7-6 extra-inning victory just four days ago. The American’s held a 6-3 lead but blew it in the ninth then got walked off in the extra frame after failing to score with the international tie-break rules.
Unbeaten Japan opened as -217 baseball betting favorites with the total set at a flat 8.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the USA vs. Japan for August 7.
USA vs Japan game info
• Location: Yokohama Baseball Stadium, Yokohama, Japan
• Date: Saturday, August 7, 2021
• Time: 8:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
USA vs Japan betting tips
- USA +1.5 (-125)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
USA vs Japan match odds
USA: +160
Japan: -217
Total: 8.5
Over 8.5: -120
Under 8.5: -120
USA vs Japan betting preview
Starting Pitchers
Nick Martinez (USA): Martinez has a ton of experience pitching against Japan, as he has spent the last three seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball league (which is considered the second-best pro-baseball league). He started the US’s second group stage game and tossed five innings, allowing just one run on four hits (no walks) and struck out nine South Korean batters.
Masato Morishita (Japan): Morishita is a 23-year-old starter who is in his second season in the NPB. In his rookie year, he finished with a 1.91 ERA over 18 starts and has followed that up with a 2.29 this year for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. He won the rookie of the year award in 2020. He started against Mexico in the group stage and needed just 47 pitches to get through five innings, allowing two runs on five hits, no walks and three strikeouts.
Key injuries
USA: No key injuries to report.
Japan: No key injuries to report.
Weather
It will be a rainy evening for the gold medal game, with a 90 percent chance of rain and 80 percent humidity, as temperatures float around 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
USA vs Japan predictions
Runline pick
Despite coming into the tournament as the betting favorite and the WBSC’s top-ranked team, Japan has never won an Olympic gold in men’s baseball. Things could change Saturday, though, with a win over the United States.
Japan have run the table, going 4-0 SU and outsourcing opponents 23-15. The normally light-hitting Japanese have been raking at the plate, as their top-three batters in the lineup are all hitting over .310, while their bottom-four hitters are also hitting over .300. But, Japan can still play small-ball better than anyone and because of it, they took a 7-6 victory over the US in the playoff round.
The USA decided to not bunt in extra innings, where the inning starts with runners at first and second. Todd Frazier struck out to begin the inning and the Americans failed to score in the 10th after blowing a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth. Japan sac bunted with a pinch hitter to begin the bottom of the 10th and followed that up with a game-winning single. Bunting isn’t big in the Western Hemisphere anymore, but it is still alive in Asian baseball and because of it, Japan has an advantage.
We like Japan as the favorites but think it's a little closer than -217. Sure, the NPB put its season on hold and made all of its players available for Japan, but we see this as a low-scoring one-run game with the Japanese having no problem giving up outs to put runners in scoring position.
Getting this American team at -125 for the +1.5 feels like a late Olympic gift.
PICK: USA +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under pick
Their last meeting had a ton of Over action. Both teams totaled 24 hits with two errors and eight walks and each team launching a home run. That game could be beneficial to prospective Under bettors as each team will be quite rested, which will allow them to get their rotations and bullpens in order. The USA have gone 2-3 O/U to date while Japan are 2-2 O/U.
Despite scoring 28 runs in five games, the USA bats haven’t been exactly hot. Their most recent game — a 7-2 win over South Korea — boasted a lineup that sported just one hitter with a batting average above .269. The entire lineup had four batters hitting .200 or less.
Both teams will be starting solid pitchers thanks to the extra rest. Japan’s Morishita is one of the best young pitchers in the country and has a 2.07 ERA through his first 31 starts in the NPB.
Martinez has transitioned well to the NPB after leaving the Majors. Through three seasons in Japan, he has a 3.44 ERA and has been pitching even better this year with a 2.03 ERA through 11 starts with seven victories.
The first meeting was a back-and-forth affair with plenty of offensive action. Saturday morning could be a different story with all arms likely available on both sides and runs coming at a premium.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-110)
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