Group play in Olympic Women’s Basketball is coming to a head, with a number of countries already qualified for the quarter-finals.
Nigeria is in a position to finish among the top in Group B with a win over Canada, while the Canadians will keep their rapidly fading hopes of advancing out of group play alive if they manage to prevail convincingly.
My Canada vs. Nigeria predictions examine how Achonwa’s role as a playmaker from the forward spot could be a key element of Canada’s game plan.
Canada vs Nigeria prediction
My best bet
Natalie Achonwa Over 4.5 assists (+110)
My analysis
Natalie Achonwa has to be given credit for constantly working on her game, even as her time in the WNBA came to a close in 2022. While she never averaged even two assists per game in the W, she’s a key playmaking hub for Team Canada.
The 31-year-old racked up seven assists against Australia, doing really great work in the dribble handoff game. She creates a ton of space with her screens after handing off the ball, springing shooters free with space behind the arc or a clean angle to attack the basket.
Achonwa’s ability to facilitate offense from the post should prove crucial against Nigeria on Sunday. Nigeria’s half-court offense has been relatively poor throughout the tournament, but their ability to force turnovers and grab-and-go has been elite.
Nigerian ball pressure was devastating in the game against Australia, and no doubt pressuring Canada’s relatively weaker guard rotation will be the top of their game plan on Sunday. Ezinne Kalu is a steals machine and Canada’s lead ball handler, Shay Colley, has proven to be vulnerable to that kind of pressure. She had a whopping eight turnovers against France, which cost them any chance of a competitive game.
Canada has perimeter players that have dealt with All-WNBA caliber defensive pressure in Kia Nurse and Bridget Carleton, but neither are point guards.
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Bridget Carleton prop: Over 12.5 points (-115)
Carleton has been one of the bright spots for Canada, and her offense is going to be crucial against Nigeria again. Achonwa’s growth as a playmaker has had a synergistic effect on Carleton, freeing her up to play closer to her WNBA role for Team Canada.
Not only do the pair enjoy a solid two-person chemistry by using subtle head and shoulder movements to choreograph a DHO or a catch-and-go, but it means Carleton can slide more readily into her more natural role as an off-ball player.
In previous international play, Carleton has been on the ball far more than is ideal for her and the team. All but a handful of players are better shooting off the catch than off the dribble, and having her on the ball too much drives down her otherwise strong efficiency as a perimeter player. When the ball is in her hands to initiate the possession, that’s generally going to mean harder shots.
With her and Achonwa flashing an improved two-person game, Carleton is going to get a good volume of open looks in this one.
Canada vs Nigeria same-game parlay (SGP)
Natalie Achonwa Over 4.5 assists
Bridget Carleton Over 12.5 points
Nigeria team total Under 67.5
Nigeria’s offense has been touch-and-go through two games. They can get into a great flow when they’re pushing the ball consistently and forcing turnovers, but the unit can get cramped and stilted when working in the half-court.
Their shooting woes are even more pronounced than Canada’s. They have a few sharpshooters on the squad like Kalu and Amy Okonkwo, but as a team, they’re shooting below 28% from downtown in the tournament.
France’s interior defense was stifling against Nigeria. Canada can’t quite replicate what France has on a talent level, but they have strong interior defenders and their wings are good at picking up in transition defense. Without a strong transition attack, this game could be largely stuck in first gear for Nigeria.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Canada vs Nigeria odds
| Canada | Nigeria | |
| -6 (-110) | Spread | +6 (-110) |
| -265 | Moneyline | +215 |
| Over 132 (-112) | Total | Under 132 (-108) |
Odds as of 8-3.
Canada vs Nigeria game info
| Location: | Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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