John Deere Classic Picks, Outrights, & Best Bets: Rai Keeps It Rolling

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic this week, and while it’s not the most star-studded event, we could be in store for some thrilling action as it’s the last chance for golfers to qualify for The Open Championship, which is just over two weeks away.

Two-time winner Jordan Spieth headlines the favorites, along with reigning champ Sepp Straka and Sungjae Im. But with no Scottie Scheffler in the field, could we have another longshot winner on Tour? I break down the John Deere Classic odds and bring you my free golf picks.

Best John Deere Classic picks

• Rai outright (+2,220 at DraftKings)
• Gotterup outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
• Maverick McNealy Top 10 finish (+310 at bet365)
• Mark Hubbard Top 20 finish (+260 at bet365)

John Deere Classic outright picks

Pick to win: Aaron Rai (+2,200 at DraftKings)

It’s been a breakout season for the 29-year-old Brit. A two-time winner on the European Tour, Rai has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but it feels like that first victory isn’t that far off. He’s made the cut in 14 of his 18 events played this season with three Top 10s, including two in his last six starts.

Rai has done that with some superb ball striking. He ranks sixth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Total Stokes Gained. Rai’s putter is what has held him back, but the wide fairways and big, soft greens at TPC Deere Run mean Rai will be able to stick of lot of shots close this week.

He’s also trending in the right direction, with three consecutive Top 20 finishes, including a T-19 at the U.S. Open and a runner-up by one stroke in last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, which could have easily been a win had a few more putts dropped on Sunday.

On top of that, a Top 5 finish here this weekend will mean Rai qualifies for The Open Championship in two weeks.

Sleeper: Chris Gotterup (+11,000 at FanDuel)

You need to sink a bunch of birdies to win at TPC Deere Run. Twelve of the last 15 winners have shot -20 or better for the tournament. And one way to rack up the birdies here is by overpowering the golf course.

As I said, there are wide fairways here and that can play into the hands of the long bombers. We saw that in 2020 when Bryson DeChambeau won this event. That has me looking at the young Chris Gotterup. The 24-year-old out of the University of Oklahoma is already one of the longest drivers of the golf ball on Tour. 

Gotterup ranks sixth in average driving distance and 63rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Now the youngster needs to work on his approach game, but he may not need that on this track. He’s also an above average putter, ranking 74th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Gotterup also already has a PGA Tour victory, winning the Myrtle Beach Classic by six strokes back in May. He’s made the cut in each of his last two starts and was playing well last week before shooting a 77 on Sunday. He also leads the field in true strokes gained at TPC Deere Run which resulted in a T4 here back in 2022. I’ll take a shot on Gotterup at this price.

John Deere Classic prop picks

Maverick McNealy Top 10 Finish (+310 at bet365)

Maverick McNealy had a little bit of a letdown at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic — finishing the week with a T41 — but this is another course set up well for the 28-year-old still searching for his first PGA Tour victory.

McNealy is having an outstanding year. He’s made the cut in 14 of the 16 events he’s played and has six Top 25 finishes in his last 12 events. That includes a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open, a T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and a T23 at the PGA Championship.

The other thing to like about McNealy here is he doesn’t have many holes in his game. He’s great off the tee, an excellent ball striker, and a very good putter — ranking 10th on Tour in total strokes gained this season. Expect him to run some out here at TPC Deere Run and give himself a bunch of eagle opportunities.

Plus, he’s another guy with good results here in the past. While McNealy didn’t tee off at this tournament last year, he finished T18 in 2021 and followed it up with a T8 in 2022. He also ranks seventh in the field in true strokes gained at TPC Deere Run.

I like McNealy to post his fourth Top 10 finish of the season this week.

Mark Hubbard Top 20 Finish (+260 at bet365)

Talk about a grinder. Mark Hubbard’s results may not jump off the page, but the 32-year-old pro puts in work. Hubbard has started 18 events this season and has made the cut in all of them, including making the cut at both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open — the latter of which he finished T26.

While he only has four Top 25 finishes this season, Hubbard has the ability to elevate his game against weaker fields, as we saw with his solo third at the Zurich Classic and a T4 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Hubbard also has the game to be successful at TPC Deere Run. He has a great iron game and an even better putter, and you need both to sink a lot of birdies here. Hubbard ranks 58th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach while ranking 45th in Strokes Gained: Putting. That has him at 42nd in total strokes gained this season.

Oh, and Hubbard has been successful here. In fact, he’s improved in each of his last three starts at the John Deere Classic, going T41, T13, and T6 over the last three tournaments. I love the price we are getting with Hubbard for a Top 20 finish.

John Deere Classic first-round pick

Jordan Spieth Over 67.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Ah, the place where it all started. Spieth's first PGA Tour victory came in the 2013 John Deere Classic with a thrilling three-way playoff, highlighted by his now-iconic bunker shot. 
 
Spieth won a second title at TPC Deere run in 2015, but a lot has changed since. The reality is it's been a tough season for the 30-year-old, featuring just three Top 25 finishes. Slow starts have been a problem, as Spieth's first-round scoring average is 70.53, ranking 93rd on Tour, while his iron game is 110th in SG: Approach.

John Deere Classic odds

• Jordan Spieth (+1,600)
• Sungjae Im (+1,800)
• Sepp Straka (+1,800)
• Aaron Rai (+2,200)
• Maverick McNealy (+2,500)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

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