The PGA Tour moves on to TPC Scottsdale for the always-wild Waste Management Phoenix Open this week. Over the last two events, we’ve seen Tom Hoge and Luke List get their long-awaited first PGA Tour wins.
This week could be more primed for a super-elite like Jon Rahm or Justin Thomas to take the trophy, so we’ll find our betting value in the matchups, Top 20s, and prop markets.
Waste Management Phoenix Open picks
- Power (+100) over Simpson
- Horschel (-105) over Ancer
- Mitchell (-133) over McCarthy
- Talor Gooch Top 20 (+210)
- Wyndham Clark Top 20 (+550)
- There will be a playoff — Yes (+330)
Picks made on 2/8/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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TPC Scottsdale stats that matter
The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that plays 7,261 yards with Bermuda grass tee-to-green. Long hitters do have an advantage with firm fairways, short rough, and all three par 5s being 560-575 yards. Good ball-strikers who can bomb it and score on the par 5s are the prototype players who can win here while putting has been historically less important to top finishes and victories at the Phoenix Open.
- Strokes gained off the tee.
- Driving distance.
- Strokes gained approach.
- Par 5 scoring.
- Scoring opportunities gained.
- Recent form.
Waste Management Phoenix Open matchup predictions
Seamus Power (+100) over Webb Simpson
Webb has the course history advantage but this new and improved version of Seamus Power hasn’t played here yet. The old Seamus missed the cut in 2019. New Seamus is one of the hottest players in the world who continues to rake in cash finishing Top 10 in three and Top 20 in five more of his last 10 events. He’d played four times in 2022 and hasn’t finished worse than 15th at Sentry. Webb Simpson was really bad tee-to-green at the Sony and he’s not even putting well these days. We’ll take Seamus to keep it going.
Billy Horschel (-105) over Abraham Ancer
Billy Ho gets no respect from the oddsmakers. Horschel has finished inside the Top 53 at WMPO the last five years in a row, and he’s also rested after finishes of 23rd, 36th and 11th in January. He skipped the Pebble Beach Pro-Am shuffle and the Saudi money grab, probably to set himself up for a run at Phoenix. The ball striking and driving stats aren’t great for Billy and you could argue his finishes are all about hot putting, but you just know Ho is looking to spoil this WMPO party. Ancer played pretty well at Saudi but Horschel is the one more likely to be in the mix in Phoenix.
Keith Mitchell (-133) over Denny McCarthy
There was a frenzy of betting action on Mitchell when the Waste Management lines opened that crashed his numbers on all the books. We’re talking jumps from 130/1 to 70/1 at some spots. This matchup opened at -118 and will probably continue to move in Killa’s favor. Mitchell has all the tools to succeed at a big golf course like TPC Scottsdale and McCarthy is more a short game specialist. Over the last 24 rounds, Mitchell ranks 14th in driving distance and 18th in greens in regulation vs. 81st and 56th for Denny.
Waste Management Phoenix Open top finisher predictions
Talor Gooch Top 20 (+210)
The Gooch chatter has calmed down some recently but don’t forget the run this guy was on through the Fall until a few weeks ago. Gooch has an electric approach game, he hits it far, he finds a lot of fairways, and he creates a ton of scoring opportunities. In fact, he ranks fifth in this field in eagles gained. The course history isn’t great for Gooch but this could really be his breakout season if he hasn’t broken out already.
Wyndham Clark Top 20 (+550)
Clark can bomb it and he’s been putting up some very good approach numbers recently. Plus, he’s already cracked the Top 40 in Scottsdale twice. With putting not as important this week and the emphasis on driving and approach, Clark will be on a lot of outright winner tickets this week.
Waste Management Phoenix Open prop predictions
There will be a playoff — Yes (+330)
In 2016, Matsuyama won the Phoenix Open in a playoff over Rickie Fowler. In 2017, it was Hideki in a playoff again, this time over Webb Simpson. In 2018, it was a one-hole sudden-death playoff for Gary Woodland and Chez Reavie and the same happened in 2020 with Webb defeating Tony Finau on the first playoff hole at TPC Scottsdale. This tournament has actually finished in a playoff seven times over the last 15 years and it would have happened again in 2021 had Brooks not pitched in for eagle on 17. There’s just something about TPC Scottsdale that has led to a lot of playoffs. Maybe it’s the wild atmosphere? Maybe it’s the risk-reward potential of the 17th? Or maybe it’s just a fluke? Whatever it is, we’ll add this prop to a first touchdown scorer or coin-toss parlay.
