Scottish Open Picks, Outrights, & Best Bets: Rai Continues Heater

Even with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opting out of the Genesis Scottish Open, it’s a loaded field hitting The Renaissance Club this week.

Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele headline the favorites in the Scottish Open odds, and they’re followed by a strong second tier consisting of Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, and Viktor Hovland.

Here are our free golf picks for this week’s Genesis Scottish Open.

Best Scottish Open picks

• Morikawa outright (+1,600 at bet365)
• Rai outright (+4,500 at DraftKings)
• Conners Top 40 (-105 at bet365)
• Thompson Top 40 (+105 at BetRivers)
• Schauffele Top 20 after Round 1 (+162 at bet365)

Scottish Open outright picks

Pick to win: Collin Morikawa (+1,600 at bet365)

Morikawa checks all the boxes. He’s gained true strokes across the board in four consecutive events and has finished T16 or better in each of his past nine individual tournaments, including his T3 at The Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, and T14 at the U.S. Open.

The six-time PGA Tour winner took down The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021, which is a comparable track to The Renaissance Club, and Morikawa’s seventh victory is coming. His game is incredibly tight, and he’s consistently put himself in a position to win during the noted sterling stretch of strong finishes in stacked-field events.

Morikawa is also trading at a friendly -110 to finish Top 20 through bet365, compared to -120 odds at most shops. It’s a complimentary bet I like given Morikawa’s form

Sleeper: Aaron Rai (+4,500 at DraftKings)

Rai's strong run continued at the John Deere Classic with a second consecutive Top 10 and his fourth straight Top 20. His ball striking paves the way, and he’s also gained true strokes on the greens in each of his past three events.

Rai is accurate off the tee and ranks 15th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 16th in true strokes gained on approaches during the noted four-tournament stretch. Additionally, while the Englishman is still looking for his first PGA Tour win, Rai has multiple victories on the DP World Tour. Of course, his most recent DP win was right here at The Renaissance Club in the 2020 Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open.

A secondary wager on Rai to finish Top 30 is priced at +125 through bet365 and is a far more favorable number than the -105 odds through DraftKings. The difference checks out as a positive expected value of 15%.

Scottish Open prop picks

Corey Conners Top 40 finish (-105 at bet365)

The Canuck continues to show off elite ball striking and has six consecutive Top 40 finishes. Conners has gained true strokes on approaches in all six events and ranks fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the surge. He also finished T19 in this event last season, and I particularly value that he gained true strokes on the greens in three of four rounds because his putting often isn’t a strength.

Finally, there’s also a nice edge in the -105 bet365 odds compared to the -150 DraftKings price. We’re landing a positive expected value of 17% with the -105 number.

Davis Thompson Top 40 finish (+105 at BetRivers)

I don't anticipate Thompson’s heater will cool across the pond. His game is dialed in, and he’s gained true strokes across the board in each of his past three events to rank first in this field in both tee-to-green and around-the-green metrics. Additionally, his accelerating career trajectory is right in line with his success on the Korn Ferry Tour and as the former No. 1 player in the Amateur World Golf Ranking in 2020 and 2021. 

Simply put, Thompson is a legitimate talent, and this is a mispriced number for a peaking player. After all, he’s priced as short as -140 through DraftKings to finish Top 40, with the difference checking out at a positive expected value of 20% compared 

Scottish Open first-round pick

Xander Schauffele Top 20 after Round 1 (+162 at bet365)

The reigning PGA Championship winner has been in a class of his own behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler this year, and Schauffele won this event in 2022. Schauffele ranks second in scoring average, Round 1 scoring average, and bogey avoidance on tour this season, and he’s rattled off 11 consecutive Top 25 finishes. I don’t consider his consistency fully priced into these odds.

Additionally, Schauffele ranks first in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 50 rounds. Finally, I also value him pacing the PGA Tour in scoring average when he tees off in the early wave, which he will for Thursday’s Round 1.

Scottish Open odds

• Rory McIlroy (+750)
• Xander Schauffele (+850)
• Ludvig Aberg (+1,400)
• Collin Morikawa (+1,600)
• Viktor Hovland (+2,200)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2,200)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

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