The 2024 US Presidential election will be taking place this November, and not only are many books offering US presidential election odds, but some are taking bets on whether Donald Trump will be found guilty in any of the four criminal trials — two federal and two state — he faces.
Trump has pled not guilty to all 91 criminal offenses he has been charged with and remains adamant he's the victim of a political witch hunt.
Although the former president remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination, Donald Trump odds are at minus money for him to be found guilty in each of these cases. Here are the odds for whether Teflon Don can beat the charges yet again.
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more felonies in New York?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -200 |
| No | +150 |
Odds as of January 12, 2024.
This case refers to the New York civil fraud trial that wrapped up on Thursday, January 11. The attorney general’s office is seeking $370 million in its claim against Trump, alleging that fraudulent financial statements and the inflation of assets allowed him to obtain loans and insurance at more favorable rates.
Judge Arthur Engoron has already found Trump is liable for fraud in the civil case and he plans to issue a full decision by the end of the month. That said, Trump's attorneys have already said they plan on appealing the ruling so things could drag out.
With the mountain of evidence against him, it seems extremely likely that Trump will be found guilty, meaning the former President would be forced to fork over millions of dollars while likely also facing a lifetime ban from the New York real estate industry.
While Trump has argued that the lack of victims and the statute of limitations should shield him from charges, his meltdown on the stand at the closing remarks on Thursday showed that even he thinks he's losing this one.
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the 2020 Election result Federal charges?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -325 |
| No | +240 |
Odds as of January 12, 2024.
March 5 is Super Tuesday, the largest single day of primaries and the day that often indicates who the party nominees will be. That's just one day after the opening date of this trial where Trump faces federal charges related to his attempts to overturn the results of the election, which led to the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
This is the most serious of the cases being brought against Trump and a conviction could result in prison time. However, it might also be the toughest to prove which makes the odds for "Yes" on this seem way too chalky. One of the most significant parts of the indictment is that Trump pushed election fraud claims he knew to be untrue, but given that he's still pushing those claims, it's hard to argue that he doesn't believe them.
Although Special Counsel Jack Smith has built an extensive case, much of the evidence is based on the words of Trump's advisers who repeatedly told him there was no fraud in the 2020 election. However, prosecutors will have a tough time proving intent and that Trump deliberately committed a crime or coerced others to commit a crime.
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Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the 2020 Election Georgia result charges?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -375 |
| No | +260 |
Odds as of January 12, 2024.
Trump is among 19 people charged with a conspiracy to overturn Georgia's 2020 election results — with four of his co-defendants already taking plea deals. Trump recently asked an appeal court to toss out the election fraud case against him, claiming that he's protected by presidential immunity.
His lawyers have also argued that the case violates his First Amendment rights and should also count as double jeopardy since he was acquitted on similar charges in the US Senate in 2021. However, the presidential immunity argument was rejected by US District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan in December.
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the classified documents Federal charges?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -350 |
| No | +245 |
Odds as of January 12, 2024.
These charges are based on Trump illegally mishandling several classified records after leaving the presidency by taking and storing them at his personal estate at Mar-a-Lago. The primary charges in this case — 32 counts of willful retention of national defense information in violation of the Espionage Act — routinely result in significant sentences, but that seems unlikely for a former president.
Fortunately for Trump, this trial will take place in Florida, which is a state that features a hotbed of Republican support. The jury pool could be sympathetic to his defense, and the federal judge overseeing the case has also indicated that she might postpone the trial until the end of the year so that his defense can adequately prepare.
Those close to the president have also said that his legal team is focused on the two federal cases and a large part of the strategy involves delaying them until after the election. In theory, if Trump wins the presidency before the trials have been resolved, he could then push the DOJ to drop the charges or even pardon himself.
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