With polls beginning to close and the presidential election odds set to shift dramatically based on results throughout the night, the final polling results reveal a race that is too close for even the most senior pollsters to call.
Current Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -1600 | 94.1% |
| Kamala Harris | +900 | 10% |
(Odds updated Nov. 5 at 11:20 p.m. ET)
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Odds Movement
Donald Trump Odds
The Donald Trump odds shortened throughout the day, from the -130 range all the way to -1600. Trump carries a similar implied probability on renowned exchange sites Kalshi and Polymarket on the strength of advantageous odds position in five of the seven battleground states.
Kamala Harris Odds
Consequently, the picture isn't nearly as rosy for the Kamala Harris odds. She finds herself at +900 and is trading in the single-digit cent range at Kalshi and Polymarket, and will need to make significant inroads in at least one battleground state – that likely being Pennsylvania – to have a chance at turning things around.
Election Day Polls: Who is Ahead?
Nate Silver
Harris: 48.6%
Trump: 47.6%
Silver, one of the most well-respected statisticians in politics, has the race as too close to call. And the final polling numbers aren't even the most narrow of his projections. He ran a final simulation at midnight on Election Day, and of the 80,000 sims, Harris was the winner in 40,012 of them compared to Trump at 39,718 (there were 270 ties).
Harris has led in Silver's polling data since the beginning of August, but her lead has shrunk steadily over the past two weeks and has been at one point or fewer for the previous several days. Truly, Silver has this one as a toss-up based on the polling data.
FiveThirtyEight
Harris: 48.0%
Trump: 46.8%
Silver's old stomping ground (he founded FiveThirtyEight) has the final polling data in a similar place. Silver's margin is thinner, and has been for slightly longer, but the patterns are similar: Harris pulled ahead at the beginning of August, maintained a solid lead until mid-October, then watched Trump cut into her advantage gradually over the last 10 days.
The overwhelming majority of polls FiveThirtyEight references has the candidates within two percentage points of each other, illustrating just how close this is.
RealClearPolling
Harris: 48.7%
Trump: 48.6%
How's this for a toss-up? As noted in our Trump vs Harris odds breakdown, RCP has this one as close as can be as of its final run of polling data, with just a tenth of a percentage point separating the candidates.
Unlike Silver or FiveThirtyEight, RCP actually had Trump in front of Harris in polling a few days ago, but some strong results for the Democrats narrowed the gap and eventually moved her back in front. But a .1 lead is hardly a lead at all.
Check out all of the odds updates throughout Election Night on our presidential election live blog.
