Kamala-mania may have peaked among election bettors.
Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the favorite to win this year's U.S. presidential election after a historically crazy summer that included an attempt on the life of Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race.
However, ahead of Tuesday's debate on ABC, U.S. election betting odds have shifted away from Harris and the Democrats and toward Trump and the Republicans. At regulated sportsbooks in Ontario, where election wagering is legal, Trump is now the favorite and Harris the underdog.
“BOOKIES LOVE TRUMP...(even when the rest of the world says he will get destroyed),” tweeted William Woodhams, chief executive officer of Fitzdares.
The U.K.-based but Ontario-regulated bookmaker had Trump priced at -140 to win the election as of Monday morning.
Back and forth
Trump’s odds were even shorter at Bet99. The operator was offering -141 on Monday for the former president to reclaim the White House. Other shops had Trump priced similarly, such as bet365 offering -138 on the Republican to win this November.
The roles were reversed a month ago, when Harris and the Democrats got a gust of wind in their sails following Biden’s decision not to seek reelection. At bet365, for example, Harris was the -125 favorite and Trump an even-money underdog as of Aug. 14.
But buyback on Trump and perhaps some cooling on Harris have helped flip the script once more.
"It's all change once again at the head of the US election betting, with Trump now back in front for an imminent return to the White House,” Alex Apati of Ladbrokes noted in a statement on Monday.
Here's a new one: at bwin in Ontario, not only can you bet on who is gonna win the U.S. presidential election, you can bet on who is going to win Tuesday's presidential election DEBATE.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 9, 2024
The outcome will be determined by polling post-debate. Harris a -250 favorite at the moment. pic.twitter.com/zMCDYV0M7K
The odds are not done moving though, especially with Tuesday’s debate on deck. The primetime news event is a huge moment for both candidates, as it will be perhaps their best and final opportunity to win over voters before the polls open.
Neither candidate is jumping out to a huge lead in public opinion polling, either. That may help explain why neither is running away on the oddsboard.
RealClearPolitics had Harris at 48.3% popular support and Trump at 47% in its average of polls as of Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, a recent New York Times/Siena College survey found Trump leading Harris among likely voters by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%.
"It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month," wrote Nate Cohn, the Times' chief political analyst. "As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls."
