Anyone who has been closely monitoring the presidential election odds must feel as if he or she has been on a roller-coaster.
We've seen the Donald Trump odds go from south of -200 all the way into positive territory during a chaotic four-month period, in which original Democratic candidate Joe Biden ruled out a second term and ceded the 2024 run to Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Kamala Harris odds have vacillated significantly, as well, with the VP going from a considerable position of deficit to a slight favorite before finding herself once again in the underdog position with just four days remaining until election day.
Here's a detailed look at the Trump vs Harris odds over time:
Trump vs Harris odds: Former president opens large lead
(Betting odds for who will win the US presidential election courtesy bet365.)
As tens of millions of early votes roll in, Trump is enjoying a comfortable lead in the betting odds (and implied probability, shown above).
Harris saw an incredible surge in support before, during, and shortly after a spirited Democratic National Convention in Chicago in late August, but saw her momentum wane shortly after (at least in the eyes of sports betting sites). She saw another spike in late October — becoming the betting favorite for the second time — but that edge quickly dissipated as Trump returned to the top of the odds table. He has remained there ever since.
Recent polling data: This one's too close to call
The odds might suggest a triumphant return to the Oval Office for Trump, but key polling metrics suggest that the outcome is far from decided.
Nate Silver polling data
As of Nov. 1, Nate Silver's national polling average has Harris just over one percentage point clear of Trump — and as you can see in the above graph, the margin between the candidates has been this razor thin for the past 10 days.
That said, the vice president has been ahead since Silver first launched a revamped model with Harris in place of Biden.
FiveThirtyEight polling data
It's not surprising to see Harris holding a similarly small edge in the Nov. 1 polling data from FiveThirtyEight — and not just because Silver created the site.
The trends across both polling data powerhouses have been virtually identical the entire way, though it appears that Silver's polling interpretations had the candidates within less than two points of each other slightly earlier than FiveThirtyEight. Whatever the case, both sites are telling a similar story.
RealClearPolitics polling data
The RealClearPolitics picture as of Nov. 1 is much more favorable to Trump, who overtook Harris in the RCP data on Oct. 26.
RCP also notes interesting — and conflicting — trends when comparing Harris vs. Trump to the previous two election cycles just four days away from Decision Day. Hilary Clinton had a 1.5-point lead in RCP polling at this point in 2016, while Joe Biden held a 7.8-point edge in national polling four years ago.
Trump vs. Harris odds markets
While sports betting sites aren't permitted to offer U.S. presidential election betting, exchanges are not subject to the same regulations and can offer transactions in which bettors can buy "contracts" based on an election outcome. Here are three of the most popular versions of these exchanges (info updated Nov. 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET):
| Category | Kalshi | Polymarket | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump "Yes" contract price | $0.56 | $0.59 | 4/6 ($6.67 on $10 bet) |
| Trump "No" contract price | $0.45 | $0.41 | NA |
| Harris "Yes" contract price | $0.45 | $0.41 | 6/4 ($15 on $10 bet) |
| Harris "No" contract price | $0.56 | $0.59 | NA |
| Total volume | $157.96 million (since Oct. 4) | $2.96 billion (all-time) | $146 million (all-time) |
| Odds of victory | Trump 55% / Harris 45% | Trump 59.5% / Harris 40.5% | Trump 60% / Harris 40% |
Kalshi
The new kid in town has made quite a splash in the betting markets arena, taking in nearly $160 million in less than a month — and as you might expect, those numbers will almost certainly be dwarfed by what Kalshi attracts in the final few days of election chaos.
It's notable that Kalshi is more optimistic about a Harris win than the other two major players in the space, installing the Democrats at 45% to prevail and offering the best contract price on Harris. And with more than $60 million coming in over the past four days alone, you can expect these numbers to fluctuate plenty between now and Tuesday.
Kalshi's emergence as a major player in the election betting contract space will make for an interesting test case should the U.S. ever consider legal widespread election wagering — a decision Covers industry analyst Geoff Zochodne thinks should be academic at this point.
Polymarket
The global standard when it comes to political exchange betting, Polymarket has seen incredible interest in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, approaching a whopping $3 billion in total contracts over the course of the cycle.
Interestingly, while Polymarket has Trump comfortably in front (and is offering three cents less for a Trump victory than Kalshi), this is actually one of the most bettor-friendly prices bettors have seen this month. Trump had been above 60 cents for a two-week stretch beginning in mid-October, peaking at $0.67 just three days ago.
Polymarket had Biden priced at $0.65 and Trump at $0.35 on Election Day 2020.
Betfair
Betfair might differ slightly in its exchange offerings when compared with Kalshi or Polymarket, but its projection of a Trump victory is very much in lockstep.
According to Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, nine of the 10 biggest bets for Trump vs. Harris have come in on the former president, and he has generated approximately $63 million in action since Harris joined the race.
Betfair saw more than $620 million come in for the 2020 election, and might very well smash that number by the end of Tuesday.
