Voters in five states will see significant gambling-related issues on their respective ballots. Here's where each race stands heading into Election Day:
Missouri – Sports Betting
State of the ballot measure
Supporters of the measure that would bring legal online and retail sportsbooks to Missouri look to have the edge in both polling and finances.
DraftKings and FanDuel each contributed more than $20 million to the “yes” campaign. Caesars, which would have atypical restrictions on its mobile gaming options if the measure passes, has contributed about $14 million to stop it. Money never directly shows where a vote stands, but the roughly three-to-one advantage to support the initiative is a positive sign for supporters.
In the past year, DraftKings and FanDuel have each donated a little over $20 million to the Missouri sports betting legalization support campaign; Caesars has donated about $14 million opposing it
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) November 1, 2024
So is recent polling. The most up-to-date polls show roughly 50% of voters in support, 25% in opposition, and 25% undecided. Assuming a small portion of the undecides flip “yes,” the measure would pass easily. Backers also have the financial advantage to increase advertising while the opposition campaign has had to pull back its efforts.
What’s at stake
If approved, Missouri would be the 31st state with statewide mobile sports betting and the 39th with some form of legal wagering. FanDuel and DraftKings would undoubtedly pursue licensure, and so too would other leading national brands including BetMGM, BetRivers, Fanatics, and bet365. Even Caesars would likely seek to offer mobile sports betting.
Missouri would also become one of the first states to allow retail sportsbooks within or adjacent to its major professional sports venues.
If voters reject the measure, Missouri may not see legal sports betting until at least 2027 – if not longer. It would also mean no state would pass sports betting legislation in 2024, the first full year without a new legal jurisdiction since 2018.
Minnesota – State Legislature
State of the races
The Minnesota House of Representatives is one of the most closely divided chambers in the nation. No matter which party takes control after this year’s election, it’s likely to stay that way.
The Democrat-affiliated Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party has a 70-64 advantage in Minnesota’s lower House, a lead that could easily flip back to Republican control this election cycle. Republicans have maintained public optimism about the race, but limited polling shows either outcome is too early to call.
Minnesota’s Senate is tied between the two parties 36-36, but the DFL is confident it will win the lone race on the ballot. The district in the western Minneapolis suburbs has trended increasingly toward Democrats in recent election cycles and seems inclined to do so in 2024.
Gov. Tim Walz’s spot on the national ticket could also boost the DFL. Should Walz leave office to serve as Kamala Harris’ vice president, the DFL would still have control of the governor’s office, now with current Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
What’s at stake
The new legislature will shape many issues in Minnesota’s 2025 legislative session, including its much-discussed – and long-stalled – sports betting legalization efforts.
Republican control of either chamber would give the GOP more legislative authority to back its preferred sports betting model, one that grants the state’s horse tracks, charitable gaming organizations and gaming tribes a piece of the sports betting pie. DFL members have tended to back a tribal-only model.
"I'm hopeful" Minnesota sports betting is approved next year with a tribal-approved framework, Andy Platto, Executive Director of the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association, said during today's G2E conference
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 8, 2024
The two sides have not agreed about either approach, but members from both parties acknowledge a bipartisan solution is the only way to get sports betting across the finish line.
Presidential politics could add another wrinkle. Though Walz has been lauded by tribal stakeholders for his approach to Native American affairs in the state, having Flanagan – a tribal national member – in the governor’s office could further bolster the DFL’s sports betting approach.
Texas – State Senate
State of the race
Incumbent Democratic state Sen. Morgan LaMantia is up against Republican candidate Adam Hinojosa in Texas’ lone competitive Senate race. The race was decided by a few hundred votes in the previous election cycle and could be nearly as close in 2024.
Polling for the South Texas state Senate district has been limited, but nationwide indicators show Texas is again likely to vote for Republicans at the top of the ballot. Combined with Hinojosa’s recent endorsement from former state Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr., a Democrat who previously represented the district, Republicans are hopeful the seat will flip.
What’s at stake
Though the result won’t make or break gambling efforts in the Lone Star State, it could further deter legalization efforts.
Senate Republicans, led by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, have blocked sports betting and casino gambling legalization measures. Adding another Republican to the chamber, which is already under GOP control, could make things even more difficult.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has been the state's biggest political block for casino gambling and sports betting. Rumors have circulated he could join a second Trump Administration, which would set Sen. Charles Schwertner to take his spot; Schwertner too has opposed gambling bills
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 24, 2024
Hinojosa has not given many public policy positions on gambling, but has centered his campaign on Christian and family values. Like his would-be GOP colleagues, Hinojosa seems unlikely to back commercial gambling expansion.
Presidential politics could also shape the gambling prospects in Texas.
Patrick, a prominent and outspoken supporter of Donald Trump, would appear to be a leading candidate to take a position in the would-be Trump Administration. Conservative, anti-gambling Republicans would still control the state Senate, but removing Patrick clears the single biggest political obstacle to legal Texas gambling expansions.
Virginia – Casino Referendum
State of the referendum
Voters in Petersburg, Virginia will determine if the city approves what would be the Commonwealth’s fifth commercial casino. It’s hard to gauge public attitudes of city residents without high-level polling, but anecdotal media reports tend to indicate voters are excited about the opportunity.
Unlike Richmond, the capital city about 20 miles away that rejected a casino referendum, Petersburg’s civic and community leaders are more receptive to the project. Voters in Bristol, Danville, Hampton, and Norfolk approved casinos in their respective jurisdictions.
What’s at stake
The brick-and-mortar casino project could indirectly hurt Virginia’s future online gaming prospects.
By Nov. 5 we'll know if voters in Petersburg, Virginia have approved Cordish Companies to build the $1.4 billion Live! Casino & Hotel Virginia mixed-use entertainment district; if approved it would house VA's fifth casino
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 23, 2024
[April 2024 renderings of the project via Cordish] pic.twitter.com/J85m3smTRT
If Petersburg voters approve the casino, the Cordish Group would have the right to manage the property. The proprietors of the Live! Casino properties in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana, Cordish has been among the industry’s most outspoken iGaming opponents. Its opposition in Maryland helped tank online casino legalization bills earlier this year.
Cordish operating a casino in the Old Dominion could further damper what would be a difficult potential future iGaming legalization push.
Arkansas – Casino Referendum
State of the referendum
It’s difficult to monitor where the statewide ballot measure to maintain or reject a Pope County casino stands when many voters could struggle to understand what they’re voting for.
The unusual background of the referendum means a “Yes” vote will repeal authorization for a previously permitted casino while a “No” vote will preserve the facility. Complicating efforts further is the nearly 500-word ballot measure itself.
Arkansas voters have an unusual vote on the state's (not yet built) fourth casino; a "Yes" vote prevents the casino and a "No" vote will permit it. Complicating things further is the lengthy, confusing wording around the issue voters will see on their ballots: pic.twitter.com/eWeMsL9X1Z
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) November 1, 2024
Additionally, a “Yes” vote would require subsequent county-level approval in Pope County or anywhere else in the state, making any new casino gambling project that much more difficult.
What’s at stake
Along with the potential for a fourth brick-and-mortar casino would be a new mobile sportsbook. The state’s three existing casinos all have self-managed mobile sportsbooks running on third-party tech platforms; the fourth property would be set up to follow suit, or become the state’s first gaming operator to affiliate with a national sportsbook brand.
This could also set up another potential future iGaming platform. Though legal online slots and table games are not imminent in Arkansas, the state’s gaming stakeholders are already pushing for iGaming authorization. A new retail casino operator could also mean a new digital casino operator as well.
