AC Milan vs Napoli Picks and Predictions: Serie A Squads Slug It Out in Champions League

An Italian side is guaranteed to reach the semifinals of the Champions League, but today’s matchup between AC Milan and Napoli will play a key role in determining which one.

Along with Inter Milan, the Serie A sides hold three of the eight remaining spots in the competition. AC Milan are hoping to reach the final four for the first time since winning their last Champions League trophy back in 2007. For Napoli, this is uncharted territory, and they will have to navigate it without one of their biggest weapons.

Can the hosts replicate their dominance over the visitors less than a fortnight ago, or will the visitors get a result to take back home for the second leg? Find out in our AC Milan vs Napoli picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 12.

AC Milan vs Napoli best odds

AC Milan vs Napoli picks and predictions

Last weekend’s 4-0 thrashing of Napoli came as a shock to many AC Milan supporters. The runaway league winners were taken to the woodshed, at home no less, as the Rossoneri scored two first half goals in a span of eight minutes and never looked back.

But it’s hard to say whether the match was an indication of a rise in form for Milan or a backslide for Napoli – if either at all. After all, the hosts were without star striker Victor Osimhen and greatly missed his attacking threat. They also can be forgiven for taking their eyes off the ball in Serie A so to speak, considering their insurmountable lead atop the table.

Osimhen’s services will be absent again on Wednesday night, which has proven to be perhaps the only thing that can stop their potent attack at the moment. In two matches without their striker, they’ve managed just two goals – and one of those was an own goal courtesy of Lecce to give them a 2-1 victory over the weekend. 

On the flip side, Milan followed up their win with a frustrating 0-0 draw against Empoli this weekend in a match that saw them compile 1.99 expected goals (xG) on 23 shots. They managed to put just four on target but couldn’t finish chances, and had a late winner ruled out by VAR.

This has been a worrying trend for the Rossoneri of late. Two matches before Napoli, they recorded a 1-1 draw with Salernitana despite holding a 2.29 to 0.78 xG advantage. Their 0-0 draw with Spurs in the Champions League Round of 16 saw them reach an xG of 1.42 goals without scoring. Even their 1-0 win over lowly Monza last month saw eight shots on goal and a 2.25 xG, but just one goal to show for their efforts. 

Milan have the talent to create and score goals, but their finishing has been inconsistent to the point of madness. The one thing they’ve excelled at since the return of Mike Maignan in goal is to prevent the opponent from finishing their chances. 

If you include his two starts with France, “Magic Mike” has kept four consecutive clean sheets with some outstanding saves to deny certain goals. He’s conceded just once in three matches at the San Siro. All three of those matches have seen two or fewer goals scored in total.

Napoli simply aren’t the same without Osimhen, and Maignan has been a wall at the back. Milan can’t be trusted to score goals on a consistent basis, and Napoli will likely learn from their mistakes and keep it tighter at the back while looking to win at home in the second leg. In fact, Napoli have conceded just one goal in total over their last eight away matches. 

The Under 2.5 is heavily juiced in this matchup, and I can’t really find anything strong to parlay it with to bring that number down. So instead, we will turn to the Asian market and take the Under 2 for our best bet. A two-goal match would return your wager as a push, but I genuinely believe that is the maximum number of goals we see.

My best bet: Under 2 (+120 at DraftKings)

AC Milan vs Napoli side analysis

Milan will likely return the entire starting XI that trounced Napoli a week and a half ago, and will be missing only Pierre Kaluku and Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the match. Milan will hope that continuity can end a two-match run of draws at home and stretch their unbeaten streak at the San Siro to six matches. They’ll also hope to continue their Italy-vs-Italy dominance in Champions League, with only one defeat in nine such contests. 

Osimhen is confirmed out of Napoli’s squad as the club announced on Tuesday that he didn’t train with the squad. His backup, Giovanni Simeone, was also ruled out on Tuesday with a bicep injury. To make matters worse, their third striker isn’t fully healthy, as Giacomo Raspadori is in a fitness race for the match. 

That’s a massive blow for a Napoli side that has won 24 of 29 Serie A matches this season and has scored 25 goals so far in the Champions League, the most of any team in the competition. That said, they’ve won 16 of 19 away matches in all competitions with just two defeats, and have won eight straight on the road. They’ve also lost just once at the San Siro to Milan in their last nine meetings, and have won three straight. 

This match is so evenly balanced given everything both teams are facing, and the 3-way line reflects that with no clear favored option. It’s hard to truly handicap, but if I were to pick a side, I would take Milan draw-no-bet or an outright draw. I don’t see Napoli getting the win given their lack of options in the middle against Milan’s strong defense, but I also can’t trust Milan to actually get the win. 

AC Milan vs Napoli Over/Under analysis

We’ve already done a deep dive into the total given our best bet, but the Under 2.5 is juiced upwards of -150 nearly everywhere. Were Napoli at full strength, that would undoubtedly not be the case. Milan’s last five matches at home have seen two or fewer goals, with no more than one goal scored in three of those contests. 

Even when at full strength, Napoli haven’t had many Overs of late. Their last two away fixtures have each gone Over 2.5, but prior to that they’d seen just two of 10 matches hit the three goal mark. Lecce’s goal at the weekend also ended a staggering seven-match run in all competitions without conceding an away goal. 

In their last six meetings at the San Siro, just once – a 2-1 win for Napoli in September – has the total gone over two goals. Whether you’re a fan of trends or a fan of form, all signs point to a low-scoring affair. 

AC Milan vs Napoli game info

AC Milan vs Napoli key injuries

AC Milan: Pierre Kalulu D (Out), Zlatan Ibrahimovic F (Out)
Napoli: Victor Osimhen F (Out), Giovanni Simeone F (Out), Giacomo Raspadori F (Questionable)

AC Milan vs Napoli weather

Wednesday’s forecast for Milan is not a fun one for players or fans. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s at kickoff, but rain is expected to move in during the first half and continue throughout proceedings.

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