A tournament darkhorse gets its Champions League knockout stage underway on Wednesday, as Ajax travel to the Portuguese capital for a meeting with Benfica.
The Dutch giants were fantastic in the group stage, dismantling their group with six wins from six and 20 goals scored against just five conceded. Ajax are rightfully the soccer betting favorite here after impressing so much in the group stage.
It wasn't as straightforward for Benfica, who just edged out Barca for second in the group, as they took eight points from six games. This up-and-down Champions League campaign for Benfica is headed for another dip, as our picks and predictions outline.
Benfica vs Ajax match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Benfica vs Ajax betting tips
Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some Champions League betting, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: The CL knockout rounds are here! Opti in at DraftKings and receive two (2) 16% single-game parlay profit boosts for this week's Round of 16 games. You must opt-in to the boost from your bet slip before placing the wager. Opt In Now
Canada: Sebastien Haller first goalscorer boosted to +450 at Betway! Sign Up Now
Benfica vs Ajax game info
• Location: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: fuboTV, Paramount+
Benfica vs Ajax betting preview
Weather
Rain is forecast for Wednesday night in Lisbon, with showers expected at kickoff and throughout the match. Temperatures are expected to be around 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Benfica: Haris Seferovic ST (Questionable), Lucas Verissimo CB (Questionable), Rodrigo Pinho ST (Questionable).
Ajax: Jurrien Timber CB (Questionable).
Benfica vs Ajax predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
With the sixth-best odds to win the Champions League, perhaps it's a stretch to call them a darkhorse but aside from the true heavyweights at the top, it's hard to pick a team more likely to go on a deep run than Ajax. They were absolutely fantastic throughout a group stage that included beating Dortmund by an aggregate score of 7-1 over two games.
Ajax's strong season has, as it typically would, extended domestically, where they are five points clear from rivals PSV. As was the case during their run to the semifinals just a few years ago, Ajax's domination in the Netherlands will allow them to play full-strength teams in the Champions League, too. This is bad news for Benfica, who will host the Amsterdam club on Wednesday.
Benfica resume the Champions League sitting third in a two-team title race in Portugal, with Sporting Lisbon and Porto having distanced themselves from their rival. Lisbon's place above Benfica in the Primeira Liga table is particularly helpful to us — and foreboding for Benfica.
That's because Ajax's group stage included two complete domination of that same Sporting team, with Ajax winning 5-1 in Lisbon and 4-2 in Amsterdam. And, that same Sporting team who was torn apart by Ajax and lead Benfica domestically, was just dominated by Man City, 5-0, at home to begin their Round of 16.
Ajax have proven to be among the strongest teams in the competition, and a cut above even Portugal's best teams. That will be evident again on Wednesday, as they go to Lisbon and get a third win in three trips this season.
Prediction: Ajax (-120)
Over/Under analysis
With a total of 2.5 on the board here, there's a high level of confidence in Ajax hitting the Over on their own.
Only Bayern and City scored more than Ajax in the group stage, while it was only City to outproduce Ajax in xG. Against Sporting alone, they scored nine times. In the Eredivisie, they are averaging just over three goals per game and have been held to one goal or fewer in just seven matches. Oh, and they have Sebastien Haller, who led the group stage in goals (10), goals per 90 (1.85), and goals + assists per 90 (2.05).
Not only will we happily take the Over 2.5 total goals (-127) but would go Over 2.5 for Ajax themselves at +215. This is an absolutely devastating attack for one of the competition's best teams against one of the competition's weakest remaining teams.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-127)
Best bet
It's quite amazing, considering his ill-fated time in the Premier League, but Haller is one of the most lethal goalscorers left in the competition. The Ivorian has been scoring for fun since joining Ajax last winter, with form that surprised some by extending into the Champions League.
In the Eredivisie this season, Haller has scored 16 goals in 20 starts, averaging 0.85 goals per 90 minutes. That, in itself, is the type of return an elite goalscorer boasts but it went up another level in Europe.
Over five starts in the group stage, Haller averaged 1.85 goals per 90. Only one goal was from the penalty spot and with an xG of 8.0 on his 10 goals, we can tell quite clearly there was nothing flukey about his output in the Champions League group stage.
A genuinely good striker in the best form of his career, expect Haller to continue his superb record with a goal against Benfica.
Pick: Sebastien Haller anytime goal (+130)
