Chelsea vs Arsenal Predictions & Picks for Sunday’s EPL Matchup

With both teams under immense pressure to keep pace with Liverpool, Emanuel Rosu believes we could see a defensive approach from both sides, with both clubs content to take a point.

Emanuel Rosu - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Emanuel Rosu • Betting Analyst
Nov 8, 2024 • 20:13 ET • 4 min read
Joao Felix Chelsea EPL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Both teams are under significant pressure heading into this London derby, so don't overlook the potential for the 'X' factor when analyzing the odds.

While both sides will be eager for a win, my Chelsea vs. Arsenal predictions believe the points will be split at Stamford Bridge. 

Read on for my Premier League predictions for Sunday, November 10. 

EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Arsenal

My best bet:
Draw (+250 at TonyBet)

My analysis

Both Chelsea and Arsenal have played midweek matches in their respective European competitions — Chelsea in the Conference League and Arsenal in the Champions League — and both teams are feeling the toll of a busy schedule. Players are fatigued after a series of matches across three competitions (Premier League, League Cup, and European football) over the past few weeks. After the Chelsea vs. Arsenal clash, many of the key players will head off for international duty. While they’re eager to wrap up the Nations League during the international break, their focus will remain on the derby until it’s done.

Arsenal, who had hoped to challenge Manchester City for a third consecutive season in the title race, have seen their plans derailed. The Gunners have only earned one point from their last three Premier League games, slipping to 5th place with 18 points. Liverpool lead the table on 25 points, with City just two behind. Chelsea sit above Arsenal on goal difference. On the topic of goals, Chelsea has seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six meetings with Arsenal in all competitions. Meanwhile, Arsenal have won five of their last six encounters with Chelsea.

This promises to be a derby played under special circumstances, considering the stakes and the current form of both teams. A draw wouldn’t be seen negatively by either side, especially with the international break offering a chance to reset. Given the form of both teams, I’d also consider the under 3.5 goals option, priced at a reasonable -209 via TonyBet.

Chelsea vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)

Draw

Under 3.5 goals

Over 5.5 bookings

It’s a derby match, so it’s bound to be intense, but don’t overlook the fact that both teams have had a hectic month. Arsenal are even facing something of a mini-crisis, with two defeats and a draw in their last three Premier League games, plus a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan in the Champions League. Chelsea, as the home side, looks better equipped to go for the three points, but a draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either team. I don’t expect many goals in this one, as both sides will prioritize the result over attacking flair.

Michael Oliver will be the referee for this match, and he's coming off a midweek Champions League game between PSV and Girona in which he showed eight yellow cards and a red. In my opinion, the potential for cards should never be ignored in derby matches like this one.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bet on soccer at TonyBet

One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!

Not available in Ontario.

Chelsea vs Arsenal odds

Chelsea vs Arsenal live odds

Chelsea vs Arsenal opening odds

  • Moneyline: Chelsea +175 | Arsenal +154
  • Draw: +250
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 -137 | Under 2.5 +117

Chelsea vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis

  • Arsenal have won five of their last six matches against Chelsea in all competitions.
  • Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six games against Arsenal in all competitions.
  • Arsenal have scored at least two goals in five of their last six matches against Chelsea in all competitions.

Chelsea vs Arsenal game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, London, UK
Date: Sunday, 11-10-2024
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: USA
Weather: 54F, 5 mph winds, 20% PoP.
Chelsea  recent EPL form D-W-L-D-W
Arsenal  recent EPL form L-D-L-W-W

Chelsea vs Arsenal key injuries

Chelsea: Cole Palmer CAM (questionable), Jadon Sancho LW (questionable).
Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori CB (out), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (out), Mikel Merino DM (questionable), Declan Rice CM (questionable), Raheem Sterling LW (out), Kai Haverts FW (questionable).

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Emanuel Rosu
Betting Analyst

Emanuel Roșu studied public administration but only to have a degree in something. He was always passionate about football. Writing about it, that is, as we've seen him play and he should feel fortunate he never took that road. He is based in Bucharest and has reported on Champions League, Europa League, and European Championship matches for various media outlets in Europe. He wrote stories for The Guardian, BBC, FourFourTwo, and many more. He represents Romania in the vote for the "Ballon d'Or", the most important individual trophy in world football.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo