City's ridiculous four-year run as the EFL Cup holders will finally come to an end Sunday, when Chelsea and Liverpool clash in the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley Stadium.
While City have been the dominant team in this competition lately, neither Liverpool nor Chelsea are looking to end a long trophy-less drought, with Chelsea winning the Champions League last spring and Liverpool winning the league two seasons ago. Both clubs have won this competition in the last decade, too.
Two games between these two in the league this year have resulted in draws, so how will the Carabao Cup Final turn out Sunday at Wembley? Find out with our soccer betting picks for Chelsea vs. Liverpool.
Chelsea vs Liverpool match odds
Chelsea: +220
Liverpool: +135
Draw: +225
Total: 2.5
Over: +110
Under: -140
Chelsea vs Liverpool betting tips
- Prediction: Liverpool (+135)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 (+110)
- Best bet: Mohamed Salah anytime goal (+175)
Predictions made on 2/26/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Chelsea vs Liverpool game info
• Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
• Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
• Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+, DAZN
Chelsea vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
It's set to be a beautiful, sunny day in London for the EFL Cup Final on Sunday. Clear skies are forecast with little wind, while temperatures are expected around 50 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff.
Injuries
Chelsea: Hakim Ziyech AM (Doubtful), Ben Chilwell LWB (Out).
Liverpool: Diogo Jota ST (Doubtful), Roberto Firmino ST (Out).
Chelsea vs Liverpool predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
It is, of course, not just any other game. It's a cup final at Wembley, with a chance to lift a trophy for your supporters on the line. But, for this purpose, we're going to analyze it as we would any other game, especially with the knowledge that almost every player on the pitch for Chelsea and Liverpool on Sunday have won trophies far more important than the Carabao Cup.
With that idea in mind, it's incredibly difficult to look any other direction than Liverpool's.
This relentless red machine overcame injuries, a COVID outbreak, and the African Cup of Nations, in which their best player participated, to not only stay in Manchester City's rearview in the title race but claw all the way back in, now just three points back.
Liverpool have done this on the back of a phenomenal attack. In 26 games in the Prem, they've scored 70 goals and created 66.6 expected goals, both of which are easily a league-high. Liverpool's 2.69 goals per game pace puts them on track to crack the century mark, and newfound depth should keep them on that path.
Even without strikers Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino, they can field a lethal front three of Luis Diaz, Mohamed Salah, and Sadio Mane operating through the middle, a combo which helped Liverpool to a 6-0 win midweek.
Even more frightening still is that the Reds' defense is improving every week, with Virgil van Dijk getting back to the world-class form he maintained before an ACL tear last season. With van Dijk at the heart of Liverpool's typical back four, they've maintained a defensive record that is in the Top 3 or 4 in nearly every metric. And that, in essence, is why we can't pick against them on Sunday.
Chelsea's strength is in their defensive stability and that's what vaulted them atop the league early in the season but recently, it hasn't been special enough to overcome an attack that's decidedly not special. Chelsea's defensive figures are more-or-less on par with Liverpool's but in attack, the two aren't comparable, as they trail the Reds by 21 goals scored and 24.6 xG.
These are two great teams led by world-class managers and a squad with plenty of big-game experience. However, Liverpool have repeatedly shown to have the cutting edge Chelsea lacks this season, and they have the true match-winner in Salah.
Prediction: Liverpool (+135)
Over/Under analysis
The two meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea this year in the league have finished with two and four goals, respectively.
The first, a 1-1 draw at Anfield, appeared headed for fireworks until a harsh red card given to Reece James killed any chance of second-half excitement, with a fairly toothless Liverpool unable to break through a compact Chelsea team. Yet, they combined to create 3.4 xG and it would've been higher had referee Anthony Taylor not killed the show just before half.
The second, a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge, was a fantastic game. While it finished with 2.6 xG total (1.3 from each), that figure is shrunk by fabulous — and highly unrepeatable — goals from Salah and Mateo Kovacic.
Overall, it's surprising to see this total leaning so heavily to the Under. Between these two teams' previous meetings, the potential for Chelsea's second-choice Kepa Arrizabalaga to join Liverpool's second-choice Caoimhin Kelleher between the sticks, and the value in taking the Over, that's where we are going.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (+110)
Best bet
The first half of the Premier League season was defined by, among other things, Mohamed Salah staking his claim to the title of best player in the world. Liverpool's Egyptian King was unplayable, scoring 23 goals in 26 games between the league and Champions League from the start of the season until January 3, when he left for the African Cup of Nations.
While Salah would come up just short with Egypt at AFCON, you wouldn't know he's carrying the weight of defeat. Since he's returned to Liverpool he has seemingly gone up another level. Salah was an absolute terror in his return, a brief 31-minute cameo in which he tormented Leicester City, and he followed it up by being at the heart of the team's attacks vs. Burnley.
Those two impressive showings were, evidently, a warm-up, as Salah has since scored four goals and assisted another in the subsequent three games to take the lead in both goals and assists in the Premier League. He's the best player in the world at the peak of his powers, and he has scored two goals in two games so far this season against Chelsea.
There's no stopping Salah at the moment, and no reason not to back him to score again vs. the Blues.
Pick: Mohamed Salah anytime goal (+175)
