Colombia vs Jamaica Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Defense Prevails in Round of 16

Two of the best stories of the 2023 Women’s World Cup will collide on Tuesday morning when Colombia and Jamaica meet for a spot in the quarterfinals. 

Colombia was partly responsible for Germany getting dumped from the tournament in the group stage, as they defeated the European power 2-1 en route to winning Group H, but the Powerpuff Girls will need to be at their best to advance.

This Jamaican side has yet to concede a goal in the tournament despite playing both France and Brazil and has reached the knockout stage against all odds.

Can Colombia find a way to break through, or will the Reggae Girlz see their amazing run continue? We delve into that and more in our Colombia vs. Jamaica betting picks for Tuesday, August 8.  

Colombia vs Jamaica odds

Colombia		Jamaica
+105	Moneyline	+300
+220	Draw	+220
Over 2.5 (+170)	Total	Under 2.5 (-225)

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of August 7, 2023.

Colombia vs Jamaica picks and predictions

If soccer fans weren’t familiar with Rebecca Spencer before the tournament, they are now. She leads the World Cup with a 2.4 xG prevented, stopping 13 shots so far in the tournament and keeping Jamaica’s perfect defensive record intact.

Against Brazil, she came up with save after save down the stretch, stopping eight shots as her team was trapped in their own penalty box with the Brazilians searching for the goal they needed to go through. 

But she and her teammates nearly didn’t get the chance to even play in this tournament. They needed multiple fundraising efforts, including a GoFundMe, just to get on their flights. Now that they’re here, the Reggae Girlz are making the most of their opportunity. 

Jamaica isn’t getting clean sheets against tiny nations. They’ve taken scoreless draws from two matches against powerhouses, combining to average just 27.5% possession against France and Brazil and not conceding despite 13 shots on goal and 32 total shots against. They’ve also successfully defended against 25 corners.

And their defensive prowess is why the Under 2.5 is juiced heavily, but that’s not a problem for us — because your best bet is to take the Under 1.5 at +150 instead.

Jamaica isn’t scoring much, with just one goal against Panama so far in the tournament and only six shots on goal. And Colombia’s defense is stout as well, having conceded only two goals — one to Germany and one in their defeat to Morocco.

However, Colombia has also been struggling in front of goal. While they’ve outperformed their xG, registering four goals against a 1.87 expected tally, striker Mayra Ramirez has no goals despite 10 shots. Only two of her efforts have been on target, and they managed just three shots on target against Morocco despite 60% possession.

There’s one other factor helping our bet, and that’s the weather. Winds are expected to be in the mid-teens, but gusts of more than 30 mph will make things a bit tricky in regards to set pieces and long passes. 

I see this match going one of two ways. Either we get another scoreless draw — Jamaica’s third in four matches — or one of these two sides finds a goal and sees things out in a 1-0 win. Both of those outcomes would see our best bet come through, and the price is simply too good to pass up. 

My best bet: Under 1.5 (+150 at DraftKings)

Colombia vs Jamaica same-game parlay

Under 1.5 (+137)

Columbia Over 2.5 shots on goal (-450)

Mayra Ramirez Over 2.5 shots (-138)

Mayra Ramirez Over 0.5 shots on goal (-200)

+650 at bet365

While the Under 1.5 goals pays out nicely, it also plays into a terrific same-game parlay over at bet365 when we combine it with the shots we’re likely to see from Colombia.

Jamaica are content to sit back and absorb pressure. So far in the tournament, they’ve seen at least 13 shots against in all three matches, 17 of which were put on target.

On the flip side, Colombia has put at least three shots on goal in every match thus far, with 12 total on 37 shots attempted. Three should be the basement in this match with how it’ll play out, which is why we’ll take that here.

Jamaica has faced five starting strikers through three matches, and every one of them has managed an effort on goal against them. Colombia’s striker is set to replicate that as the last pieces of our parlay.

Ramirez is a volume shooter. She has attempted 10 shots so far in the tournament, with at least three efforts in each of the three matches so far. While they haven’t always been the highest-quality attempts — she’s managed just two shots on goal for an xG of 0.58 — she’s put a shot on target in two of Colombia’s three matches. 

With Jamaica sitting back, Colombia will likely enjoy their highest possession number of the tournament, surpassing the 60% they had against Morocco. That should lead to her equaling her lowest number of shots and shots on goal so far, rounding out a +650 same-game parlay. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colombia vs Jamaica spread and Over/Under analysis

The consensus is on Colombia to win this match in regulation. They’re priced around +110 with Jamaica getting as high as +300. The draw — which is what I’ll be playing — is also paying out nicely, with +240 on offer in some places. Colombia backers are betting on the play of Linda Caicedo, the 18-year-old star who has scored two of her side’s four goals. 

Bunny Shaw is a constant threat for the Reggae Girlz, and at just 26 years old, the Man City forward is already her nation’s leading goalscorer. She'll lead Jamaica’s attack and while she’s not yet scored a goal, her chances of doing so improve against a Colombia defense missing Manuela Vanegas due to suspension. 

I like Jamaica to not only get a result in regulation but to go through. Spencer’s play is carrying this team, and should it reach penalties, I wouldn’t bet against her no matter the odds. They seem to have something special going, and I don’t think their story is quite ready to be concluded.

As for the total, we’ve already gone over the Under 1.5 for our best bet. Those wishing to bet the standard 2.5 line will see a price of -220 or worse for the Under and +170 for those who believe we’ll see a shootout. The Over 1.5 line is also priced around -190, so there’s not a whole lot of value in that region without navigating to the Asian totals. 

Colombia vs Jamaica game info

Colombia vs Jamaica key injuries

Colombia: Manuela Vanegas D (Out).
Jamaica: No key injuries to report.

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