Argentina seeks to reach the Copa America 2024 final after reaching their fifth consecutive semifinal in the competition. It took penalties to get here, but they were able to get past Ecuador to remain unbeaten in their last nine fixtures. Ecuador’s late penalty is also the only goal that Lionel Messi’s Argentinian side have conceded in the tournament.
Canada is the lone CONCACAF representative in the final four, and they’ve won the hearts of their country. They’ve scored only twice but have shown a defensive grit and willingness to fight for every blade of grass, and have done a stellar job fighting the Copa America odds their tournament debut. Now they look to become the first North American side to reach the final in 22 years.
I explain why they’ll at least make things tough for a half in my Argentina vs. Canada predictions for Tuesday, July 9.
Argentina vs Canada picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Canada +0.5 1H (-114 at Betano)
My analysis
As talented of a team as Argentina is, scoring goals hasn’t come easily for them in Copa America. They managed only five goals in the group stage and needed penalties to advance to the semifinals after a 1-1 draw with Ecuador.
Their single goal in that quarterfinal match came via a Lisandro Martinez header, as the defender managed to get enough space to finish off a corner kick. The 35th-minute tally was Argentina’s first goal prior to halftime in the competition.
Despite the goal, La Albiceleste managed just 0.49 xG in the opening 45 minutes. It marked the third time in their four matches where they failed to register 0.50 xG or higher prior to halftime. They managed 0.76 xG against a hapless Chilean side, whom they outshot 13-0 in the first half, and still couldn’t score.
Argentina opened the tournament with a 2-0 victory over Canada, but they were fortunate not to trail at halftime. Canada matched Argentina shot-for-shot with each side putting seven efforts on the board, but the Canadians had the better opportunities. They had a 0.77-0.44 xG advantage, and took three shots within eight yards versus just one for Argentina.
While things got away in the second half, Canada went toe-to-toe with the world champions and I think they know they can do it again. Canada has allowed just three goals in this competition, none of which have come prior to halftime. And they took an early lead against Venezuela in the quarterfinals, as Jacob Shaffelburg put them ahead inside 15 minutes.
I don’t think Canada will hold off Argentina for a full 90 minutes. I think the Cinderella story ends here, but Jesse Marsch’s side has shown resilience, fight, and an ability to frustrate their opponent. Canada will be in this one at halftime, and I’ll take the Asian spread of +0.5 for the first half as they hold a slow-starting Argentinian side at bay.
Lionel Messi odds, prop for today
My best bet
Over 33.5 passes (-118 at Betano)
My analysis
It’s hard to figure out Messi’s prop bets in this competition, as his offensive options are priced quite high. He’s even-money to score a goal despite not having one yet in the tournament. His shot total is set at 3.5 even though he’s taken just one in each of his last two matches.
But his passing prop offers some value, especially with how this match should play out. At 33.5 passes, the Over is my play here. It’s a number he’s reached in two of his three matches in this competition, clearing it easily against Chile and the first meeting with Canada.
Only Ecuador held him below the number, as he managed just 26 passes — but they also were the only team of the three to have better than 39% possession against Argentina. They went heads-up and had 49% of the ball in that match.
Canada are going to look to sit deep and hit on the break, much as they have throughout this tournament. They managed just 36% possession against Argentina in the opener. That once again means lots of side-to-side passing, and Messi got on the ball plenty as a striker in the first meeting. He’ll likely be out wide this time in a 4-3-3 or partnered with Lautaro Martinez in a 4-4-2, and should see even more of the ball.
Messi had 42 passes in the first matchup, and took six shots on the day. Three found the target, although none of them got past Maxime Crepeau. There’s no guarantee he will get the same opportunities here, so take the Over on passes and avoid the randomness of shots.
Argentina vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)
Canada +1 1H
Messi 34+ passes
Argentina moneyline
As an American, I’ll be rooting for our fellow CONCACAF nation to carry the banner. Unfortunately, Canada’s inability to consistently score goals will be their undoing as they’ve managed just two goals in regulation through four matches. Argentina has so many weapons at the attacking end that they eventually wear their opponents down.
That’s not to say it’ll be easy. I see Argentina needing well into the second half before they finally break through, but once they do it’ll be difficult for Canada to fight back. I also think there’s something to playing in a semifinal for the first time against a team that has won the last World Cup and has veterans who know what it takes. These players have done their nation proud, but Canada’s run will fall short of the final.
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Argentina vs Canada odds
| Argentina | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| -256 | Moneyline | +875 |
| Over 2.5 (+105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-128) |
| +390 | Draw | +390 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-8.
Argentina vs Canada game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 9, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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