Argentina are on the brink of capping a magical four-year run with a second straight Copa America crown, but a fearless Colombia team stands in their way on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium.
Few teams can compete with the World Cup champs’ star power, yet the Colombians have game-changers of their own, so we could be set for an open, attacking Final.
It’s time to scour the Copa America odds one last time, and there’s no shortage of good options. Here are my three favorite Argentina vs. Colombia predictions.
Argentina vs Colombia props for July 14
- Lionel Messi anytime scorer (+182 at Betano)
- Luis Diaz Over 0.5 shots on goal (-110 at Betano)
- Emiliano Martinez Over 3.5 saves (+177 at Betano)
Picks made on 7-13 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Best Argentina vs Colombia prop bets today
Prop bet #1: Messi all business
It had to be him. A Lionel Messi prop feels like a no-brainer for a big stage like this, and I like this price for the Argentina talisman to get on the scoresheet.
While I’m surprised that it took until the 51st minute of El Celeste’s fifth game at this tournament for Messi to open his account — scoring against Canada in the semifinal — I see him repeating the trick here, whether it’s from open play, a free-kick or a penalty.
It won’t be easy against Colombia’s battle-tested defense, but it’s fair to wonder how much Los Cafeteros have left in the tank after having to dig so deep against Uruguay on Wednesday while playing with 10 men for 45 minutes.
It’s also a slight red flag that Daniel Muñoz is suspended for the final, forcing Nestor Lorenzo to make a change at right-back. Could that unsettle the Colombia backline? Left-back Johan Mojica has been outstanding, but Messi has the freedom to cut inside and run at the Colombia center-backs instead.
Argentina are chasing a record-breaking 16th Copa America triumph here, and I’m wagering on one more magic moment to add to Messi’s G.O.A.T. case.
Lionel Messi prop: Anytime scorer (+182 at Betano)
Prop bet #2: Carpe Diaz
If Colombia are going to seize their chance and pull off an upset, it starts with a dynamic display from Luis Diaz. Full of running, Diaz brings the energy for Los Cafeteros and he still looked a threat in transition in midweek when they were hanging on against Uruguay.
The trends look good on this prop. Diaz has had at least one shot on target in four of his five appearances at this tournament, including goals against Costa Rica and Panama.
He backs himself to test the keeper from distance and just needs a yard of space to let fly. As he showed at times for Liverpool last season, Diaz is capable of spectacular strikes.
Even with a quick turnaround after the grueling semifinal, his pace will pose problems for the right side of Argentina’s defense and, with James Rodriguez pulling the strings and recording six assists already at Copa America 2024, the service should be there for Diaz when he makes runs in behind.
The Argentine backline hasn’t been fully tested on this run to the final or faced forwards of this caliber — but that’s about to change on Sunday, with Diaz leading the Colombia charge.
Luis Diaz prop: Over 0.5 shots on goal (-110 at Betano)
Prop bet #3: Emi feels the heat
Emiliano Martinez has had some stress-free Copa outings over the past few weeks, conceding just a single goal at the tournament and piling up four clean sheets. While there have been a few clutch saves, he’s been a spectator for long periods.
But I’m predicting a much busier night for Martinez here against a Colombia attack that brings a devastating mix of pace, power, and guile.
Diaz, Rodriguez, and Jhon Cordoba all offer something different in the final third for Los Cafeteros, who are also a threat at set pieces, as they showed against Uruguay. Argentina will need Martinez — and all his eccentricity — if they’re going to lift the trophy in Miami on Sunday.
Colombia have racked up 12 goals and 23 shots on target across their five games so far, and I don’t see Nestor Lorenzo’s men sitting back and letting Argentina dictate terms. The Colombians had 49% possession against Brazil in a contest where they only needed a point to top the group, and we should see a similar mindset here.
Los Cafeteros have only lost once to Argentina in their last five meetings, and they’re on a 28-game unbeaten run since that one defeat. That sounds like the kind of unfazed opponent that could push Martinez & Co. to the limit.
Emiliano Martinez prop: Over 3.5 saves (+177 at Betano)
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