Munich will get the marquee matchup of the quarterfinals at Euro 2020 on Friday, with world No. 1 Belgium taking on one of the group stage's most impressive teams in Italy. It'll be a second straight heavyweight opponent for Belgium, after they dispatched Portugal in the Round of 16, while Italy required extra time to get past Austria.
Which of these two Euro contenders will have their tournament end on Friday? Read on for our tips and predictions.
Game info
• Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
• Date: Friday, July 2, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN
Belgium vs Italy betting tips
- Draw (+210)
- Belgium to qualify (+110)
Read on for complete analysis
Belgium vs Italy match odds
Belgium: +230
Italy: +137
Draw: +210
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +137
Under 2.5: -175
Odds as of June 30, 2021, at 1:50 p.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of noon ET Friday, three hours pre-match, BetMGM Nevada's three-way moneyline remains stable at Italy +135/Belgium +225/Draw +200. "This one looks a lot like Switzerland-Spain, a few more tickets on the 'dog, but money about 4/1 on Italy," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "They're also playing Italy -0.5 (+135)." The total is a tight 2, opening at the flat -110 and now at Over -135. "It's roughly 5/1 tickets and 4/1 money on the Over," Shelton said.
Belgium vs Italy betting preview
Weather
Belgium and Italy will play under cloudy conditions in Munich Friday, with temperatures expected around 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
Key injuries
Belgium: Kevin De Bruyne (Questionable), Eden Hazard (Questionable), Timothy Castagne (Questionable).
Italy: Giorgio Chiellini (Questionable), Alessandro Florenzi (Questionable).
Matchup
| Belgium | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | World Ranking | 7 |
| 8 | Goals For | 9 |
| 1 | Goals Against | 1 |
| 1-0 vs. Portugal | Previous Game | 2-1 vs. Austria |
| Romelu Lukaku | Player to Watch | Marco Verratti |
Belgium vs Italy predictions
Moneyline pick
Despite an uncharacteristically wasteful performance from Romelu Lukaku, Belgium were able to capitalize on Portugal's passive play and advance in one of the more difficult Round of 16 matchups. They will not be able to afford a similarly frustrating performance from Lukaku against Italy in the quarterfinals, with both Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard doubtful to be fit in time for Friday.
Though Hazard has been a wildcard from the outset of the tournament, with whatever Belgium is able to get from him a bonus after the wasted two years he has had, missing De Bruyne is seemingly crushing. The former Premier League Player of the Year is the best, most impactful player every time he steps on the pitch, and that has included his brief playing time at Euro 2020.
However, as they have throughout the tournament, Belgium can look to Youri Tielemans to take on the creative onus, while Thorgan Hazard has given them a different dynamic storming down the left. Hazard's ability to progress the ball, in particular, will be an issue for Italy with right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo on a yellow card after their win over Austria.
Italy's path to winning this quarterfinal tie is to completely control the midfield which, on paper, they could certainly do. However, Axel Witsel's rapid recovery to get fit for Belgium could be the difference, as he hasn't skipped a beat since returning. A formation change for Belgium could be coming, too, in order to start all three of Tielemans, Witsel, and Leander Dendocker and mitigate the risk of being overrun centrally.
In the most evenly split matchup of the quarterfinals, it's difficult to see either time finding an edge over 90 minutes. Both teams are rightfully plus money to win in regular time, but the smart money is with the draw.
PREDICTION: Draw (+210)
Qualification pick
Italy supporters pleasantly surprised by their team's roaring start to Euro 2020 may have also held concerns over their best play coming out of the gate. Compounding any concerns around an early peak was that Italy played all three group stage games in the cozy confines of Rome, while the knockout stages will see them move around Europe, first to Wembley and now to Munich.
While Italy earned a fourth consecutive win in Euro 2020 in the Round of 16 and their 12th straight win in all competitions, to go 31 matches unbeaten, it was quite easily their least convincing win of the tournament. After cruising through the group stage without ever even really being tested, they were pushed to extra time by a mediocre Austria side.
The Round of 16 saw Italy allow a higher expected goals against Austria (1.2) than they did in the entire group stage (1.0), while they created their lowest xG of the tournament at 1.6.
After an uninspiring win over Austria, Italy now get the single toughest game of the quarterfinal. A fantastic group stage has given them the status of favorites, but that status is misguided. Belgium are a better, deeper squad, with plenty of tournament experience after reaching the semifinal in the World Cup in 2018 — while Italy sat at home after failing to qualify.
In their first trip outside of Italy at the Euros, the Azzurri were pushed up against the ropes. In their second, to Munich for a quarterfinals date with Belgium, they'll be knocked out.
PREDICTION: Belgium to qualify (+110)
Picks made on 6/30/2021 at 5:45 p.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
