Switzerland nearly upset Germany to top Group A, but a stoppage-time equalizer means they face Italy in the Euro 2024 Round of 16. The Swiss have taken a result from 16 of their last 17 matches, but have won just one of their last seven matches at this stage in a major international tournament.
Italy barely escaped the group stage on the back of a dramatic goal against Czechia, and have given themselves a chance to defend their European crown. But their attack is struggling mightily and will be tested by a stout Swiss backline.
Find out why we’re backing a cagey affair in our Switzerland vs Italy prediction for Saturday, June 29’s Euro 2024 picks.
Switzerland vs Italy picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Draw (+182 at Betano)
My analysis
Switzerland’s defense doesn’t get the credit it deserves. It’s easy to look at their results and see they conceded a goal in all three group stage matches. But look closer and you’ll realize their goal against Scotland came because of a terrible deflection past keeper Yann Sommer. And against Germany, they were winning in stoppage time before a goal leveled the match and cost them the top spot in the group.
Now the Swiss come up against the Azzurri, and many of the players in this fixture have strong familiarity with one another. Sommer plays in goal for Inter Milan, while four of the likely starters in front of him ply their trade on the peninsula as well — with three of them being teammates at Bologna.
In addition, Switzerland have tasted defeat just once in their last 17 matches since the start of 2023. Nine of those 17 outings have ended in a stalemate, and I’m expecting this one to be the same result.
The loss of Riccardo Calafiori for Italy can’t be understated. Arguably their best outfield player in this tournament, he started all three matches, and despite being a central defender was very adept at moving the ball forward. He registered an assist against Croatia and racked up nearly 30 tackles during the group stage.
Not only does his suspension likely force Italy to play a bit more cautiously on the defensive end, but it robs them of another player who can impact their stagnant attack. The Azzurri scored just three goals in group play, with only the last-gasp equalizer against the Czechs coming from a forward.
Their strikers aren’t providing any real threat, something that simply won’t work against this Swiss back line. They’ll have to scrape and claw for a goal, hoping their midfield and attacking fullbacks can generate offense.
On the flip side, Switzerland scored five goals in their opening matches, but they generated just six big chances. Gigi Donnarumma will provide their biggest test yet, as Italy’s goalkeeper was outstanding in the group stage, conceding just three times in the group stage, with one of those goals coming from a horrific first-minute error in the opener vs Albania.
These two nations have played to a draw in five of their last six meetings, including twice in 2021 with many of the same players. Furthermore, no nation has been involved in more knockout-stage draws than Italy in major international tournaments, nor gone to more penalty shootouts.
With neither side wanting to make a mistake, and both having exceptional goalkeepers playing at a high level, I see this one heading to extra time and possibly penalties.
Switzerland vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Switzerland to qualify
Draw
Under 2.5 goals
Having been born in Napoli, I’ll be rooting with all my being for Italy to advance on Saturday and reach the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. But I fear I’ll be rooting in vain, as I expect the Swiss to survive and advance in what should be a tense affair.
They’ve generated the higher-quality opportunities so far in the tournament, and have been more consistent throughout. It may take penalties, but I see the Swiss moving on here and sending my Azzurri home earlier than expected.
Of those aforementioned nine draws over their last 17 matches, the Swiss have been involved in five 1-1 results. The betting public has already driven the total in this match to 1.5 and I’m with them, as I see this being a low-scoring affair. I’m projecting a 1-1 score at the end of regulation, and we’ll add the Under 2.5 into our parlay to give it some boost.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Switzerland vs Italy odds
| Switzerland | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| +250 | Moneyline | +140 |
| Over 1.5 (-182) | Total | Under 1.5 (+150) |
| +185 | Draw | +185 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-28
Switzerland vs Italy game info
| Location: | Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany |
| Date: | Saturday, June 29, 2024 |
| Time: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: |
Sunny and dry conditions. |
Not intended for use in MA.
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