Thursday at Goodison is a tale of two managers, as Everton and Newcastle both made changes on the touchline amid relegation-bound form earlier this season. Since then, their respective fortunes have stood in contrast with one club pulling themselves clear and another sinking further.
Newcastle United have already responded to crunch time this season but head Merseyside as considerable Premier League betting underdogs. Will Everton prove EPL oddsmakers correct and get a desperately needed result?
Here are our free soccer picks and predictions for Everton vs. Newcastle United, with kickoff set for March 17.
Everton vs Newcastle match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Everton vs Newcastle betting tips
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Everton vs Newcastle game info
• Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool, England
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock, DAZN
Everton vs Newcastle betting preview
Weather
Newcastle and Everton are primed to have good conditions Thursday night at Goodison Park, with clear skies and temperatures around 50 degrees Fahrenheit forecast at kickoff.
Injuries
Everton: Dominic Calvert-Lewin ST (Questionable), Tom Davies CM (Out), Fabian Delph CM (Out), Yerry Mina CB (Out).
Newcastle: Jonjo Shelvey CM (Questionable), Joelinton CM (Questionable), Kieran Trippier RB (Out), Callum Wilson ST (Out).
Everton vs Newcastle predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Let's just get the general point of this pick established: It's downright ridiculous Everton are favored at all here. They have no reason to be.
Between key additions in the January transfer window and an extended period for new manager Eddie Howe to make his impact, Newcastle have become a changed team. Prior to losing at Stamford Bridge to Chelsea on Sunday, they had gone nine games unbeaten in the league with 21 points from 27 during that spell.
Centerback Dan Burn, signed in January from Brighton, has formed a fantastic partnership with Fabian Schar which has provided Newcastle with their first dependable defensive line since former manager Rafa Benitez left the club in the summer of 2019. Prior to that nine-match unbeaten run, Newcastle had conceded 42 goals in 19 league games but during that spell, they conceded just six goals (and never more than one in a single game).
They're enjoying a similar boon in the midfield, where a trio of Joe Willock, Joelinton, and Jonjo Shelvey have combined to give Newcastle tremendous balance and physicality. Their form has been so complete that they effectively kept 40-million-pound signing Bruno Guimaraes on the bench, despite the Brazilian international being a level above any other player in the squad.
The way in which Howe has improved the squad, as a whole, at Newcastle was best exemplified in a rare defeat, Sunday in London. That game saw Newcastle, hit by injuries and illness, use a different formation and a brand new midfield pair of Sean Longstaff and Guimaraes on late notice. Yet, they were toe-to-toe with Chelsea, pressing and passing with more efficiency, and unlucky to not get either controversial decision in their favor, with red card and penalty incidents going uncalled before Chelsea found the winner in the 89th minute.
It's been a vastly different tune at Everton under Frank Lampard, who are now just above the relegation zone due to goal difference. There has been absolutely no sign of improvement from Lampard's side, with Everton having taken three points from a possible 18 in his six league games. Among those five losses is a 3-1 loss to this same Newcastle team just five weeks ago, in which they were roundly outplayed.
Under Howe, Newcastle are a tangibly improving team with a ton of momentum and a squad in great form. Everton, in contrast, have teetered between mediocre and terrible under Lampard, with no evidence of better times ahead. Capitalize on misguided odds and take Newcastle United to take three points on Thursday.
Prediction: Newcastle United (+210)
Over/Under analysis
Despite Lampard's previous experience as a manager, in which his teams often attacked freely while sacrificing defensive stability, goals have not exactly flowed under his watch at Everton. The club have gone over 370 minutes since they last scored in the league, with four consecutive clean sheets.
In fact, excluding the own goal Everton received in the first meeting with Newcastle, they've scored only three goals under Lampard. All three came against Leeds, who have conceded more goals (65) than any other club in the Premier League. Add in striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin's uncertain fitness for Thursday and it's difficult to imagine Everton breaking this goalless drought.
Newcastle, for their part, don't exactly have the attacking quality to top this total on their own. With Callum Wilson injured and Allan Saint-Maximin returning to full fitness, they've become increasingly reliant on playing off target man Chris Wood. That has been helped by improving performances from Willock and Ryan Fraser but the lack of genuine quality up front is still glaring.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-141)
Best bet
We're doubling down on the Toon to take three points at Goodison because of the value their underdog status presents.
As highlighted above, Newcastle's recent 10-match stretch, with six wins (four of which came away), three draws, and a tough-luck loss to Chelsea, showed so much reason for optimism. The performances didn't drop even amid squad rotation and grueling away trips to Southampton then London in the space of days. Over those previous 10 games, Newcastle boast a goal difference of +7 and an expected goal difference of +3.3.
Lampard's Everton, meanwhile, are boasting a troubling record of one win and five losses since he took charge, with two of those losses coming at Goodison. Worse yet, they've rarely even looked competitive with the team routinely beaten in xG by a wide margin. Lampard's six games have seen Everton have a goal difference of -8 and an xGD of -5.7.
While Newcastle may only be nine points and three spots in the table above Everton, the difference between these two teams has been increasingly obvious every week.
Pick: Newcastle United (+210)
