After a week of humiliating results, Manchester United hits the road today as Fulham welcomes them to Craven Cottage for an early Premier League fixture.
The hosts sit 14th in the table heading into Matchweek 11 and hope to welcome back a few key players to the squad. They are coming off a 3-1 win in the EFL Cup at midweek and will look to push their unbeaten stretch to three straight and pick up a fifth win in seven matches at home in all competitions.
For the Red Devils, things are approaching critical mass for manager Erik ten Hag. In the past week, they’ve suffered a pair of 3-0 defeats at home to Manchester City in the league and to Newcastle United to eliminate them from the EFL Cup. With tensions reportedly growing in the locker room and unrest in the fan base, anything but a victory could push things closer to the boiling point.
My EPL predictions for Fulham vs Manchester United for Saturday, November 4 break down the EPL odds and explain why the kettle might start whistling very soon.
Fulham vs Manchester United best odds
EPL predictions for Fulham vs Manchester United
Manchester United have more talent than Fulham, and if this were a one-off match on paper then the Red Devils would have no problem sweeping their opponents aside.
But this isn’t a one-off match, and we’re backing Fulham to get the job done on Saturday as we take a price that is far too high given the current circumstances.
Manchester United is minus-5 in goal differential this season, the worst it’s been in England’s top flight in 50 years after 10 matches and just one goal better than their worst-ever Premier League mark. Their leading scorer is Scott McTominay, with the deep-lying midfielder having bagged three goals so far.
But that’s what happens when you look disorganized and lost, which is exactly how ten Hag’s sides have appeared of late. Part of that can be written off to injuries, with their entire first-choice back line being out for more than a month. It’s forced him to play people out of position at times and has limited their ability to build from the back.
Raphael Varane was back, though, and ready to go for the Manchester Derby a week ago. Ten Hag left him out for “tactical reasons” as he repeatedly expressed in pre-match interviews. Those tactics blew up in his face, as the Red Devils were outclassed for 90 minutes by their cross-town rivals.
Heavy rotation followed midweek, and it mattered little. Newcastle fielded a somewhat comical lineup, and they easily rolled to a 3-0 win as Manchester United had more captains on the day—three—than shots on goal.
Fulham aren’t allowing many shots, with only five teams facing fewer. While they’re letting quite a few of them get in on goal, they’ve also faced Manchester City, Tottenham, Brighton, and Arsenal already in their first 10 matches.
Those four teams all rank in the Top 7 in that category. And despite that, they’re outperforming their expected goals against. One of their biggest issues is committing high turnovers, ranking 2nd in the league according to Opta.
You’d think that would be bad news against Manchester United, who lead the Premier League with 112 high turnovers forced. Well, it would be…if Manchester United had actually scored a goal from any one of those situations. They haven’t even attempted 20 shots from those opportunities, much less scored a goal.
Manchester United have won just seven times in all competitions, against eight defeats. Three of those wins came before the two losses this week, but none of them were convincing.
They needed two stoppage-time goals from McTominay to win at home against Brentford. They needed an amazing goal from defender Diogo Dalot to avoid losing to lowly Sheffield United. And they needed a last-second penalty save to win against Copenhagen.
There won’t be a miraculous win here, or another comeback. Fulham are getting healthy, they’re at home, and they have the early match against a side that has won just once in their last 11 trips to London.
TonyBet is offering Fulham to win at +217, which indicates implied odds of 31.5% for Fulham to claim all three points. I’ve got the Cottagers closer to 35% which gives us enough of an edge to take this as our best bet.
If you want to protect against the draw, then the draw-no bet at +130 is good value as well, but we’re backing the more composed side against a team whose manager simply has no clue what he’s doing right now.
My best bet: Fulham moneyline (+217 at TonyBet)
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Fulham vs Manchester United same-game parlay
Fulham moneyline
Joao Palhinha over 4.5 tackles
Under 4 goals
For our same-game parlay at bet365, we’re adding two plays to Fulham winning outright.
First, we’re going to back Joao Palhinha to get at least five tackles. Fulham’s midfielder is a man possessed of late, with 25 tackles combined against Brighton, Tottenham, and Sheffield United. He had 10 last week against Brighton alone; five shouldn’t be an issue here.
We’re also taking under four goals in the match. Fulham’s not conceding a ton of chances, and Manchester United aren’t scoring many. With neither team getting consistent goals from their forwards, it’s hard to see a high-scoring affair.
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Fulham vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis
We’ve already picked Fulham to win outright, and the public is on board. Their price has shifted down from +275 earlier in the week, as people saw how terrible the Red Devils looked against Newcastle.
Despite all that, Man United are still favored with a price as high as +125 on offer. The Draw is also paying at +270.
Manchester United have actually won 13 of their last 15 meetings with Fulham, including each of the last six at Craven Cottage. But history doesn’t matter when you’re playing as badly as Man United are. They’re also dealing with yet another injury, with Casemiro ruled out on Friday morning.
The total of 2.5 goals is seeing more action on the Over, with a price between -120 and -145. But I think the Under offers some value. This match has the feel of 1-0 or 2-0 to Fulham, and I like getting as good as +115.
In their four away matches this season in league play, Manchester United have managed just four goals—and two of those came in stoppage time against the worst team in the league.
Fulham vs Manchester United game info
| Location: | Craven Cottage, London, England |
| Date: | Saturday, November 4, 2023 |
| Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
| Weather: | 55F, POP: 70% |
Fulham vs Manchester United key injuries
Fulham: Issa Diop D (Out), Kenny Tete D (Questionable), Adama Traore F (Questionable).
Manchester United: Casemiro M (Out), Luke Shaw D (Out), Lisandro Martinez D (Out).
Fulham vs Manchester United recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Fulham |
L-W-L-D-W |
 Manchester United |
L-W-L-W-L |
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