After securing their status in the Premier League on the final day of last season, Leeds United have had a strong start to their new campaign after a summer filled with massive changes.
Now they play host to a Chelsea side that entered the season with hopes of competing for a title, and with a manager in Thomas Tuchel, who made matters worse after their draw last week with a touchline dust-up.
Leeds believe they have a chance to get a result from this match, but can they do enough to take points at Elland Road?
Find out in our Leeds United vs. Chelsea picks and predictions for Sunday, August 21.
Leeds vs Chelsea match odds
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Leeds vs Chelsea betting tips
- Prediction: Leeds double chance (+165)
- Prediction: Over 2.75 Asian handicap (-120)
- Best bet: BTTS (-134)
Predictions made on 8/20/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Leeds vs Chelsea game info
• Location: Elland Road, Leeds, England
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network
Leeds vs Chelsea betting preview
Weather
Some would say the weather will be quite nice in Leeds on Sunday, with a temperature of 69 degrees expected at kickoff. While there is a slight chance of rain, conditions should remain dry with a light breeze.
Injuries
Leeds: Junior Firpo D (Out), Patrick Bamford F (Out), Liam Cooper D (Doubtful), Luke Ayling D (Out), Joe Gelhardt F (Probable), Stuart Dallas D (Out), Mateusz Bogusz F (Out).
Chelsea: N’Golo Kante M (Out), Mateo Kovacic M (Out), Armando Broja F (Out), Christian Pulisic F (Doubtful), Marcos Alonso D (Out).
Leeds vs Chelsea predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
After staving off relegation over the final weeks of the season, Jesse Marsch has won the support of the fans as the manager who replaced the legendary Marcelo Bielsa. The offseason saw the departure of star players Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, and many wondered if the team would be able to replace them and remain in the Premier League.
Two matches in, those questions have gone for the moment. Americans Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson have helped fill the gaps left behind, with the latter opening his account with a goal in their season-opening 2-1 win over Wolves at home.
Last weekend, Leeds looked in total control at St. Mary’s Stadium before conceding two second-half goals in a nine-minute span to cancel out a pair of goals from Rodrigo.
The Spanish forward has now scored three of Leeds’ four goals on the campaign, and they will need his form to continue with striker Patrick Bamford once again confined to the bench after yet another injury. With no out-and-out striker behind him, Marsch is holding him out after he came off with a muscle injury before halftime against Southampton.
It may not matter if Tuchel’s one-match ban is delayed if can’t figure out how to get his forwards more involved. Through two matches, Chelsea’s only goal from open play has come from wing-back Reece James, with the other two coming from a spot kick and a corner routine.
New centerback Kalidou Koulibaly’s goal against Spurs last weekend was taken with more skill and technique than anything a Chelsea forward has shown this season.
KALIDOU KOULIBALY SCORES HIS FIRST GOAL FOR CHELSEA ????
— CBS Sports Golazo ?? (@CBSSportsGolazo) August 14, 2022
And what a goal it was ????
(?????: @NBCSportsSoccer) pic.twitter.com/XkCKY84Yh5
Tuchel is also facing a bit of a midfield crisis, one that caused them to drop points at times last season. Both N’Golo Kante and Mateo Kovacic will be absent from the match on Sunday due to a hamstring injury and a knee injury, respectively. This will leave them without a true ball-winner in the middle of the park, something Kante did exceptionally against Tottenham. It also means Jorginho will have to focus more on tracking back than distributing.
Chelsea are prohibitive favorites with the books, and I think they win but would not risk the juice required. That said, I do think there’s value with Leeds double-chance.
Chelsea’s opening match away to Everton saw them need a penalty to get on the scoresheet, and Leeds are better than Everton. One could argue that their squad that day was better than the one they will field on Sunday, as Kante started in midfield.
While Raheem Sterling’s pace could cause them fits at the back, Leeds have shown they can defend in numbers under Marsch and eke out a result when necessary by hitting on the counter.
If you’re wanting to play a match result, the double chance is your best shot at getting a profit without having to risk a ton to do so.
Prediction: Leeds win/draw double chance (+165 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The total in this one feels a bit tricky, in large part due to Chelsea’s struggles in attack. However, they did manage to find the back of the net twice against a Spurs side that defends better than Leeds typically does.
There’s also the matter of Bamford being out for Leeds, and although he’s yet to score this campaign, his replacement would likely be winger Daniel James, which would change how they play a bit. Luis Sinesstera could also deputize.
That said, Leeds don’t like to park the bus — they like to get out and run. Chelsea will likely try to prevent Aaronson and Rodrigo from getting on the ball as they did last week with Kane and Heung-Min Son, which is where a false nine could come in handy.
Chelsea’s interchanging forwards will likely also cause issues for Leeds the way Southampton did in the second half last weekend.
You’re more likely to see more than two goals than not, but I’d try to avoid the juice of the Over 2.5 goals.
Instead, take the Asian handicap of 2.75 and get a half push if only three are scored and a full win if four or more find the back of the net.
Prediction: Over 2.75 Asian handicap (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Chelsea kept a clean sheet in their opener, but anybody who watched that match knows they were fortunate to do so. Everton had eight shots in the match, putting four on target, and should have scored at least once if not twice. Meanwhile, Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet in either of their outings so far.
Both of these teams like to press and win back the ball when they’ve lost it, which often leads to odd-man rushes and easier goal-scoring opportunities. I expect this match to be wide open with plenty of chances, and neither side has shown yet this season that they’re very capable of keeping the other off the scoresheet.
Your best bet is that neither will do so yet again on Sunday.
Pick: Both teams to score (-134 at bet365)
