Leeds vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Salah Continues to Torch The Whites

It’s now or never for Liverpool’s hopes of European qualification as they face an equally desperate Leeds team at Elland Road on Monday.

The Reds will start the day in eighth place and are winless in their past five games in all competitions, though there were some encouraging signs in last weekend’s resilient 2-2 draw against Arsenal.

At the other end of the table, every point is precious for Leeds in a relegation battle that could go right to the wire. Despite an embarrassing 5-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace last time out, Javi Gracia’s men are still just clear of the drop zone.

With both teams’ seasons hanging in the balance, our Leeds vs Liverpool picks and predictions take a closer look at this April 17 matchup.

Leeds vs Liverpool best odds

Leeds vs Liverpool picks and predictions

During his years as one of the Premier League’s most dynamic strikers, Mohamed Salah has tormented the majority of top-flight defenses, but he’s taken a particular liking to Leeds.

Salah has scored in four of the past five meetings, but that stat alone doesn’t do justice to his prolific outings against Leeds, as those games include a double at Anfield last season and a hat-trick in 2020.

Overall, this season has been a disappointment for Salah by his own high standards, with Liverpool struggling to recreate the magic in the final third that brought silverware domestically and in Europe in prior years. A tally of 13 goals in 29 league appearances is a drop-off for a player who has routinely reached the 20-goal mark over the past five seasons.

Nonetheless, Salah was on target against Arsenal last weekend (while also missing a penalty) to make it five goals in his last six Premier League games. He's also more than capable of exploiting the kind of gaping holes that Leeds presented to the Palace attack in a shocking second-half defensive performance last Sunday.

The hosts have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five outings, and I’m betting on Salah to take full advantage.

My best bet: Mohamed Salah to score anytime (+125 at FanDuel)

Leeds vs Liverpool side analysis

After Leeds’ heavy defeat last weekend, the oddsmakers don’t have a lot of faith in the hosts turning things around here. Liverpool arrive as big favorites for Monday's contest, with a chance to cash in against a fragile Leeds team who’ve conceded 14 goals in their past five outings.

However, the Reds have fallen flat on their travels repeatedly this season, with just three wins from their 15 away games in the league. It’s no sure thing that the visitors will find top gear and replicate the type of performance that swept aside Manchester United 7-0 on home turf last month.

Back in October, Leeds stunned Jurgen Klopp’s men at Anfield, taking all three points thanks to a last-gasp winner from Crysencio Summerville. Liverpool held 69% of possession time that day, and there’s every reason to expect a similar share percentage in this one. 

"You can't qualify for the Champions League if you play as inconsistently as we do at the moment," Klopp said after that loss.

As it turns out, even the Europa League may be beyond the Reds.

Weekend losses for the bottom three — Southampton, Everton, and Leicester — have taken some of the pressure off Leeds here, but it’s also a big opportunity to put more distance between themselves and the drop zone. If they play like they did in crucial wins over Nottingham Forest and Wolves in the past month, they have a shot.

Leeds vs Liverpool Over/Under analysis

The attack seems to be the best form of defense for both of these teams, particularly a Leeds side who’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven games. The hosts’ goals-against tally has now ballooned to 54.

The recent numbers for this fixture suggest plenty of scoring chances too. The past three meetings have all served up at least three goals, including a 6-0 Liverpool win last February and a 2020 clash at Anfield that finished 4-3.

As I’ve flagged above, Salah has feasted against Leeds over the past few years, and the visitors have more options in attack as well. I like the look of the BTTS odds in what should be an open contest, plus the Reds’ comeback from a two-goal deficit against Arsenal last time out featured some of their best soccer since thrashing United.

The only slight hesitation in picking another end-to-end thriller is the importance of this game for both teams. That could prompt a more cautious approach (especially for the hosts), as Leeds would surely view a point as a good result.

Leeds vs Liverpool game info

Leeds vs Liverpool key injuries

Leeds: Stuart Dallas CM (Out), Tyler Adams CM (Out).
Liverpool: Luis Diaz FWR (Probable), Naby Keita CM (Out), Stefan Bajcetic CM (Out).

Leeds vs Liverpool recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Leeds	L-L-D-L-D
Liverpool	W-W-L-D-L

Leeds vs Liverpool weather

The weather forecast calls for cool and dry conditions at Elland Road, with a light breeze and temperatures dipping into the low 50s at kick-off.

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