Old Trafford will play host to the Premier League’s curtain raiser for the 2024-25 campaign as Manchester United welcomes Fulham today.
The Cottagers hope the departure of Joao Palhinha won’t be too much to overcome, as Marco Silva hopes to lead his side to victory at Old Trafford for the second season in a row.
My Manchester United vs Fulham predictions for Friday, August 16, explain why the loss of Palhinha plays in your betting favor.
EPL predictions for Manchester United vs Fulham
My best bet:
Manchester United Over 17.5 shots (-128 at Betano)
My analysis
Fulham conceded just 13.55 shots per match last season, which put them ninth among all teams in the Premier League. They did so thanks to the outstanding ball-winning ability of Palhinha, who sits in the 99th percentile across Europe’s top leagues in tackles per 90 minutes over the past calendar year.
Palhinha is now an employee of Bayern Munich, and Fulham will hope to repeat their feat of a season ago as they won without him at Old Trafford. In doing so, they’ll also likely face a barrage of shots as they did in that match, and I’m betting on that happening again.
Fulham’s xGA on the road last season was 35.1 across 19 fixtures, putting them in the bottom half of the league. They conceded more shots per match, more touches in the final third, and more touches inside the penalty area than they did at Craven Cottage.
Manchester United attempted the sixth-most shots in the league in 2023-24 and took 21 in the 2-1 defeat at home to Fulham in February. That was nearly double their shot total at Craven Cottage, in which they were out-shot 18-12 by Fulham.
Palhinha was involved in that match and made five tackles, recovered the ball seven times, and prevented multiple counterattacks. While they hope Emile Smith Rowe can become a force in their midfield, the club’s record signing from Arsenal isn’t much of a threat in terms of defensive activity.
Erik ten Hag’s side performed much better down the stretch last season after he switched to a 4-2-2-2 formation, which he utilized again on Saturday in the Community Shield. The Red Devils looked solid against Manchester City and arguably should have won, as they had twice as high an xG mark.
While they attempted just eight shots, they’re going to enjoy more of the ball here and will be looking to get off to a strong start in front of their home fans. 18 shots should be the floor for them as Fulham looks to adjust without its midfield rock.
Manchester United vs Fulham same-game parlay (SGP)
Manchester United Over 17.5 shots
Over 2.5 goals
Bernd Leno 4+ saves
Andre Onana 3+ saves
Manchester United will be without multiple defenders as the injury bug once again has decimated their backline. New signings Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui could debut, or ten Hag could go with a few banged-up players. Either way, it’ll lead to opportunities for Fulham to score, which should help drive up the final tally.
Fulham goalkeepers made 133 saves last season. Only six clubs had more stops on the campaign, one of which was Manchester United. Andre Onana must have felt he was in front of a firing squad as he stopped 146 shots while facing the second-most attempts in the league.
Five of those saves came against Fulham, including three in the February defeat at home. With the injury concerns in front of him I’d expect he’ll be called upon again.
Meanwhile, Leno will be tested at the other end. He made four saves at home in November and then seven at Old Trafford. It only makes sense he’ll get four or more here if we’re banking on Man United to reach their shot total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Manchester United vs Fulham odds
Manchester United vs Fulham live odds
Manchester United vs Fulham opening odds
- Moneyline: Manchester United -163 | Fulham +400
- Draw: +300
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (+163)
Manchester United vs Fulham side and Over/Under analysis
- Fulham are overwhelming underdogs, priced at +425 to win on the 3-way line. Man United are -175, while the draw is priced at +340.
- Manchester United have won 24 of the 34 Premier League fixtures between the two sides, losing just four times. But the away team has won three of the last four.
- The Over for the 2.5 goal line is heavily juiced, as is the Under for the 3.5 total. Over 3.0 on the Asian total market is favored at -125.
Manchester United vs Fulham game info
| Location: | Old Trafford, Manchester, England |
| Date: | Friday, 8-16-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | Pleasant and dry, with temps in the low 60s and light winds. |
 recent EPL form |
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 recent EPL form |
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Manchester United vs Fulham key injuries
Manchester United: Rasmus Hojlund F (Out), Luke Shaw D (Out), Harry Maguire D (Doubtful), Jonny Evans D (Doubtful), Tyrell Malacia D (Out), Leny Yoro D (Out), Victor Lindelof D (Doubtful).
Fulham: Jorge Cuenca D (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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