Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Picks and Predictions: A Stumbling Block For Messi's Miami

It’ll be an electric atmosphere on Tuesday night when the Philadelphia Union play host to Inter Miami in the Leagues Cup semifinal.  

Everyone’s focus is on Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, and the Union will be fine with that. They sit third in the MLS Eastern Conference and have been formidable at home, losing just once in their last 28 at Subaru Park. They’ve won five of their last seven matches at home in regulation, and they’ll be looking to extend that run in front of what is expected to be a record crowd.

The attention has rightly been on Messi because he’s been delivering since his arrival. But this will be just his second match away from DRV PNK Stadium, and his first road trip required him to pull out late heroics to keep Inter Miami in the tournament. It may take exactly that once more to move them into the final. 

With automatic qualification to the CONCACAF Champions Cup on the line, both teams will be desperate to reach the final. See who your best bet is in our Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 15. 

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami best odds

Philadelphia Union		Inter Miami
+200	Moneyline	+115
+280	Draw	+280
Over 2.5 (-200)	Total	Under 2.5 (+150)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 15, 2023.

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami picks and predictions

Messi and company have been a wrecking ball, scoring the most goals in the tournament and rolling over teams and winning squeakers, finding ways to get the job done no matter the situation.

Their 4-0 win over Charlotte in the last round was a thorough beatdown. While they had the same number of shots and corners at Charlotte, they had six big chances to just one for their opponents and never looked to be threatened. 

But their only trip away from home was a rough one. After an early goal from Messi gave them the lead, Dallas scored twice before halftime and twice after to take a 4-2 lead. It took two late goals — including another from Messi — to force penalties and Miami were able to exit victorious. 

But Dallas isn’t a great team. They’re eighth in the Western Conference and have been inconsistent all season. Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the East and showed it through their play.

Philadelphia is a much better foe, and will by far be the best side Inter Miami have faced. More importantly, they’re a cohesive unit built to take advantage of Miami’s weaknesses and match up with their strengths.

The Union typically employ a 3-5-2 formation with Daniel Gazdag typically pulling the strings as the playmaker. Gazdag has had an MVP-level season but missed the last match with an injury. However, manager Jim Curtin has said he’ll be involved. He’s the kind of player who can cause real problems for Inter Miami’s leaky defense. 

Kai Wagner can take advantage of Miami, pushing their fullbacks forward. He’s one of the best wing-backs in MLS, and the space behind Deandre Yedlin has been exploited time and again during this tournament.

Messi and his pals are going to be a difficult group to stop, and they’re going to get their chances, but Philadelphia has a backline with plenty of speed, which will negate some of Miami’s threat going forward. They’re also adept at maintaining possession, which will help limit Miami’s chances. 

The Union have a terrific keeper in Andre Blake, who was missing the only time Philly lost in their last 28 matches at home, and they’re going to have an atmosphere that Miami simply haven’t seen in this tournament. 

That’s why we’re recommending taking the value available with Philly getting plus-odds to advance. The Union thrashed Miami 4-1 at home earlier this season, and while this is obviously a better side visiting this time around, they still have many of the same defensive flaws. Philly will exploit them as they find a way to make the final. 

My best bet: Philadelphia Union to advance (+110 at DraftKings)

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Same-Game Parlay

Philadelphia Union to qualify (+100)

Lionel Messi Over 1.5 shots on target (-334)

Both teams to score — Yes (-225)

Daniel Gazdag Over 0.5 shots on target (-250)

+375 at bet365

In addition to the Union qualifying, we’ve identified three solid props with which to build a great same-game parlay over at bet365.

Messi has put at least two shots on goal in every match so far, including his debut off the bench against Cruz Azul. Given his talent and the fact he’s taking free kicks, it’s foolish to think he won’t reach that mark again tonight. 

While Philly has been unbeatable at home, they aren’t necessarily unbreakable. They’ve managed just one clean sheet during their last seven home fixtures, and they aren’t keeping Miami off the scoresheet. Meanwhile, Miami’s porous defense has only kept lowly Charlotte from scoring. Take both teams to score.

Gazdag is having a phenomenal season with nine goals and nine assists. With striker Julian Carranza’s hamstring injury against Queretaro likely relegating him to the bench from the start, Gazdag will need to step up a bit more in attack. That increases his odds of putting an effort on goal to round out our same-game parlay.  

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Inter Miami are the favorites on the 3-way moneyline, getting anywhere from +110 to +125, while Philadelphia are the underdogs with a price up to +200. The draw is the least expected outcome per the public, paying out at +280.

Philadelphia struggled a bit against Queretaro but were missing key players, including Gazdag. That said, they’re nearly unbeatable at home and beat New York Red Bulls and DC United during their run, and have a system that can exploit Miami’s defensive weaknesses. That’s why we’re taking them to advance, and why I’d avoid playing anything on the 3-way line.

There’s not much value in the standard total market, with the Over 2.5 sitting at nearly -200 and the Under at +140. Four of Philadelphia’s last six matches have gone Over that mark, while Miami’s last eight have all flown past. In fact, there have been at least four goals in every match Messi has started.

That’s why I’d recommend going with the Over 3.5 instead. It’s hard to see anybody holding Miami to just one goal, which means Philadelphia is going to have to score at least two of their own. At +122, it’s not the greatest value but I’ll happily take that at plus odds given the way things are likely to play out. 

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami game info

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami key injuries

Philadelphia Union: Alejandro Bedoya M (Probable), Julian Carranza F (Probable), Daniel Gazdag M (Probable).
Inter Miami: Jean Mota M (Out), Corentin Jean F (Out), Franco Negri D (Out).

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