Spain vs Sweden Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Doubt Sweden at Your Own Risk

One of the 2023 Women’s World Cup finalists will be decided in Auckland on Tuesday when Spain and Sweden face off in the semifinals.

After failing to qualify for the first six tournaments, Spain have blown past their previous best finish by reaching the final four of the competition. La Roja now stand on the doorstep of history following a 2-1 win over the Netherlands in extra time.

Their opponents have slain some giants so far, as Sweden knocked out the United States and Japan in successive matches. They’ve reached this stage four times before but have won just once, and will be hopeful to avoid falling at the same place as in 2019. 

Will Spain dominate the match the way they’ve dominated possession, or will Sweden’s stifling defense take down another big name? We discuss that and more in our Spain vs. Sweden picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 15. 

Spain vs Sweden odds

Spain		Sweden
+105	Moneyline	+280
+200	Draw	+200
Over 2.5 (+137)	Total	Under 2.5 (-188)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on August 14, 2023.

Spain vs Sweden picks and predictions

When Sweden and Japan met in the quarterfinals, I took Japan to win. I thought their attack was going to be too much for the Blagult to handle, and I expected their defense would be breached.

I’m not making that same mistake again. That’s why our best bet is for Sweden to advance with a price that is far too high going into the match. 

This Swedish defense has been outstanding during the entire tournament. Their 0.4 goals conceded per match ranks fifth among all teams, having conceded just twice while keeping three clean sheets. They outshot Japan 15-11, as their physicality disrupted the Japanese attack and prevented them from getting into their usual rhythm.

That’s going to be pivotal when they encounter Spain. The 62% possession La Roja enjoyed against the Dutch saw them outshoot the Netherlands 28-10, but only eight of those efforts were on target. And that was over 120 minutes, as Spain needed a goal in the 111th minute to advance.

But it took Spain 81 minutes to break through, a goal which came via penalty. And while Spain have scored 15 goals in the tournament, leading all nations, and eight of those came in the group stage against Costa Rica and Zambia with five more coming against Switzerland.

Not only must Spain contend with the stoutest defense they’ve faced in the tournament, they’ve got to deal with Zecira Musovic. The Swedish keeper has been outstanding, and she once again came to the rescue against Japan. While she was fortunate Japan put a penalty against the bar, she kept Sweden in the match multiple times in the second half. 

But the biggest reason I’m backing Sweden to advance is their tactical adaptability. Against Japan, they moved the versatile Fridolina Rolfo around defensively, and she was able to disrupt Japan’s best playmaker. This enabled them to control play in midfield, while the speedy Johanna Kaneryd applied pressure with runs in behind.

Japan torched Spain for four goals by doing just that, as they capitalized on forced turnovers and runs behind the Spanish defense. Now they get to field an identical lineup to what they’ve had the last two matches, while Spain is dealing with a key injury in their back line.

That’s the recipe for success for Sweden, and they’ll do enough to claim a spot in the final. Take the much more experienced side to go through whether it takes, 90 minutes or extra time.  

My best bet: Sweden to advance (+156 at FanDuel)

Spain vs Sweden same-game parlay

Sweden to advance (+156)

Sweden Under 4.5 corners (-200)

1st half Under 1.5 goals (-360)

Spain 3+ shots on goal (-500)

+561 at FanDuel

FanDuel has the best pricing for our same-game parlay, and this one’s set to pay out quite nicely. 

Part of why we are backing Sweden to qualify is their ability to disrupt Spain’s possession-based style of play. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to be pouring numbers forward. As such, I doubt they’re going to rack up a high number of corners. Sweden have attempted three corners in each of their last two matches, and I don’t see them taking many more than that in this outing. We’ll cap it at four for the parlay.

Sweden opened the scoring against Japan with a goal just past a half hour, just the fourth goal that has been scored before halftime in their five matches thus far. The previous three goals all came in a 5-0 rout of Italy. 

Meanwhile, it took Spain well into the match to break through the Dutch defense, and I don’t see them having more success against Sweden. As such, we’ll go with the first half having just one goal or less.

Spain are going to get their shots, even with the Swedish side disrupting their flow. Japan limited them to just two efforts on goal, but they’ve had at least eight shots on target in every other match including against the Netherlands. 

Sweden have allowed at least two shots on goal in each match, with Japan getting three through and the United States getting 11 on frame. Spain like to shoot early and often, and I don’t see them failing to get at least three shots through.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spain vs Sweden spread and Over/Under analysis

Spain are favored to win in regulation with a price ranging from +105 to +116, while Sweden are priced as high as +290 to win within 90 minutes. The draw is the second-favored outcome with a price as high as +230.

Given I believe Sweden will get the job done, I’ll be staying away from the 3-way line. However, there’s solid value in both the draw and the Sweden victory. Rather than playing the double-chance, which is juiced to the -140 range, you’re better off going with the Asian handicap of Sweden +0.25 (+100) if you want to get a wager in on regulation.

The Total of 2.5 sees a large amount of money on the Under, with the price at -180 or longer. The Over is paying as high as +150, but that’s not enough for me to play it. 

I could see this match being 0-0 after 90 minutes just as much as I could see a 2-1 final score, and there are simply too many variables on both sides to risk it. I’d rather wait to get something live or play the first half Under 0.5 at +150 instead. 

Spain vs Sweden game info

Spain vs Sweden key injuries

Spain: Aitana Bonmati M (Probable), Laia Codina D (Doubtful).
Sweden: None.

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