If you weren’t aware St. Kitts and Nevis was an actual place, nor that they had a national soccer team, don't feel alone. However, both are true, and they will compete Wednesday night in the CONCACAF Gold Cup against the United States, with the hopes of pulling off a huge upset.
The Sugar Boyz will look to get their first result against a non-Caribbean CONCACAF team in 12 years after falling 3-0 to Trinidad and Tobago in their group stage opener. For the Yanks, they’ll be seeking to get past a 1-1 draw with Jamaica that left them looking outclassed.
USA know they need to set the tone early to make up for the draw, and I believe they'll do just that. Find out more in my St. Kitts and Nevis vs. USA betting picks.
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA best odds
| St. Kitts and Nevis | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5,000 | Moneyline | -6,600 |
| +2,200 | Draw | +2,200 |
| Over 2.5 (-1,200) | Total | Under 2.5 (+700) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 28, 2023.
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA picks and predictions
Given the overwhelming odds against St. Kitts and Nevis in this match, finding a line that didn’t require giving up an arm and half a leg for juice was difficult. In fact, books are either not offering it at all, or are offering such limited options there’s nothing worth playing. But fear not, as I did some digging and came up with a solid best bet for you that won’t require you to mortgage your home to win a few dollars.
St. Kitts and Nevis allowed three shots in the opening 15 minutes in their loss to Trinidad and Tobago. Just one of those efforts was on target — saved in the 14th minute — as the Sugar Boyz bunkered down and defended in a group. They kept it level until late in the first half, when they fell behind in the 43rd minute before conceding twice more after the break.
However, Trinidad and Tobago aren’t a side that have typically scored early on teams, and they don’t have the speed and size that the Americans do. They also lacked one thing the USMNT will have in abundance on Wednesday night — a need to score early and often.
Goal differential is likely going to be important to determine who wins the group, and this is the best opportunity for the Yanks to run up the score on someone.
The USMNT found the back of the net inside five minutes in the Gold Cup final last weekend, and while the roster is obviously watered down compared to that one, you need only look back to the last time they played a team this overmatched — a 7-1 slapping of Grenada back in March. Granted Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie started in that match, but it was a team loaded with MLS talent as well.
Jamaica dominated the midfield on Saturday night for large stretches, preventing the Yanks from building up. That won’t be the case on Wednesday against a St. Kitts side that will sit back and try to defend. Their problem is their back line lacks the height of what the USMNT will throw at them on set pieces, and they’ll be exposed if they get out of position.
The Americans need not just a win, but a big one. After nearly losing to Jamaica, I expect the USMNT to come flying out of the gates with intensity and urgency, and find a way to score inside the opening 16 minutes. That’s your best path to cashing a bet in a match with very few viable betting options.
My best bet: USA to score inside 16 minutes (-120 at bet365)
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St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA side analysis
There’s not much to analyze on the moneyline, unless you expect the near impossible. USA are priced on the 3-way line anywhere between -3500 to -8000, and there’s nothing you can even parlay that kind of price with to make it worth using. St. Kitts and Nevis are priced up to +6500, with a draw paying +2800.
The last time St. Kitts and Nevis played a North American side was a 1-0 defeat to Canada in 2018. Success in the past few years has usually come against fellow Caribbean nations, but solid teams like Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and El Salvador have regularly defeated them.
The Americans drew 1-1 with Jamaica to run their unbeaten streak to seven matches, and they’ve now scored in 43 of 44 Gold Cup group stage matches in their history. And in the last 39 Gold Cup matches where they’ve scored two or more goals — as they’re expected to do on Wednesday night — they’ve won every single time.
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA Over/Under analysis
The standard 2.5 total is out the window for this match, as most books are hedging on a blowout win for the Americans. The books are expecting such a big blowout that you can get St. Kitts and Nevis at +170 simply to score once.
The total of 4.5 American team goals is split fairly evenly at most books between the Over and the Under. That’s the way to go, personally, if you’re looking to avoid the 4.5 match total being juiced to -165 for the Over.
That said, don’t simply assume the Over is a shoo-in for the Americans. Even at their worst, St. Kitts and Nevis haven't typically been outscored by that many. In fact, only El Salvador have managed as many as four goals against them in their last 28 matches. You have to go back to 2017, when Armenia beat them 5-0, to find a scoreline that would cover the USA's team total in this one.
The USMNT put seven past Grenada earlier this year with a team containing multiple European-based players, but that’s the only time in the last 15 matches their match total has even gotten to five goals. You have to go all the way back to June of last year to find the last instance, a 5-0 win over…you guessed it, Grenada again. Their last 19 matches have seen four or fewer goals, and only three times in their last 37 matches have they managed five
I’ll be avoiding the total in this match, as I could see them putting a boatload into the net just as easily as I could see them squandering chances without the big guns in the lineup.
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA game info
| Location: | City Park, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 |
| Time: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TUDN, Unimas |
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA key injuries
St. Kitts and Nevis: No injuries to report.
USA: No injuries to report.
St. Kitts and Nevis vs USA weather
Wednesday night’s match will be a warm one, with temperatures in the mid 80s at kickoff. There will not be any rain in the forecast, and winds will be light with gusts up to 15 mph.
