USA vs Honduras World Cup Qualifying Picks and Predictions: USMNT Get Back on Track

The USMNT will look to rebound from a humbling loss in Canada on Sunday as they get set to host Honduras in CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying play.

Despite the USA's loss to Canada, they remain second in qualifying, level on points with Mexico but ahead on goal difference. As is always the case in a complicated CONCACAF qualifying campaign, the most important task is always to win on home soil and so, the focus shifts to Honduras.

Here are our free soccer betting picks and predictions for USA vs. Honduras, with kickoff set for February 2.

USA vs Honduras game info

• Location: Allianz Field, St. Paul, MN
• Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2022
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1, Univision

USA vs Honduras betting tips

• Prediction: USA (-575)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Ricardo Pepi anytime goal (+100)

Read on for complete analysis

USA vs Honduras match odds

USA: -575
Honduras: +1,200
Draw: +600

Total: 2.5
Over: -115
Under: -110

USA vs Honduras betting preview

Weather

There will be no reprieve from the cold for the USMNT, following games in Columbus and Hamilton, with St. Paul playing host Wednesday. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 5 degrees Fahrenheit, with winds around 10 miles per hour.

Injuries

USA: Tyler Adams CM (Out), Chris Richards CB (Out).
Honduras: No injuries to report.

USA vs Honduras predictions

Side analysis

If the USMNT need any help keeping things in perspective following their loss to Canada, then they simply need to look across at Honduras.

The 2014 World Cup qualifiers have seen the shape of their program go from worrisome to outright disarray over the last week. A loss at home to Canada was followed up with another home defeat, this time to El Salvador, who were second-bottom ahead of that match. 

Those results pushed a losing streak to six games but it also ended Honduras' qualifying campaign, as they sit 14 points back of fourth, and the inter-continental playoff spot that comes with it, with four games to play. Oh, and Honduran manager Hernan Dario Gomez appeared to walk all the way up to the line of resignation before backtracking, saying they were "at a stage where this job is unpleasant. We’re in a situation where there’s no respect or credibility."

Well, tough news, because the next stage for Honduras is to face the USMNT on American turf. Even amid disarray of their own, the U.S. rarely drop points against CONCACAF opponents at home. They did so only twice in the previous qualifying cycle, in which they came up short of qualification, and have again only dropped points twice at home in this cycle (both in draws) while winning four home games on the bounce. 

Faith in manager Gregg Berhalter is, perhaps rightly, at an all-time low, their captain and arguably best player Tyler Adams is now injured, and the lack of a cutting edge has haunted the USMNT in big games lately. Yet, there should be no fear of dropped points in St. Paul on Wednesday. The U.S. are taking casual glances at the panic button, Honduras have smashed it with fury.

Prediction: USA (-575)

Over/Under analysis

At some point, faith in Honduras' attackers is no more, and we're at that point. Since the start of qualifying, smart people have expressed belief in the Honduran attack, and rightfully so, with Alberth Elis and Romell Quioto capable of starting for any team in the region.

Yet here we are, 10 games in, and Honduras have scored five goals, been shutout six times, and have received just two goals from the pair of Elis and Quioto. The idea of Honduras' attack and what we've seen in 900+ minutes are two very different things, and that's even before we've seen them with nothing to play for.

If Elis and Quioto couldn't muster moments of brilliance with a trip to the World Cup on the line, what do we expect of them with that mission over? Elis is facing a long flight back to France after playing in freezing St. Paul on Wednesday, while Quioto will resume his offseason as a member of CF Montreal. 

All that is to say, we're counting on a third successive goalless 90 minutes from Honduras on Wednesday. So, the attention turns to the USMNT and an attack that's been often toothless during this qualifying campaign. 

For a second straight game against Canada, the USMNT were allowed plenty of time on the ball but rarely threatened with it, holding possession in the center of the park for less than 25 percent of their total possession. It's been a similar situation throughout qualifying, with the quantity of U.S. chances not lining up with the quality of chances. Just last week, the USA controlled the game in freezing cold Columbus against El Salvador but created 2.98 expected goals off 17 shots. The xG is high but the number of shots tells us the chances they created weren't exactly threatening. 

Within this window, we have 180 minutes' worth of evidence of the USMNT not playing free-flowing, beautiful soccer in the bitter cold. They couldn't summon that extra level in the cold of Hamilton despite chasing a 1-0 deficit for the majority of the game, so they certainly won't in St. Paul where good will be good enough against a poor Honduras side. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 (-110)

Best bet

All teenage striker Ricardo Pepi has done since bursting onto the scene in 2021, scoring 13 goals for FC Dallas in MLS and another three in five starts for the USMNT, is make a $20-million transfer to Augsburg of the Bundesliga.

Yet, Pepi was left out of the starting lineup for the United States against El Salvador on Thursday and didn't make a substitute appearance despite the match, a 1-0 win, never really being put away. No problem, saving the teenage sensation for a massive game against Canada, I'm sure.

Well, Pepi was again left out of the starting lineup vs. Canada, this time in favor of the tireless Gyasi Zardes, who last scored in World Cup Qualifying in November of 2015. Pepi replaced Zardes with just over 20 minutes left with the U.S. chasing a goal but the 18-year-old never had a chance to make any sort of impact. 

With pressure mounting on Berhalter and consecutive underwhelming performances in attack, the USMNT manager will surely turn to Pepi from the first whistle this time around. Assuming we're proven correct, his even money to score should be good value. Pepi has averaged 0.6 goals per 90 in World Cup Qualifiers but is currently riding a goalless drought of just under 300 minutes. He scored one and assisted another in the first meeting between these two and he should mark his return to the starting 11 with a goal on Wednesday. 

Pick: Ricardo Pepi anytime goal (+100)

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