France vs Australia World Cup Picks and Predictions: Mbappe Leads Off World Cup Defense

A star-studded French squad is attempting to become the first nation to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962 – and that quest begins on Tuesday against Australia.

Though key injuries have forced Didier Deschamps to reshuffle his plans, Les Bleus have plenty of aces up their sleeve and are set to unleash Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud on World Cup defenses.

For Australia, this is a daunting first test in Group D, but Graham Arnold’s men will hope that a compact, gritty game plan can stifle a France team that may need a few games to find top gear.

Check out our free World Cup picks and predictions for France vs Australia below.

France vs Australia odds

France vs Australia picks and predictions

Amid a flurry of recent injury headaches, the mood in the French camp must at least improve when they ponder what Mbappe will serve up in Qatar as his encore to a breakout World Cup in 2018. 

Mbappe announced himself to a global audience four years ago with some electric performances, and he hasn’t slowed down since. With key contributions in France’s run to UEFA Nations League glory last year and a red-hot start to this season with PSG (12 goals in 13 league games), there’s no scarier prospect for defenders than Mbappe in full flight with the ball at his feet.

Make no mistake, he is the undisputed focal point of this French team. With significant changes in midfield to address injuries to N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba, France will be counting on Mbappe’s movement and eye for goal to smooth that transition. There’s less margin for error and the team’s superstars have to perform.

A matchup with a shaky Australian defense should get Mbappe off to a flier, with Aussie centerbacks Harry Souttar and Kye Rowles both just returning from injury layoffs. If Arnold decides that either defender is too short on match practice, the backup options are less than convincing.

Playing the ball out from the back will come with serious risk for the Australian defense on Tuesday – with the French midfield pressing and ready to release Mbappe at any moment. He’s also one of Deschamps’ top options for penalty-taking duties. 

I expect Les Bleus to take control of this game early on and outmaneuver the Aussies’ defensive tactics, with Mbappe among the scorers for the World Cup holders.

My best bet: Kylian Mbappe to score + France to win (+110 at bet365)

France vs Australia side analysis

France enters their Group D opener as clear favorites to bag three points — and that’s hardly a surprise as defending champions. Look for Mbappe and Olivier Giroud to stretch an overmatched Aussie back four with their well-meshed partnership, feeding off Antoine Griezmann, who has had a rollercoaster year but is still elite at finding space behind the front two and picking the right pass.

If the Aussies can weather the early storm, this could yet be a cagey contest, but there’s so little threat for Australia in the final third — and it’s tough to see Arnold’s side generating enough chances with a lone striker up against the French back three. Once a 0-0 is off the table, there’s no obvious countermove for the Aussies.

Among the many subplots, keep an eye on the midfield battle. With Aaron Mooy and Jackson Irvine, Australia has the physicality and stamina to challenge France, plus Deschamps has decisions to make in midfield, with Aurelian Tchouameni’s performances for Real Madrid likely to earn him one of the open spots.

Given the French’s superior talent, you’ll find more interesting odds in predicting the margin of victory – check out France -1.5 goals or -2 goals.

France vs Australia Over/Under analysis

As I’ve covered above, this could quickly become an attack vs. defense contest, with France dominating possession and creating a hatful of scoring chances, but much depends on the opening 20 minutes and whether Australia can get any kind of foothold in the game.

It’s simply asking too much to expect the Aussies to stand firm for 90 minutes with so few established stars in their squad, even factoring in their track record for gutsy, team-first displays. If Mbappe, Giroud, and Griezmann are in sync, the scoreline could get lopsided in a hurry. I like the look of the odds for Over 3.5 total goals.

If you’re betting on the Over, don’t count on Australia to do much of that heavy lifting. With a 4-1-4-1 formation, it will be all hands on deck to deny space for the French playmakers.

France vs Australia game info

France vs Australia key injuries

France: Raphael Varane CB (Questionable), Karim Benzema ST (Out), Paul Pogba MF (Out).
Australia: Martin Boyle RW (Doubtful), Harry Souttar CB (Questionable), Kye Rowles CB (Questionable), Mat Ryan GK (Questionable), Ajdin Hrustic CM (Questionable).

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