On and off the pitch, Group D is ready to deliver an emotional World Cup rollercoaster, starting with defending champions France, who will inevitably be in the spotlight. Although World Cup odds have them as heavy favorites to advance, the road to a World Cup repeat is not without challenges for Les Bleus as injuries mount and question marks linger around team chemistry.
Meanwhile, Denmark’s continued rise is bolstered by the incredible story of Christian Eriksen and his return after the near tragedy at Euro 2020. The Danes are unlikely to draw the hype and headlines, but this squad is much closer to “true contender” than “plucky outsider”.
That leaves Australia and Tunisia as Group D underdogs. While both teams are familiar with this tag and the type of disciplined game plan it requires, their managers arrive in Qatar under pressure to perform.
Read on for our World Cup Group D team breakdowns and best bet. Be sure to also check out our free World Cup picks page throughout the tournament so you never miss a pick.
World Cup Group D odds to advance
World Cup Group D team breakdowns
France (Odds to win group: -228)
Few teams have been hit harder by pre-tournament injuries, but any country that can still pair Kylian Mbappe and Karim Benzema in attack are unlikely to get much sympathy. Nonetheless, Les Bleus will have to adapt on the fly, with N’Golo Kante, Paul Pogba and Presnel Kimpembe already ruled out, and Raphael Varane named in the squad but still dealing with a knee injury.
A new-look midfield will be thrown in at the deep end, with youngsters Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni among the candidates to fill in for Kante and Pogba. But this favorable group draw should buy them time to settle in.
The defensive adjustments should be smoother as Didier Deschamps has a number of options to choose from to replace Kimpembe and (potentially) Varane, including Bayern Munich duo Lucas Hernandez and Dayot Upamecano and Arsenal’s William Saliba. Theo Hernandez seems like a lock to start at left wing-back in a 3-4-1-2 formation, and his attacking intent will be key in unlocking stubborn defenses.
In what could be the last ride for Deschamps as national team boss, Les Bleus can’t be thrilled to see Denmark in this group. A talented French squad should still cruise through to the knockout rounds, but keep in mind that the Danes beat them twice in recent UEFA Nations League action. Still, if Mbappe and Benzema — the 2022 Ballon d’Or winner — are in sync, that may not matter.
Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe. He announced himself at the 2018 World Cup with four goals and some electric performances. Four years on, he’s a more complete player, carries greater responsibility, and is a good bet to finish as the tournament’s Golden Boot winner.
Denmark (+250)
Semifinalists at Euro 2020 and comfortable qualifiers for the World Cup, Denmark have clearly outgrown the “dark horse” tag. The Danes breezed through the qualifying stage — winning nine in a row and scoring 30 goals — albeit in a favorable group. They then proved that was no fluke by getting the better of France in UEFA Nations League action, twice.
Though Denmark kept chugging along in Eriksen’s absence, his emotional return raises their ceiling considerably. With anchormen Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Thomas Delaney patrolling the midfield, Eriksen is free to pull the strings in the final third — and his set-piece delivery remains among the best.
At the back, the experienced Simon Kjaer and Kasper Schmeichel lead by example. That pair provides a solid base for the Danes’ 3-4-2-1 formation, and creative coach Kasper Hjulmand is adept at tinkering with his tactics in response to the flow of the game.
For the most part, you know what you’re getting with the composed, well-organized Danes. They’ve been through a lot together, they don’t beat themselves, and this 2022 version layers on more attacking swagger. If 22-year-old Andreas Skov Olsen can replicate his Club Brugge form, there should be plenty of chances for striker Kasper Dolberg.
Player to watch: Joakim Maehle. Look for many of Denmark’s attacks to come down the left wing, where Maehle is a constant threat. With plenty of cover behind him, the Atalanta wing back loves to roam forward and scored five times during the qualifying phase.
Tunisia (+1,600)
Like Australia, Tunisia faces an uphill battle in Group D after a less-than-convincing road to the World Cup. The Eagles of Carthage limped over the finish line, winning their two-legged playoff courtesy of a first-leg own goal.
Their journey to Qatar has been turbulent as well as tense. Former boss Mondher Kebaier was sacked after a sub-par African Cup of Nations performance, with assistant Jalel Kadri taking the reins and steering Tunisia to World Cup qualification.
Watch for Kadri’s men to employ the same cautious approach that got them here — essentially a 4-5-1 formation that relies on a steady defense, a three-man central midfield to shield them, and Wahbi Khazri to provide moments of magic. Young gun Hannibal Mejbri may have to settle for a super-sub role.
But confidence could be fragile in the Tunisia camp after their defensive reputation took a hit in the 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Brazil in a September friendly. That was an ominous sign, with the Eagles of Carthage trailing 4-0 by halftime.
Facing France in the final group fixture could be beneficial depending on how other Group D results fall, but it’s unclear how they will pivot from their defensive game plan if they falls behind in games. All in all, this squad seems unlikely to be the one that gets Tunisia past the World Cup group stage for the first time.
Player to watch: Khazri. The Montpellier playmaker is at the heart of Tunisia’s best moves and rose to the occasion with goals against Belgium and Panama at the last World Cup. He will again be shouldering a heavy burden for a limited attacking side.
Australia (+2,000)
Australia are back at the World Cup for the fifth straight time — but the household names have moved on, leaving behind a squad that looks overmatched in Group D. The Aussies punched their ticket for Qatar the hard way, requiring a penalty shootout against Peru to win their intercontinental playoff, and now need to raise their game in a hurry. Needless to say, expectations are lower than at prior tournaments.
Overall, this feels like a team in transition. Coach Graham Arnold weathered some turbulent times during qualification but may be moving on after the tournament, while the World Cup will be a big step up for many of the squad.
Look for Arnold to lean on the 4-1-4-1 formation that got the Aussies past Peru, with an emphasis on stifling their opponents and looking for scraps on the counter-attack. But it’s hard to see that defensive-minded approach carrying Australia into the knockout rounds given the quality of France and Denmark and the testing Qatari climate.
The experience of goalkeeper Mat Ryan and midfield terrier Aaron Mooy offers some stability to fall back on, but where will the goals come from? The Aussies will lean on Jamie Maclaren and Martin Boyle, with Tom Rogic surprisingly omitted from the squad.
Player to watch: Jackson Irvine. The St. Pauli midfielder has settled into life in the Bundesliga, and the Aussies will be counting on his tireless work rate as they defend in numbers. From the center of midfield, he’ll have license to break forward and ensure the team’s lone striker isn’t too isolated.
Group winner odds courtesy of PointsBet, as of November 15, 2022.
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World Cup Group D best bet
Denmark to win Group D (+250 at PointsBet)
With some of the concerns looming in the French camp, the top spot in Group D is no foregone conclusion. The door is ajar and the Danes are ready to smash through it, especially after such dominant results over the past 12 months — including bragging rights over France.
Boasting team chemistry and togetherness unlike any other in the tournament, Denmark have a golden opportunity to solidify their status as a top-tier contender at this World Cup. All the ingredients are there, from depth and coaching to a solid defense and midfield playmaking, and this group is a favorable way to kick off a deep tournament run. The Danes should be good enough and patient enough to see off both Australia and Tunisia.
The much-hyped Dolberg is perhaps the biggest wildcard. The 25-year-old striker scored three goals at Euro 2020 but must hit the ground running in Qatar as the focal point of the Denmark attack. Plans B and C up front are less convincing, though RB Leipzig’s Yussuf Poulsen is a proven option at this level.
At this price, the Danes are still undervalued as Group D winners, and, with Eriksen back to give the midfield a creative jolt, I like Hjulmand’s men to spring an early surprise by finishing in first place.
