Japan vs Spain World Cup Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Action as Spanish Conquer

The 2022 World Cup continues Thursday for the final Group E matchup between Spain and Japan at 2 p.m. ET.

Spain picked up a 7-0 victory over Costa Rica to open the World Cup, as La Roja secured the goal differential tiebreaker right off the bat. They also played to a 1-1 draw against Germany, setting themselves up for advancement to the knockout stages.

Japan stunned Germany 2-1 in their first World Cup game, but Costa Rica turned the tables in a 1-0 upset on Sunday. So, Japan finds itself tied with Costa Rica in the Group D table, but it is in good shape due to Costa Rica’s terrible goal differential.

Still, this is a very important match, as both teams can use a result, preferably a win, to secure advancement. We’ll discuss in our World Cup betting picks for Spain vs. Japan on Thursday, December 1.

Japan vs Spain odds

Japan vs Spain picks and predictions

Spain enter with Alvaro Morata leading the way with two goals and three points across his two matches, while Ferran Torres has also chipped in with a pair of goals. Dani Olmo has also checked in with a goal and an assist through two games, as Spain have been getting goals from numerous sources.

Spain won’t be able to cruise here despite their giant goal differential, as Costa Rica, Japan,  and Germany each remain alive heading into the final group stage game. There is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that Spain could go from the top of the group to elimination with a big enough loss.

Japan showed that they can be a problem, topping Germany 2-1, but it also showed it can lose focus in a 1-0 loss against Costa Rica. This is a club still in very good shape for advancement, but they cannot stub their toe like last time out.

My favorite wager here is to see both teams get on the board, with Spain to win this one in a higher-scoring affair. In fact, you have a chance to more than double up if Spain wins and both teams score.

My best bet: Spain to win and both teams to score (+225 at bet365)

Japan vs Spain side analysis

I really liked the offense I saw from Spain in the opener against Costa Rica, a team that has racked up eight goals through two matches. And Costa Rica is no pushover, as Japan found out the hard way.

Spain saw Dani Olmo score at 11’ against Costa Rica, before Marco Asensio added to the score at 21’. A penalty kick from Torres at 31’ meant that the rout was on. The good news is that in the second half, Spain didn’t take its foot off the gas. It was the highest score from any team we’ve seen at this World Cup. Spain can get production from so many players, and they’re one of the deepest teams in this tournament.

To show you how lopsided it was, Spain outshot Costa Rica 17-0, including 8-0 in shots on goal. Spain also had an 81.0% rate of possession, truly dominating the play.

As you would expect, Spain had a much bigger test against Germany. They were outshot 12-7, with Spain managing just three shots on goal. They did win the possession battle again — 64.0% to 36.0% — but it couldn’t muster more than a 1-1 draw.

Japan opened with Germany, and went down 1-0 on a penalty kick at 33’. But in the second half of the first game, it was all Japan. Ritsu Doan found the back of the net at 75’, and Takuma Asano added the winner at 83’, and the people were dancing in the streets in Osaka, Tokyo and all points in between.

All of those good feelings were washed away against Costa Rica, however, and confidence is much higher that Spain will be able to get it done in a must-win match. Japan does have the potential to use some of its key players, particularly those who earn a paycheck in the German leagues, to keep it close.

Japan should be able to break through, but Spain has a high-octane offense, and a deep roster. As such, playing Japan +2 (-145 at BetMGM) on the 3-way handicap in regular time is worth a look.

Japan vs Spain Over/Under analysis

Spain hit the Over rather easily in the opener, but Under 2.5 goals hit against Germany. This one should be a little bit more in between. The teams will be desperate, and cannot stay back and simply play safe to grab a boring draw. These teams need offense, and we’ll get it.

Japan has a lot more to play for, and will take some chances. That could lead to some breaks the other way. In this World Cup we have seen a lot of scoreless draws, boring play, and a lack of excitement from some teams. This match will not have any of that. We’ll get at least three goals, and it’s likely we see Spain win by a 2-1 score.

As such, let’s roll with Over 2.5 goals (-145 at BetMGM), but play a half-unit on the total.

Japan vs Spain game info

Japan vs Spain key injuries

Japan: Hiroki Sakai RB (Questionable), Ao Tanaka MF (Questionable).
Spain: Jose Gaya LB (Out), Marcos Llorente MF (Questionable).

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