Mexico vs Poland World Cup Picks and Predictions: Lewandowski's Time to Shine

Group C is one of the trickiest to predict heading into the 2022 World Cup, in large part due to the two teams that will square off today. Mexico and Poland have both underperformed at times over the past year, but they each have enough talent that you could see them both qualify for the knockout stages.

Can Mexico reach the Round of 16 for the eighth consecutive World Cup? Or will this be the tournament where Robert Lewandowski finally shrugs off the concerns of underperforming at major tournaments? We look at those topics and more in our World Cup picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 22. 

Mexico vs Poland odds

Mexico vs Poland picks and predictions

It’s been a rough 2022 for Tata Martino. The Mexico manager has not been a popular figure in the country, with many calling for his job as they’ve had a turbulent stretch following qualification for the World Cup. Mexico have lost four of their last 10 matches, including a defeat to fellow World Cup participant Uruguay and a draw with Ecuador. 

They’ve failed to win any of their last nine matches against teams in the World Cup, dating back to last summer. In those matches, they’ve scored a total of just four goals. They’re creating plenty of chances, they just aren’t converting them.

A big issue for Mexico has been the lack of a goal-scoring threat at the top. Wolves striker Raul Jimenez finally returned on Wednesday after being out for months with an injury and played in the second half of their 2-1 friendly defeat to Sweden. But his fitness is still in question, and nobody knows how long he’ll be able to go or if he can even start.

There’s no question about who scores the goals for Poland. Robert Lewandowski is the player all eyes will be on, especially those of Mexico’s defense. His 76 goals are the most all-time for Poland, and the Barcelona striker is an imposing physical presence who can score with his feet and in the air.

Finding him will be the primary concern for Poland. At the 2018 World Cup, he often cut a lone figure at the top and scored neither of their two goals in the tournament. He was better at Euro 2020, finding the back of the net three different times but it wasn’t enough as they took just one point from three matches. 

Piotr Zielinski will be the man tasked with finding Lewandowski. The Napoli midfielder is in solid form, with six goals and seven assists for his club this season. He will likely find space to operate against Mexico, who were exposed by Sweden mid-week and have continually made mistakes at the back.

Mexico are the more familiar team to many, with some more prominent star names across the pitch, but that doesn’t make them the better side. The loss of Jesus Corona is one that cannot be overlooked. Without a reliable goal-scoring threat, it’s hard for me to see them breaking down a Poland side that performed well in Nations League this summer, where they beat Wales twice and drew against the Netherlands. That’s something Mexico haven’t been able to say for quite a while.

I could see a draw in this match, but I also like Poland to take all three points on their way to moving out of the group stage. That’s why the best bet for this contest is to take Poland to win, with a draw refunding your stake. Look for Lewandowski to punish Mexico’s back line for the poor marking they’ve shown over the past year. If they allow some of the chances they’ve given up to the likes of Sweden on Wednesday, he’s going to feast on their defense. 

My best bet: Poland draw no bet (-110 at DraftKings)

Mexico vs Poland side analysis

Mexico have not recorded a victory against any of the last nine World Cup participants they've faced. They have won just two of their last six matches, and three of their last nine. 

Poland have recorded 1-0 wins in each of their last two outings, their only wins in their last six matches overall. They’ve won four of their nine matches in 2022 and lost three.

Poland and Mexico have played each other four times, with the most recent coming in 2017. Mexico won that match 1-0 after a pair of draws. Poland won 3-1 in their only World Cup meeting back in 1978. 

This is one of the most evenly split three-way moneyline markets you will ever see. Nearly every book has all three options within +160 and +200, with Mexico slightly favored ahead of Poland and the draw being the least-bet outcome. 

Mexico vs Poland Over/Under analysis

The Total in this match is down from your typical 2.5 mark and is closer to 2.0 at most books. As such, you will want to consider alternatives if you think the number will go Under, or possibly parlay it.

The number is low for a reason. Poland have seen two or fewer goals in each of their last four matches and in six of their nine this year. They also don’t score a lot themselves, with two or fewer team goals in all nine matches in 2020.

Mexico’s goal-scoring issues have been well documented above, and while they scored six combined this month in friendlies, that’s not what they’ve typically been doing. In 17 matches this calendar year, they’ve been shut out six times and have scored multiple goals only seven times. Ten of those matches have seen two or fewer goals scored. When you limit that to just World Cup opposition, Mexico have played four times this year — and didn’t score in any of them.

Mexico vs Poland game info

Mexico vs Poland key injuries

Mexico: Raul Jimenez F (Questionable).
Poland: None.

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