Morocco vs Croatia World Cup Picks and Predictions: Tighter Contest Than Odds Suggest

Croatia’s run to the 2018 World Cup final was one of the highlights of that tournament and some familiar faces are back for another attempt in Qatar, starting with a showdown against Morocco on Wednesday as Group F gets underway.

Luka Modric, playing in his last World Cup at age 37, is still the straw that stirs the drink for Croatia – and Zlatko Dalic has picked a squad that balances major international experience and an injection of youth.

In what should be one of the tightest World Cup groups, Morocco is ready to make some noise too. The Atlas Lions don’t have Croatia’s recent track record, but there is deep-rooted confidence after a dominant qualifying phase.

Our World Cup picks and predictions below get you ready for Morocco vs Croatia on Wednesday, November 23.

Morocco vs Croatia odds

Morocco vs Croatia picks and predictions

These two teams took rather different paths to clinch a World Cup spot – Croatia stumbled through a lightweight qualifying group and only snatched the top spot in the final group game, whereas Morocco had a 100% record in group play and breezed past the Democratic Republic of Congo in the playoff.

But there are similarities too, which sets up this opening Group F fixture to be a tight, even contest. Both nations are crossing their fingers that a reliable goalscorer emerges to finish off sweeping midfield moves.

For Croatia, Marko Livaja should get the first chance to lead the line, while Morocco is counting on Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub El Kaabi. Look for lots of slick build-up play but a less clinical end product in the penalty area.

Likewise, both have a couple of elite talents that the rest of the team fits around. For Croatia, it’s Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic who give the Vatreni their identity; for Morocco, it’s PSG’s Achraf Hakimi and the recalled Hakim Ziyech, who has a point to prove after limited opportunities at Chelsea. When these key figures are subdued, performances tend to suffer.

Space in midfield will come at a premium on Wednesday, with a trio of central midfielders for each team dueling to get a grip on possession. Much will depend on whether Morocco can limit Modric’s influence and force him to drop deep to get on the ball.

If a stalemate ensues, the mindset for both teams could shift towards avoiding defeat in this opening fixture and settling for a point. I’ll be grabbing the solid odds for the game to finish as a draw.

My best bet: Draw (+225 at bet365)

Morocco vs Croatia side analysis

Though the World Cup odds point to a Croatia win as the likeliest result, the Atlas Lions have a strong case too. With a large contingent of Morocco fans either based in Qatar or travelling for the tournament, there should be something resembling a home advantage for Hakimi & Co. at Al Bayt Stadium.

Of course, Morocco’s smooth on-field qualification for the World Cup didn’t come without off-field drama. Despite clinching a spot in Qatar, boss Vahid Halilhodzic was sacked this summer, with Walid Regragui installed as his replacement.

Regragui has only had a few months to settle into the job, but Morocco should benefit from a more harmonious dressing room under his watch – not to mention the return of Ziyech, who wasn’t featuring under Halilhodzic. I expect that to translate to good performances in Group F and a sharp outing against Georgia in the team’s final warm-up game was a positive sign.

Croatia enter the tournament on a five-game winning run, including victories over France and Denmark in the UEFA Nations League. While Dalic will be counting on several players who weren’t starters in 2018, the new crop has impressed so far, particularly the young pairing of Josip Sutalo and Josko Gvardiol in the center of defense, and the team seems to have overcome a wobbly patch after the last World Cup.

Morocco vs Croatia Over/Under analysis

This fixture is sure to serve up sublime passing and sweeping attacks – but that doesn’t necessarily mean a stack of goals. Neither team is likely to waste possession or willingly adopt a defensive game plan, but equally Croatia and Morocco are both light on proven strikers. 

Morocco kept two clean sheets in a pair of September friendlies, winning 2-0 against Chile before a goalless draw with Paraguay, but losing Amine Harit to a knee injury on the eve of the tournament is a big loss for the Atlas Lions’ midfield game plan.

Croatia had 1-0 wins over France and Denmark this year and only managed a single goal in a pre-tournament friendly victory against Saudi Arabia. So, it’s easy to picture this matchup following a similar low-scoring script.

Under 2.5 goals has some value here, with neither team boasting the type of strikeforce that could blow the game wide open.

Morocco vs Croatia game info

Morocco vs Croatia key injuries

Morocco: Amine Harit CM (Out).
Croatia: No key injuries to report. 

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