Morocco vs France Prop Bets: Ziyech Proves Effective Against Leaky French Defense

Few people had Morocco anywhere on their list of teams to make a deep run at the 2022 World Cup. That matters little now, as they will carry the hopes of an entire continent and region this afternoon, seeking to become the first African or Arab nation to reach a World Cup final when they square off against France in the second semifinal match.

To reach their goal, Morocco will have to defy World Cup odds and beat a French team led by superstar Kylian Mbappe, whose five goals lead all players at the tournament. They’ll also need to rely on their stellar defense which has allowed a single goal throughout the tournament. Meanwhile, France will hope to continue their terrific offensive output that has seen them score 12 goals through five matches.

While the match market sees France as overwhelming favorites, the prop markets offer quite a bit of variance and opportunity for value plays. Here are the three best World Cup prop picks I’ve found for the semifinal match between Morocco and France.

Morocco vs France World Cup props

• Ziyech to score or assist (+290)
• First booking after 27th minute (-120)
• Dembele Under 0.5 shots on target (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Morocco vs France World Cup props

Ziyech gets involved

Mbappe is a terrific player, and so much of what France excels at comes from his attacking down their left flank. Just don’t expect him to defend. In their 2-1 win over England, Mbappe registered just seven touches in his defensive half of the pitch. Poland and Australia showed the blueprint for how to attack this deficiency, and the Three Lions did the same in the quarterfinals. 

England repeatedly utilized the open space behind Mbappe by hitting long balls across from their left to right flank, with Bukayo Saka often getting the ball on a switch and finding himself in a one-on-one situation with left back Theo Hernandez. Saka caused problems throughout the match, and it was his run into the box that led to being fouled for England’s goal from the penalty spot. 

Against both Belgium and Canada, Moroccan right winger Hakim Ziyech has been instrumental in the counter-attacking play, and his ability to cut inside on his stronger left foot makes him a danger for Hernandez and center back Dayot Upamecano.

Hernandez committed the foul for England’s second penalty and Upamecano was lucky to not concede a penalty earlier in the match, and both have shown issues against dribblers with pace.

Three of Morocco’s five goals in this tournament have come from the right side, with right back Achraf Hakimi setting up another. With Hakimi likely pinned back to prevent Mbappe from doing damage, it will be Ziyech’s night on the flank. Throw in Ziyech’s free-kick ability and I love getting this price for his involvement in a goal against a French side yet to keep a clean sheet in the tournament. 

Prop: Hakim Ziyech to score or assist (+290 at FanDuel)

Nothing early

France have had a bit of an issue with being naughty early in their matches at this World Cup. Three of their last four matches have seen them receive a yellow card prior to halftime, with forward Antoine Griezmann having his name taken with just two minutes left in first-half regulation against England. However, none of those bookings have taken place in the opening 30 minutes.

In fact, of their five matches so far in the tournament, just twice has a player been booked inside 30 minutes — and both of those were in the Denmark match where two Danish players were shown yellow cards inside 25 minutes. That match was highly physical and contentious early, with three cards shown before the break.

Early bookings haven’t been an issue for Morocco, who played a very clean tournament until their win over Portugal in the quarterfinals. Substitute Walid Cheddira was shown a pair of yellow cards in stoppage time as they clung to a slim 1-0 lead, but in their first four matches, they saw a total of two yellows.

Their style of play also hasn’t seen them dominate enough to draw fouls on the other team early on. Canada was the exception to that, but the Canadians were overwhelmed early and committed two bookable offenses prior to halftime.

Enter referee Cesar Arturo Ramos Palazuelos, the CONCACAF official who will be controlling the proceedings on Wednesday. He’s been the man in the middle three times in this tournament, and has shown a very calm presence while allowing plenty of fouls without actually showing cards. His one match in charge of Morocco saw them defeat Belgium 2-0, and he showed just two cards that day despite a combined 24 fouls. 

While three of his seven yellow cards handed out have come prior to the half, just one has come before the 27th minute of the match. Semifinals tend to be cagier affairs and have trended towards lower card totals in past tournaments, and I expect the referee to manage this one cautiously. I doubt we see anybody getting booked early in this one, and that’s why it’s one of my favorite props of the match.

Prop: Time of first booking after 27th minute (-120 at FanDuel)

Off target

With an xG of just 0.48 and only two shots on goal in the tournament, it hasn't been the best World Cup for Ousmane Dembele. He’s taken just three shots total through five matches — four of which he started in — and both of those came on shots taken from outside the area.

While he’s yet to miss a big chance, his first touch has often caused him to not even be able to have one. A case in point was the layoff to him in the box against England where he should’ve easily scored, but his touch to control the pass took him so far wide of the area he was never able to even attempt a shot.

Now he’s likely to start against a Moroccan side that have allowed only nine shots on goal in the entire tournament, including having played an extra 30 minutes against Spain. Seven of those shots have come from outside the area, and more than half of those were from free kicks

For as talented as France are, the majority of their efforts on goal are coming from a few players. Just five of their eight shots against England were on frame, and three of those came from Olivier Giroud. Against Poland, they had eight efforts on goal, and Giroud had three of those as well. 

Dembele has been more of a creator than a shooter, with an emphasis on finding Giroud. In addition, more of France’s shooting chances from the right side have come from the foot of Antoine Griezmann, who has been involved in the eighth-most attacking sequences in the tournament. 

Given how congested Morocco have made the box for their opponents in this tournament, Dembele’s only hope to get a shot on goal is likely going to come from outside the box. While he’s done so twice in this tournament, he’s far down the pecking order of who will likely be on the ball in those situations. I’ll take the Under as I anticipate the bulk of the chances to go through Mbappe and Griezmann.

Prop: Ousmane Dembele Under 0.5 shots on target (-110 at bet365)

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