Portugal vs Uruguay World Cup Picks and Predictions: Portugal Punch Ticket to Round of 16

Four years ago, Uruguay advanced to the 2018 World Cup quarterfinals in Russia with a 2-1 win over Portugal. On Monday, the Iberian nation can exact some revenge when they take on Uruguay in the second round of Group H play in the 2022 World Cup.

A victory for Portugal would give them six points and guarantee their spot in the Round of 16, and the ability to potentially rest their stars against South Korea. It would also put Uruguay — decidedly underdogs per World Cup odds — in a precarious situation, which is why the South American side will be out to secure a result at all costs.

Will Portugal enjoy a bit of payback on Monday, or will Uruguay throw a wrench in their plans? Find out in our World Cup picks and predictions for Monday, November 28. 

Portugal vs Uruguay odds

Portugal vs Uruguay picks and predictions

Portugal’s 3-2 win over Ghana on Thursday was exciting, but not without controversy. Scoreless at the break, Portugal broke the deadlock thanks to a somewhat dubious penalty awarded to Cristiano Ronaldo. The star striker buried his effort, making him the first player to score in five different World Cup tournaments, for the first of five goals that would be scored in the second half.

Ghana would level the scoreline just eight minutes later, but a pair of goals in a three-minute span from Joao Felix and Rafael Leao was enough to withstand Ghana’s late surge. The African side nearly stole a point at the death when Portugal’s keeper put the ball down not realizing Inaki Williams was behind him, but his defense bailed him out.

Uruguay came out of their opening match against South Korea with a solitary point, after the highly-favored side was unable to break through and find the back of the net. While they were terrific defensively, not allowing a single effort on goal, they put just one of their own 10 shots on target. 

They did have a chance just before halftime when Diego Godin headed against the frame from a corner. Their best chance came very late when Federico Valverde smashed the woodwork from far out in the 90th minute. 

Despite having two outstanding attackers in Darwin Nunez and the aging Luis Suarez, Uruguay were devoid of the creativity needed to break down South Korea’s defense. Portugal may provide more opportunities to them in this match, but they’re solid enough defensively without sitting back. The problem for Uruguay will be Portugal’s lethal attack. It remains to be seen whether Ronaldo will lead the line on Monday, given manager Fernando Santos hinted earlier in the week he might go with a striker who can better press Uruguay’s back line.

Regardless of who starts, they have plenty of options in attack, and Leao will possibly come in against tired legs. Unlike South Korea, they also have two midfielders in Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes — who had two assists versus Ghana — who can break down the Uruguayan defense and find their forwards in dangerous areas.

Portugal will want to secure their place with a match to spare, and they have the weapons to do just that. Uruguay’s desperation will leave them a bit too exposed, and I favor the Portuguese to take advantage and get revenge four years later. Take Portugal at even odds (or as close as possible if the line moves) to claim all three points.  

My best bet: Portugal moneyline (+100 at PointsBet)

Portugal vs Uruguay side analysis

Uruguay are decided underdogs in this match. The three-way line has the draw being more likely than an Uruguay victory by some margin, which makes sense given their offensive struggles against South Korea.

Portugal have won seven of their previous 10 matches, with only two defeats in that span coming at Switzerland and against Spain. They’ve also lost just once in their last 13 group-stage matches at the World Cup. 

Uruguay come into the match with just two wins in their last five matches, although their only defeat came to Iran. They’ve won just one of their last four matches against sides in this year’s World Cup tournament. 

Portugal vs Uruguay Over/Under analysis

Portugal’s matches have been fairly high-scoring of late and were mostly one-sided before Ghana. They’ve scored at least two goals in their last seven victories, and three of their last four matches have seen at least four total goals scored.

Uruguay have been involved in low-scoring affairs, though, with seven of their last 10 matches seeing two or fewer total. They also don’t allow much, with just two goals conceded in that span. Combined with their struggles to score, the Under 2.5 is heavily favored for a reason.

One market you may want to pay attention to is the second half total. In Portugal’s last four matches there have been a total of 14 goals scored–and nine of those have come after halftime. 

Portugal vs Uruguay game info

Portugal vs Uruguay key injuries

Portugal: None.
Uruguay: Ronaldo Araujo D (Doubtful), Luis Suarez F (Questionable).

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