Qatar vs Ecuador World Cup Picks and Predictions: Goals Stay At a Minimum

The eyes of the world will be on Qatar when the World Cup kicks off on Sunday afternoon. The host nation will open festivities with a Group A match against Ecuador, as both sides hope to get a leg up in a difficult group that also includes the Netherlands and Senegal.

Ecuador has the better talent on paper and have proven themselves against better teams, paving the way for World Cup odds to install them as favorites for this matchup. However, Qatar will be boosted by their home fans, and the knowledge that no host nation have ever lost their opening match in the previous 18 iterations of this tournament.

Can that streak continue? Find out in our Qatar vs. Ecuador World Cup betting picks and predictions for Sunday, November 20. 

Qatar vs Ecuador odds

Qatar vs Ecuador picks and predictions

Qatar found themselves as the top seed thanks to being awarded the tournament. That said, they’re not an awful team. Ranked 50th in the FIFA world rankings, the side reached the semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup a year ago, and come into this match with a four-match win streak. 

Qatar employs a 5-3-2 formation and likes to hit on the break. Many of the starters are familiar with each other, as quite a few are teammates at Al-Sadd SC within the Qatar Stars League. One of those players, Akram Afif, formerly played in La Liga and is in top form, with 14 goals and 17 assists through 18 league matches. 

With that said, this is a big step up in competition for many of the Qatar players. Their recent friendlies all came against teams that failed to qualify for the tournament, including a 2-2 draw against a Chilean side that had lost their previous six matches. 

Ecuador reached the World Cup after finishing fourth in CONMEBOL qualification. Their play in the South American qualifiers led Brazilian manager Tite — after they drew 1-1 with Ecuador —  to nominate them as a team that will shock some at the World Cup. Ecuador conceded just 19 goals in 18 qualifiers, scoring 27 times and winning seven with just six defeats. 

Ecuador thrives on denying scoring opportunities with their stingy defense. In six matches this year —including contests against fellow World Cup participants Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Japan — the Ecuadorians have yet to concede a single goal. They play a high-pressure setup that relies on winning the ball in the middle and launching counterattacks — and it’s working to perfection in 2022.

The biggest question for Ecuador is whether they can score enough goals. While they’re not conceding, they’re also not scoring. They’ve managed just two goals in those six contests — one of which came against Cape Verde — and they’ve endured three straight 0-0 draws. Veteran forward Enner Valencia isn’t the player he once was, but the 33-year-old does have 12 goals in 11 matches for Turkish side Fenerbahce this season.

I believe Ecuador are going to be a difficult team to beat at this World Cup. In fact, I have them advancing out of the group over a banged-up Senegal team, in part because of this match. Ecuador’s pace and style of play will be a real problem for Qatar, who have shown over the past two years that they struggle to maintain possession and poise when put under pressure. 

While I feel strongly that Ecuador will come away with all three points, their offensive struggles still leave the possibility of a draw wide open. That’s why my best bet in this match is for Ecuador to keep yet another clean sheet. 

Qatar does their best work in matches where they can counterattack, and Ecuador doesn’t really allow many of those to develop. As such, I see it being very difficult for the hosts to get many opportunities, much less converting one. Take Qatar to have a bagel next to their name when the final whistle blows. 

My best bet: Ecuador to record a clean sheet (+140 at PointsBet)

Qatar vs Ecuador side analysis

A Qatar win is the least-expected outcome of this match according to the bookmakers. A Qatar win pays better than 2/1, while Ecuador are a slight favorite to win. This is despite the hosts being on an unbeaten run of five straight, with their last defeat coming 2-0 to Canada in September. 

Ecuador have gone six unbeaten themselves, with a 3-0 loss to Ecuador being their only defeat in the last 10 outings. However, they’ve also won just twice in that span. They have played five teams that will participate in the World Cup, and have done well against those opponents.

These two sides have faced off just once, in a friendly in 2018. That match saw Qatar win 4-3 thanks in part to Ecuador finishing with just nine players. 

Qatar vs Ecuador Over/Under analysis

These two teams like low-scoring affairs, and the books are accounting for that. If you were hoping to bet on the Under 2.5 in this match, I’d suggest you either parlay it or look at the Asian markets as it has been juiced so much that some books will require you to risk twice your rewards. 

Qatar likes to sit back and counter and steal matches, and that’s worked to keep scores low. Just two of their last eight matches have seen three or more goals scored, and they’ve kept four clean sheets in that span.

Forget the total going Over in Ecuador’s matches. Not only have they not seen three or more goals in any of their last six matches, they’ve seen just two total goals in that entire span. Zero-zero draws are their forte, with four in their last six outings, including against World Cup participants Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. They’ve not conceded a single goal in that timeframe, either. 

Qatar vs Ecuador game info

Qatar vs Ecuador key injuries

Qatar: No injuries to report.
Ecuador: No injuries to report.

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