New York @ Miami preview

Marlins Park

Last Meeting ( Jul 13, 2014 ) Miami 1, NY Mets 9


Zack Wheeler is one of the young arms the New York Mets are counting on to fuel a turnaround next season and the 24-year-old has spent the past two months showing why he is considered one of the team’s top pitching prospects. Wheeler, who is 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his past 11 starts, takes the mound Monday as the Mets open a three-game set at the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have seen plenty of good pitching lately, losing six times on a nine-game road trip and scoring a total of five runs in their past four defeats.

Miami is 37-31 at home this season but is nine games under .500 on the road. With 14 of their final 27 games away from home, the Marlins need to play well in this week’s home games against the Mets and Atlanta to bolster their chances of finishing with a winning record for the first time since 2009. New York closer Jenrry Mejia recorded two saves against Philadelphia over the weekend and is 21-for-24 in save opportunities since moving to the bullpen in early May.

TV: 1:10 p.m. ET, SNY (New York), FSN Florida (Miami)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Zack Wheeler (9-9, 3.44 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (10-6, 2.75)

Wheeler was 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA on June 26, but has allowed two earned runs or less 10 times in his past 11 outings. He won six decisions in a row before losing to Atlanta on Wednesday, allowing two earned runs (three total) with seven strikeouts in seven innings. Wheeler is 2-0 in four starts against the Marlins this season, giving up just two earned runs and striking out 31 in 27 2/3 innings.

Like Wheeler, Alvarez also had a winning streak end in his last outing, giving up five runs on eight hits Wednesday to fall to the Los Angeles Angels and end a four-start streak. He gave up just seven earned runs in 28 innings in his four previous starts. Alvarez makes his fifth start of 2014 against New York, going 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA against the Mets.

WALK-OFFS

1. New York rookie 2B Dilson Herrera drove in his first career run Sunday, one day after collecting his first major-league hit.

2. Miami 2B Donovan Solano is 9-for-23 in his past six games, raising his batting average from .231 to .249.

3. New York CF Juan Lagares has at least one hit in seven of his past nine contests.

PREDICTION: Marlins 4, Mets 3

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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