MLB Picks

I’m playing the Over because this number is low enough to buy a Yankees offensive rebound against the right starter. Jax's barrel rate is a problem against an offense that still ranks in the top three of the sport in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This enables at least one crooked number inning, and that may be all you need.

There are multiple ways to attack Mike Burrows tonight, including over earned runs, Nationals F5 team total over, and the under on his outs. The Washington Nationals enter as the third highest rated offense on Batters-Box’s current season ratings, featuring four elite rated hitters and two strongly rated bats. Burrows grades poorly across ISO, hard contact, strikeout, and ground ball metrics in this matchup profile. Over last 12 games, Washington has posted a 132 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .821 OPS, and .225 ISO. They are second highest scoring F5 offense at 3.11 runs, with early damage likely to shorten his outing.

The Brewers have the highest xwOBA and are averaging 5.1 runs per game over the past 30 days, and they also rank fifth in wOBA against righties for the season. So, with Cardinals starter Dustin May allowing a healthy 46.3% hard-hit rate, I’m confident in the Brewers putting enough runs on the scoreboard to pull away tonight.

Walker Buehler hasn’t allowed more than three runs at home all year, and he has held Bottom-15 opponents in OPS to two runs or less in all four starts in San Diego.

Although the San Diego Padres have improved offensively of late, it’s important to remember they rank dead last in runs, batting average, and OPS. They’re not a team that runs it up.

Bet to -120.

Giants offense has been rolling over their last six games, with strong production even accounting for Coors Field. They return home to face a struggling Kevin Gausman, who has allowed a 9.00 ERA, 6.04 xERA, and 2.14 WHIP over his last three starts, along with a 6.58 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across his last five. According to Batters-Box, San Francisco features six elite rated hitters and one strongly rated bat, making them the second highest rated offense on the slate. I like Rafael Devers in this matchup, but prefer the full team approach for run production at plus money tonight.

Kyle Freeland (91 Stuff+) and Eric Lauer (88 Stuff+) both aren't MLB caliber, and the wind is blowing out to dead center. Freeland's third percentile xBA (.294) is a major concern against L.A.'s league-best .266 xBA at the dish, and Lauer allows too much loud contact (ninth percentile barrel rate) in the air (eighth percentile groundball rate). 

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.